predict_worlds.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from bs4 import BeautifulSoup\n",
    "from bs4.element import Tag\n",
    "import json\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import pickle\n",
    "import requests\n",
    "from statsmodels.formula.api import ols"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "with open('seasons.pickle') as f:\n",
    "    seasons = pickle.load(f)\n",
    "for year, season in seasons.iteritems():\n",
    "    print year,\n",
    "    season.load_scores()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "with open('pd_data/name_fixes_all.json') as f:\n",
    "    name_fixes = json.load(f)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "owg = seasons['2018'].events[-1]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "results18 = {}\n",
    "for discipline in ('men', 'ladies', 'pairs', 'dance'):\n",
    "    results18[discipline] = pd.read_csv('pd_data/results18_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    print results18[discipline].columns\n",
    "    results18[discipline].drop('Unnamed: 0', inplace=True, axis=1)\n",
    "    if discipline != 'pairs':\n",
    "        results18[discipline].drop(u'Unnamed: 0.1', inplace=True, axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 47,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "for index, discipline_name in enumerate(('men', 'ladies', 'pairs', 'dance')):\n",
    "    discipline = owg.disciplines[index]\n",
    "    df = pd.read_csv(discipline.results_csv)\n",
    "    if df.dtypes['Short Rank'] != np.dtype('int64'):\n",
    "        df = df[df['Short Rank'] != 'WD']\n",
    "    num_short = len(df)\n",
    "    num_free = np.max([int(rank) for rank in df['Free Rank'] if rank not in ('DNQ', 'WD')])\n",
    "    df['Num Short Scorecards'] = pd.Series([num_short for _ in xrange(num_short)])\n",
    "    df['Num Free Scorecards'] = pd.Series([num_free for _ in xrange(num_short)])\n",
    "#     df['Season'] = pd.Series([season.champ_year for _ in xrange(num_short)])\n",
    "\n",
    "    df['Short Start'] = df.apply(lambda row: discipline.segments[0].scorecards[int(row['Short Rank']) - 1].starting_number, axis=1)\n",
    "    df['Free Start'] = df.apply(lambda row:\n",
    "                         None if str(row['Free Rank']).isalpha() else\n",
    "                         discipline.segments[1].scorecards[int(row['Free Rank']) - 1].starting_number, \n",
    "                         axis=1)\n",
    "\n",
    "    df.Name = df.apply(lambda row: name_fixes.get(row.Name, row.Name), axis=1)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    results18[discipline_name] = pd.concat([results18[discipline_name], df])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 53,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "for discipline, df in results18.iteritems():\n",
    "    df.Nation = df.apply(lambda row: 'RUS' if row.Nation == 'OAR' else row.Nation, axis=1)\n",
    "    df.to_csv('pd_data/results18all_' + discipline + '.csv')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "results18['ladies'].Nation = results18['ladies'].apply(lambda row: 'RUS' if row.Nation == 'OAR' else )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def get_entries(url):\n",
    "    page = requests.get(url)\n",
    "    soup = BeautifulSoup(page.content, 'html.parser')\n",
    "    entries = []\n",
    "    for tr in soup.find_all('tr')[1:]:\n",
    "        for child in tr.children:\n",
    "            if isinstance(child, Tag) and child.attrs.get('class') == ['first'] and child.text.isdigit():\n",
    "                skater = tr.find('a').text\n",
    "                for td in tr.find_all('td'):\n",
    "                    if len(td.text) == 3 and td.text.isalpha():\n",
    "                        country = td.text\n",
    "                        entries.append((skater, country))\n",
    "    return entries"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "entries = {}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "for discipline, url in (('men', 'http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03108710.htm'),\n",
    "                        ('ladies', 'http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03108711.htm'),\n",
    "                        ('pairs', 'http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03108712.htm'),\n",
    "                        ('dance', 'http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03108713.htm')):\n",
    "    entries[discipline] = get_entries(url)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "for discipline, entrylist in entries.iteritems():\n",
    "    new_entries = []\n",
    "    for skater, country in entrylist:\n",
    "        new_entries.append((name_fixes.get(skater.strip(), skater.strip()), country))\n",
    "    entries[discipline] = new_entries"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "entries_country = entries\n",
    "entries = {discipline: map(lambda entry: entry[0], entry_list) for discipline, entry_list in entries.iteritems()}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "component_to_type = {\n",
    "    'Skating Skills': 'ss',\n",
    "    'Transitions': 'tr',\n",
    "    'Performance': 'pe',\n",
    "    'Composition': 'co',\n",
    "    'Interpretation': 'in'\n",
    "}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 131,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "\n",
      "Alisa STOMAKHINA event\n",
      "Elisabetta LECCARDI event\n",
      "Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA event\n",
      "Antonina DUBININA free\n",
      "\n",
      "Elizaveta KASHITSYNA / Mark MAGYAR event\n",
      "\n",
      "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE free\n",
      "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG free\n",
      "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS event\n",
      "\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for discipline in ('men', 'ladies', 'pairs', 'dance'):\n",
    "    elements = pd.read_csv('pd_data/elements_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    elements18 = pd.read_csv('pd_data/elements_' + discipline + '18all.csv')\n",
    "    elements = pd.concat([elements, elements18])\n",
    "    short_list = []\n",
    "    free_list = []\n",
    "    comp_list = []\n",
    "    for skater in entries[discipline]:\n",
    "        for component, comp_type in component_to_type.iteritems():\n",
    "            comp_list.append({'component': component, 'comp_type': comp_type, 'skater': skater})\n",
    "        last_event = elements[elements.skater == skater].event.unique()\n",
    "        if len(last_event) == 0:\n",
    "            print skater, 'event'\n",
    "            continue\n",
    "        last_event = last_event[-1]\n",
    "        last_elements = elements[elements.skater == skater]\n",
    "        last_elements = last_elements[last_elements.event == last_event]\n",
    "        short_elements = last_elements[last_elements.segment.str.contains('short')]\n",
    "        short_list.append(short_elements)\n",
    "        if len(last_elements.segment.unique()) != 2:\n",
    "            last_free_elements = elements[elements.skater == skater]\n",
    "            last_free = last_free_elements[last_free_elements.segment.str.contains('free')].segment.unique()\n",
    "            if len(last_free) == 0:\n",
    "                print skater, 'free'\n",
    "                continue\n",
    "            last_free_elements = last_free_elements[last_free_elements.segment == last_free[-1]]\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            last_free_elements = last_elements[last_elements.segment.str.contains('free')]\n",
    "        free_list.append(last_free_elements)\n",
    "    pd.concat(short_list).to_csv('pd_data/elements_worlds_short_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    pd.concat(free_list).to_csv('pd_data/elements_worlds_free_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    pd.DataFrame(comp_list).to_csv('pd_data/components_worlds_short_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    pd.DataFrame(comp_list).to_csv('pd_data/components_worlds_free_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    print"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 153,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "for discipline in ('men', 'ladies', 'pairs', 'dance'):\n",
    "    results = pd.read_csv('pd_data/results_nowd_nofra15_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    results18 = pd.read_csv('pd_data/results18all_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    results = pd.concat([results, results18])\n",
    "    results['Short Score'] = results['Short Score'].astype('float')\n",
    "    results['Points'] = results['Points'].astype('float')\n",
    "    \n",
    "    short_best = {skater: np.max(results[results.Name == skater]['Short Score']) for skater in results.Name.unique()}\n",
    "    short_best['Alisa STOMAKHINA'] = 40.\n",
    "    short_best['Elisabetta LECCARDI'] = 50.\n",
    "    short_best['Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA'] = 65.\n",
    "    short_best['Elizaveta KASHITSYNA / Mark MAGYAR'] = 45.\n",
    "    short_best['Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS'] = 58.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    has_free = results[results['Free Rank'] != 'DNQ']\n",
    "    has_free = has_free[has_free['Free Rank'] != 'WD']\n",
    "    has_free['Free Score'] = has_free['Free Score'].astype('float')\n",
    "    free_best = {skater: np.max(has_free[has_free.Name == skater]['Free Score']) for skater in has_free.Name.unique()}\n",
    "    total_best = {skater: np.max(results[results.Name == skater].Points) for skater in results.Name.unique()}\n",
    "    free_best['Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA'] = 130.\n",
    "    total_best['Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA'] = 199.68\n",
    "    \n",
    "    short_predictions = pd.Series()\n",
    "    for skater in entries[discipline]:\n",
    "        if skater not in short_best:\n",
    "            print skater, 'short'\n",
    "            continue\n",
    "        short_predictions[skater] = short_best[skater]        \n",
    "    short_predictions = pd.Series(short_predictions).sort_values(ascending=False)\n",
    "    num_qualify = 16 if discipline == 'pairs' else 24\n",
    "    num_qualify = 20 if discipline == 'dance' else num_qualify\n",
    "    free_qualify = short_predictions[:num_qualify]\n",
    "    free_qualify_total = free_qualify.copy()\n",
    "    dnq = short_predictions[num_qualify:]\n",
    "    for skater in free_qualify.index:\n",
    "        if skater not in total_best:\n",
    "            print 'total', skater\n",
    "            continue\n",
    "        free_qualify_total[skater] = total_best[skater]\n",
    "        if skater not in free_best:\n",
    "            print 'free', skater\n",
    "            continue\n",
    "        free_qualify[skater] += free_best[skater]\n",
    "    free_predictions = pd.DataFrame(pd.concat([free_qualify, dnq]).sort_values(ascending=False))\n",
    "    free_total_predictions = pd.DataFrame(pd.concat([free_qualify_total, dnq]).sort_values(ascending=False))\n",
    "    free_predictions['rank'] = [i + 1 for i in xrange(len(free_predictions))]\n",
    "    free_total_predictions['rank'] = [i + 1 for i in xrange(len(free_total_predictions))]\n",
    "    free_predictions.to_csv('fits/worlds_predictions_both_pbs_' + discipline + '.csv')\n",
    "    free_total_predictions.to_csv('fits/worlds_predictions_total_pb_' + discipline + '.csv')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 110,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num_skaters = 20."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 112,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_free_start = {name_fixes.get(k, k): v/num_skaters for k, v in dance_free_start.iteritems()}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 113,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance18 = pd.read_csv('pd_data/results18all_dance.csv')\n",
    "history = pd.read_csv('pd_data/results_nowd_nofra15_dance.csv')\n",
    "history = history[history.Season >= 2011]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 114,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "153"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 114,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "individual_bests_short = {skater: np.max(map(float, history[history.Name == skater]['Short Score']))\n",
    "                          for skater in history.Name.get_values()}\n",
    "len(individual_bests_short)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 115,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "125"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 115,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "have_frees = history[history['Free Rank'] != 'DNQ']\n",
    "have_frees = have_frees[have_frees['Free Rank'] != 'WD']\n",
    "individual_bests_free = {skater: np.max(map(float, have_frees[have_frees.Name == skater]['Free Score']))\n",
    "                         for skater in have_frees.Name.get_values()}\n",
    "len(individual_bests_free)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 116,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "(52.049999999999997, 81.939999999999998)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 116,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "med_short = np.median(individual_bests_short.values())\n",
    "med_free = np.median(individual_bests_free.values())\n",
    "med_short, med_free"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 117,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance18['normalized_short_start'] = dance18.apply(lambda row: float(row['Short Start']) / row['Num Short Scorecards'], axis=1)\n",
    "dance18['normalized_free_start'] = dance18.apply(lambda row: None if pd.isna(row['Free Start']) else float(row['Free Start']) / row['Num Free Scorecards'], axis=1)\n",
    "dance18['reputation_short'] = dance18.apply(lambda row: individual_bests_short.get(row.Name, med_short), axis=1)\n",
    "dance18['reputation_free'] = dance18.apply(lambda row: individual_bests_free.get(row.Name, med_free), axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 120,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance18.rename({'Short Score': 'short_score', 'Free Score': 'free_score'}, inplace=True, axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 121,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance18 = dance18[pd.notnull(dance18.normalized_free_start)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 122,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance18.free_score = dance18.free_score.astype('float')\n",
    "dance18.reputation_free = dance18.reputation_free.astype('float')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 123,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "free_dance_model = ols('free_score ~ normalized_free_start + reputation_free',\n",
    "                        data=dance18).fit()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 124,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<table class=\"simpletable\">\n",
       "<caption>OLS Regression Results</caption>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Dep. Variable:</th>       <td>free_score</td>    <th>  R-squared:         </th> <td>   0.845</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Model:</th>                   <td>OLS</td>       <th>  Adj. R-squared:    </th> <td>   0.842</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Method:</th>             <td>Least Squares</td>  <th>  F-statistic:       </th> <td>   315.7</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Date:</th>             <td>Fri, 23 Mar 2018</td> <th>  Prob (F-statistic):</th> <td>1.19e-47</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Time:</th>                 <td>21:59:46</td>     <th>  Log-Likelihood:    </th> <td> -363.08</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>No. Observations:</th>      <td>   119</td>      <th>  AIC:               </th> <td>   732.2</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Df Residuals:</th>          <td>   116</td>      <th>  BIC:               </th> <td>   740.5</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Df Model:</th>              <td>     2</td>      <th>                     </th>     <td> </td>   \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Covariance Type:</th>      <td>nonrobust</td>    <th>                     </th>     <td> </td>   \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<table class=\"simpletable\">\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "            <td></td>               <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>t</th>      <th>P>|t|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Intercept</th>             <td>   30.6321</td> <td>    3.857</td> <td>    7.941</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   22.992</td> <td>   38.272</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>normalized_free_start</th> <td>   15.9626</td> <td>    2.242</td> <td>    7.120</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   11.522</td> <td>   20.403</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>reputation_free</th>       <td>    0.6085</td> <td>    0.047</td> <td>   12.906</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.515</td> <td>    0.702</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<table class=\"simpletable\">\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Omnibus:</th>       <td> 8.143</td> <th>  Durbin-Watson:     </th> <td>   1.826</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Prob(Omnibus):</th> <td> 0.017</td> <th>  Jarque-Bera (JB):  </th> <td>   9.873</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Skew:</th>          <td>-0.401</td> <th>  Prob(JB):          </th> <td> 0.00718</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "<tr>\n",
       "  <th>Kurtosis:</th>      <td> 4.161</td> <th>  Cond. No.          </th> <td>    831.</td>\n",
       "</tr>\n",
       "</table>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "<class 'statsmodels.iolib.summary.Summary'>\n",
       "\"\"\"\n",
       "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
       "==============================================================================\n",
       "Dep. Variable:             free_score   R-squared:                       0.845\n",
       "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.842\n",
       "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     315.7\n",
       "Date:                Fri, 23 Mar 2018   Prob (F-statistic):           1.19e-47\n",
       "Time:                        21:59:46   Log-Likelihood:                -363.08\n",
       "No. Observations:                 119   AIC:                             732.2\n",
       "Df Residuals:                     116   BIC:                             740.5\n",
       "Df Model:                           2                                         \n",
       "Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                         \n",
       "=========================================================================================\n",
       "                            coef    std err          t      P>|t|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
       "-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
       "Intercept                30.6321      3.857      7.941      0.000      22.992      38.272\n",
       "normalized_free_start    15.9626      2.242      7.120      0.000      11.522      20.403\n",
       "reputation_free           0.6085      0.047     12.906      0.000       0.515       0.702\n",
       "==============================================================================\n",
       "Omnibus:                        8.143   Durbin-Watson:                   1.826\n",
       "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.017   Jarque-Bera (JB):                9.873\n",
       "Skew:                          -0.401   Prob(JB):                      0.00718\n",
       "Kurtosis:                       4.161   Cond. No.                         831.\n",
       "==============================================================================\n",
       "\n",
       "Warnings:\n",
       "[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.\n",
       "\"\"\""
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 124,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "free_dance_model.summary()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 125,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Update PBs.\n",
    "for index, row in dance18.iterrows():\n",
    "    if row.Name not in individual_bests_short or row.short_score > individual_bests_short[row.Name]:\n",
    "        individual_bests_short[row.Name] = row.short_score\n",
    "    if not pd.isna(row['Free Start']):\n",
    "        if row.Name not in individual_bests_free or float(row.free_score) > individual_bests_free[row.Name]:\n",
    "            individual_bests_free[row.Name] = float(row.free_score)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 131,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start = pd.DataFrame(\n",
    "    [{'skater': key, 'start_order': value, 'reputation': individual_bests_free.get(key, med_free)}\n",
    "     for key, value in dance_free_start.iteritems()])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 132,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start['prediction'] = dance_predict_free_start.apply(\n",
    "    lambda row: free_dance_model.params.Intercept\n",
    "                + free_dance_model.params.normalized_free_start * row.start_order\n",
    "                + free_dance_model.params.reputation_free * row.reputation,\n",
    "    axis=1\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 133,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start = dance_predict_free_start.sort_values(by='prediction', ascending=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 134,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start['prediction_rank'] = [i+1 for i in xrange(len(dance_predict_free_start))]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 135,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start['real_start_order'] = dance_predict_free_start.apply(\n",
    "    lambda row: int(round(row.start_order * num_skaters)), axis=1\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 136,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
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       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>reputation</th>\n",
       "      <th>skater</th>\n",
       "      <th>start_order</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_rank</th>\n",
       "      <th>real_start_order</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>123.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.90</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.055479</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>113.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>115.566852</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>112.54</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.95</td>\n",
       "      <td>114.275848</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>113.31</td>\n",
       "      <td>Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.148127</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>112.07</td>\n",
       "      <td>Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>111.595472</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>110.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.013463</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>109.48</td>\n",
       "      <td>Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>107.625101</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>103.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>105.339202</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>106.17</td>\n",
       "      <td>Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>104.812875</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>105.21</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>101.036211</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>98.59</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.402404</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>99.68</td>\n",
       "      <td>Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>98.469399</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>99.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>96.178456</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>95.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>94.055840</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>90.47</td>\n",
       "      <td>Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>93.663349</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>97.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>92.384546</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>95.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>89.753858</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>90.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.892831</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>92.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.696097</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>81.94</td>\n",
       "      <td>Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>84.482299</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "    reputation                                   skater  start_order  \\\n",
       "15      123.35  Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON         0.90   \n",
       "18      113.35        Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE         1.00   \n",
       "1       112.54             Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE         0.95   \n",
       "16      113.31               Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES         0.85   \n",
       "12      112.07           Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE         0.80   \n",
       "6       110.45              Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER         0.70   \n",
       "3       109.48         Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN         0.65   \n",
       "2       103.10    Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO         0.75   \n",
       "19      106.17         Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI         0.60   \n",
       "4       105.21         Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER         0.40   \n",
       "11       98.59               Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED         0.55   \n",
       "7        99.68      Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV         0.45   \n",
       "0        99.85          Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS         0.30   \n",
       "5        95.05     Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC         0.35   \n",
       "17       90.47                Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ         0.50   \n",
       "13       97.55       Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN         0.15   \n",
       "9        95.85                  Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU         0.05   \n",
       "14       90.50          Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS         0.20   \n",
       "8        92.80             Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR         0.10   \n",
       "10       81.94     Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS         0.25   \n",
       "\n",
       "    prediction  prediction_rank  real_start_order  \n",
       "15  120.055479                1                18  \n",
       "18  115.566852                2                20  \n",
       "1   114.275848                3                19  \n",
       "16  113.148127                4                17  \n",
       "12  111.595472                5                16  \n",
       "6   109.013463                6                14  \n",
       "3   107.625101                7                13  \n",
       "2   105.339202                8                15  \n",
       "19  104.812875                9                12  \n",
       "4   101.036211               10                 8  \n",
       "11   99.402404               11                11  \n",
       "7    98.469399               12                 9  \n",
       "0    96.178456               13                 6  \n",
       "5    94.055840               14                 7  \n",
       "17   93.663349               15                10  \n",
       "13   92.384546               16                 3  \n",
       "9    89.753858               17                 1  \n",
       "14   88.892831               18                 4  \n",
       "8    88.696097               19                 2  \n",
       "10   84.482299               20                 5  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 136,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 137,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_short_results = pd.read_csv('pd_data/worlds/dance_short_results.csv')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 138,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start['short_result'] = dance_predict_free_start.apply(\n",
    "    lambda row: dance_short_results[dance_short_results.skater == row.skater].points.values[0], axis=1\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 139,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start['prediction_total'] = dance_predict_free_start.apply(\n",
    "    lambda row: row.short_result + row.prediction, axis=1\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 140,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start = dance_predict_free_start.sort_values(by='prediction_total', ascending=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 141,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_short_results.rename({'segment_rank': 'prediction_rank'}, inplace=True, axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 142,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dnq = dance_short_results[dance_short_results.prediction_rank >= num_skaters + 1]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 143,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:1: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy\n",
      "  if __name__ == '__main__':\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "dnq['short_result'] = dnq.apply(lambda row: row.points, axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 144,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dnq.rename({'points': 'prediction_total'}, axis=1, inplace=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 145,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start = pd.concat([dance_predict_free_start, dnq])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 146,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start['prediction_final_rank'] = [i+1 for i in xrange(len(dance_predict_free_start))]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 147,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_rank</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_total</th>\n",
       "      <th>real_start_order</th>\n",
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       "      <th>prediction_final_rank</th>\n",
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       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>120.055479</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>203.785479</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>123.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>83.73</td>\n",
       "      <td>Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.90</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>115.566852</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>195.986852</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>80.42</td>\n",
       "      <td>Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>114.275848</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>192.585848</td>\n",
       "      <td>19.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>112.54</td>\n",
       "      <td>78.31</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.95</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>111.595472</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>189.055472</td>\n",
       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>112.07</td>\n",
       "      <td>77.46</td>\n",
       "      <td>Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>113.148127</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>188.808127</td>\n",
       "      <td>17.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.31</td>\n",
       "      <td>75.66</td>\n",
       "      <td>Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>109.013463</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>183.523463</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>110.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>74.51</td>\n",
       "      <td>Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>107.625101</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>182.125101</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.48</td>\n",
       "      <td>74.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>105.339202</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "      <td>177.789202</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>103.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>104.812875</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>175.962875</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>106.17</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>99.402404</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>165.052404</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>98.59</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>101.036211</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>164.516211</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>105.21</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.48</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>98.469399</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "      <td>162.169399</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.68</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>96.178456</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.198456</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.02</td>\n",
       "      <td>Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>94.055840</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>157.555840</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>95.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>93.663349</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>157.393349</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.47</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.73</td>\n",
       "      <td>Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>92.384546</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>155.734546</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>97.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>88.892831</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>150.972831</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.08</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>89.753858</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>150.933858</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>95.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.18</td>\n",
       "      <td>Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>88.696097</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "      <td>149.076097</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>92.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>60.38</td>\n",
       "      <td>Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>84.482299</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>145.812299</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>81.94</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>20</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.820000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.82</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.640000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.64</td>\n",
       "      <td>Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX SENECAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.960000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.96</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>23</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.560000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>24</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.540000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.54</td>\n",
       "      <td>Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.270000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.27</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>26</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.110000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>27</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.400000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>47.570000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>47.57</td>\n",
       "      <td>Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>29</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.050000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>30</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>31</td>\n",
       "      <td>43.500000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>43.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>31</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "    prediction  prediction_rank  prediction_total  real_start_order  \\\n",
       "15  120.055479                1        203.785479              18.0   \n",
       "18  115.566852                2        195.986852              20.0   \n",
       "1   114.275848                3        192.585848              19.0   \n",
       "12  111.595472                5        189.055472              16.0   \n",
       "16  113.148127                4        188.808127              17.0   \n",
       "6   109.013463                6        183.523463              14.0   \n",
       "3   107.625101                7        182.125101              13.0   \n",
       "2   105.339202                8        177.789202              15.0   \n",
       "19  104.812875                9        175.962875              12.0   \n",
       "11   99.402404               11        165.052404              11.0   \n",
       "4   101.036211               10        164.516211               8.0   \n",
       "7    98.469399               12        162.169399               9.0   \n",
       "0    96.178456               13        160.198456               6.0   \n",
       "5    94.055840               14        157.555840               7.0   \n",
       "17   93.663349               15        157.393349              10.0   \n",
       "13   92.384546               16        155.734546               3.0   \n",
       "14   88.892831               18        150.972831               4.0   \n",
       "9    89.753858               17        150.933858               1.0   \n",
       "8    88.696097               19        149.076097               2.0   \n",
       "10   84.482299               20        145.812299               5.0   \n",
       "20         NaN               21         58.820000               NaN   \n",
       "21         NaN               22         58.640000               NaN   \n",
       "22         NaN               23         57.960000               NaN   \n",
       "23         NaN               24         57.560000               NaN   \n",
       "24         NaN               25         55.540000               NaN   \n",
       "25         NaN               26         55.270000               NaN   \n",
       "26         NaN               27         54.110000               NaN   \n",
       "27         NaN               28         50.400000               NaN   \n",
       "28         NaN               29         47.570000               NaN   \n",
       "29         NaN               30         46.050000               NaN   \n",
       "30         NaN               31         43.500000               NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "    reputation  short_result                                   skater  \\\n",
       "15      123.35         83.73  Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON   \n",
       "18      113.35         80.42        Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE   \n",
       "1       112.54         78.31             Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE   \n",
       "12      112.07         77.46           Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE   \n",
       "16      113.31         75.66               Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES   \n",
       "6       110.45         74.51              Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER   \n",
       "3       109.48         74.50         Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN   \n",
       "2       103.10         72.45    Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO   \n",
       "19      106.17         71.15         Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI   \n",
       "11       98.59         65.65               Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED   \n",
       "4       105.21         63.48         Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER   \n",
       "7        99.68         63.70      Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV   \n",
       "0        99.85         64.02          Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS   \n",
       "5        95.05         63.50     Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC   \n",
       "17       90.47         63.73                Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ   \n",
       "13       97.55         63.35       Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN   \n",
       "14       90.50         62.08          Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS   \n",
       "9        95.85         61.18                  Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU   \n",
       "8        92.80         60.38             Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR   \n",
       "10       81.94         61.33     Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS   \n",
       "20         NaN         58.82             Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN   \n",
       "21         NaN         58.64   Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX SENECAL   \n",
       "22         NaN         57.96       Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN   \n",
       "23         NaN         57.56                Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON   \n",
       "24         NaN         55.54       Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY   \n",
       "25         NaN         55.27        Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA   \n",
       "26         NaN         54.11            Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS   \n",
       "27         NaN         50.40     Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV   \n",
       "28         NaN         47.57             Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE   \n",
       "29         NaN         46.05           Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS   \n",
       "30         NaN         43.50         Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG   \n",
       "\n",
       "    start_order  prediction_final_rank  \n",
       "15         0.90                      1  \n",
       "18         1.00                      2  \n",
       "1          0.95                      3  \n",
       "12         0.80                      4  \n",
       "16         0.85                      5  \n",
       "6          0.70                      6  \n",
       "3          0.65                      7  \n",
       "2          0.75                      8  \n",
       "19         0.60                      9  \n",
       "11         0.55                     10  \n",
       "4          0.40                     11  \n",
       "7          0.45                     12  \n",
       "0          0.30                     13  \n",
       "5          0.35                     14  \n",
       "17         0.50                     15  \n",
       "13         0.15                     16  \n",
       "14         0.20                     17  \n",
       "9          0.05                     18  \n",
       "8          0.10                     19  \n",
       "10         0.25                     20  \n",
       "20          NaN                     21  \n",
       "21          NaN                     22  \n",
       "22          NaN                     23  \n",
       "23          NaN                     24  \n",
       "24          NaN                     25  \n",
       "25          NaN                     26  \n",
       "26          NaN                     27  \n",
       "27          NaN                     28  \n",
       "28          NaN                     29  \n",
       "29          NaN                     30  \n",
       "30          NaN                     31  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 147,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 148,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_predict_free_start.to_csv('fits/worlds_predictions/ols_dance_free.csv')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pairs_short_start = {'Elizaveta KASHITSYNA / Mark MAGYAR': 1, 'Paige CONNERS / Evgeni KRASNOPOLSKI': 2, 'Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY': 3, 'Annika HOCKE / Ruben BLOMMAERT': 4, 'Anna DUSKOVA / Martin BIDAR': 5, 'Ioulia CHTCHETININA / Mikhail AKULOV': 6, 'Tae Ok RYOM / Ju Sik KIM': 7, 'Zoe JONES / Christopher BOYADJI': 8, 'Lola ESBRAT / Andrei NOVOSELOV': 9, 'Camille RUEST / Andrew WOLFE': 10, 'Miu SUZAKI / Ryuichi KIHARA': 11, 'Lana PETRANOVIC / Antonio SOUZA-KORDEIRU': 12, 'Laura BARQUERO / Aritz MAESTU': 13, 'Kyueun KIM / Alex Kang Chan KAM': 14, 'Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV': 15, 'Cheng PENG / Yang JIN': 16, 'Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR': 17, 'Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM': 18, 'Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO': 19, 'Miriam ZIEGLER / Severin KIEFER': 20, 'Valentina MARCHEI / Ondrej HOTAREK': 21, 'Julianne SEGUIN / Charlie BILODEAU': 22, 'Xiaoyu YU / Hao ZHANG': 23, 'Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE': 24, 'Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV': 25, 'Aljona SAVCHENKO / Bruno MASSOT': 26, 'Natalia ZABIIAKO / Alexander ENBERT': 27, 'Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES': 28,}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "ladies_short_start = {'Dasa GRM': 1, 'Hanul KIM': 2, 'Xiangning LI': 3, 'Natasha MCKAY': 4, 'Elisabetta LECCARDI': 5, 'Viveca LINDFORS': 6, 'Angelina KUCHVALSKA': 7, 'Alisa STOMAKHINA': 8, 'Larkyn AUSTMAN': 9, 'Isadora WILLIAMS': 10, 'Gerli LIINAMAE': 11, 'Anne Line GJERSEM': 12, 'Antonina DUBININA': 13, 'Amy LIN': 14, 'Elzbieta KROPA': 15, 'Kailani CRAINE': 16, 'Eliska BREZINOVA': 17, 'Alexia PAGANINI': 18, 'Anita OSTLUND': 19, 'Bradie TENNELL': 20, 'Laurine LECAVELIER': 21, 'Nicole SCHOTT': 22, 'Loena HENDRICKX': 23, 'Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA': 24, 'Ivett TOTH': 25, 'Gabrielle DALEMAN': 26, 'Nicole RAJICOVA': 27, 'Dabin CHOI': 28, 'Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA': 29, 'Mirai NAGASU': 30, 'Mariah BELL': 31, 'Wakaba HIGUCHI': 32, 'Carolina KOSTNER': 33, 'Alina ZAGITOVA': 34, 'Maria SOTSKOVA': 35, 'Kaetlyn OSMOND': 36, 'Satoko MIYAHARA': 37,}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pairs_free_start = {'Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR': 1, 'Miriam ZIEGLER / Severin KIEFER': 2, 'Annika HOCKE / Ruben BLOMMAERT': 3, 'Anna DUSKOVA / Martin BIDAR': 4, 'Tae Ok RYOM / Ju Sik KIM': 5, 'Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM': 6, 'Xiaoyu YU / Hao ZHANG': 7, 'Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO': 8, 'Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV': 9, 'Valentina MARCHEI / Ondrej HOTAREK': 10, 'Cheng PENG / Yang JIN': 11, 'Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE': 12, 'Natalia ZABIIAKO / Alexander ENBERT': 13, 'Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES': 14, 'Aljona SAVCHENKO / Bruno MASSOT': 15, 'Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV': 16}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "ladies_free_start = {'Alexia PAGANINI': 1, 'Elisabetta LECCARDI': 2, 'Kailani CRAINE': 3, 'Ivett TOTH': 4, 'Dabin CHOI': 5, 'Dasa GRM': 6, 'Mariah BELL': 7, 'Laurine LECAVELIER': 8, 'Eliska BREZINOVA': 9, 'Hanul KIM': 10, 'Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA': 11, 'Viveca LINDFORS': 12, 'Loena HENDRICKX': 13, 'Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA': 14, 'Nicole SCHOTT': 15, 'Bradie TENNELL': 16, 'Mirai NAGASU': 17, 'Wakaba HIGUCHI': 18, 'Kaetlyn OSMOND': 19, 'Maria SOTSKOVA': 20, 'Gabrielle DALEMAN': 21, 'Satoko MIYAHARA': 22, 'Alina ZAGITOVA': 23, 'Carolina KOSTNER': 24,}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "men_short_start = {'Slavik HAYRAPETYAN': 1, 'Brendan KERRY': 2, 'Javier RAYA': 3, 'Burak DEMIRBOGA': 4, 'Chih-I TSAO': 5, 'Phillip HARRIS': 6, 'Romain PONSART': 7, 'Valtter VIRTANEN': 8, 'Julian Zhi Jie YEE': 9, 'Jinseo KIM': 10, 'Igor REZNICHENKO': 11, 'Kazuki TOMONO': 12, 'Abzal RAKIMGALIEV': 13, 'Nicholas VRDOLJAK': 14, 'Donovan CARRILLO': 15, 'Larry LOUPOLOVER': 16, 'Paul FENTZ': 17, 'Stephane WALKER': 18, 'Ivan PAVLOV': 19, 'Keegan MESSING': 20, 'Michal BREZINA': 21, 'Morisi KVITELASHVILI': 22, 'Matteo RIZZO': 23, 'Alexander MAJOROV': 24, 'Nam NGUYEN': 25, 'Daniel SAMOHIN': 26, 'Vincent ZHOU': 27, 'Max AARON': 28, 'Deniss VASILJEVS': 29, 'Keiji TANAKA': 30, 'Misha GE': 31, 'Mikhail KOLYADA': 32, 'Alexei BYCHENKO': 33, 'Nathan CHEN': 34, 'Dmitri ALIEV': 35, 'Boyang JIN': 36, 'Shoma UNO': 37,}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_short_start = {'Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE': 1, 'Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS': 2, 'Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA': 3, 'Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS': 4, 'Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV': 5, 'Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN': 6, 'Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS': 7, 'Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS': 8, 'Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS': 9, 'Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY': 10, 'Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG': 11, 'Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN': 12, 'Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX SENECAL': 13, 'Olivia SMART / Adrian DIAZ': 14, 'Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON': 15, 'Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN': 16, 'Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV': 17, 'Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC': 18, 'Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU': 19, 'Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR': 20, 'Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO': 21, 'Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER': 22, 'Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN': 23, 'Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER': 24, 'Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI': 25, 'Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED': 26, 'Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES': 27, 'Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE': 28, 'Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE': 29, 'Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE': 30, 'Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON': 31}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 76,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "men_free_start = {'Julian Zhi Jie YEE': 1, 'Daniel SAMOHIN': 2, 'Slavik HAYRAPETYAN': 3, 'Brendan KERRY': 4, 'Phillip HARRIS': 5, 'Donovan CARRILLO': 6, 'Max AARON': 7, 'Romain PONSART': 8, 'Dmitri ALIEV': 9, 'Michal BREZINA': 10, 'Keiji TANAKA': 11, 'Matteo RIZZO': 12, 'Alexander MAJOROV': 13, 'Kazuki TOMONO': 14, 'Paul FENTZ': 15, 'Deniss VASILJEVS': 16, 'Misha GE': 17, 'Alexei BYCHENKO': 18, 'Keegan MESSING': 19, 'Shoma UNO': 20, 'Boyang JIN': 21, 'Mikhail KOLYADA': 22, 'Vincent ZHOU': 23, 'Nathan CHEN': 24, }"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 111,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dance_free_start = {'Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU': 1, 'Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR': 2, 'Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN': 3, 'Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS': 4, 'Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS': 5, 'Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS': 6, 'Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC': 7, 'Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER': 8, 'Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV': 9, 'Olivia SMART / Adrian DIAZ': 10, 'Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED': 11, 'Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI': 12, 'Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN': 13, 'Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER': 14, 'Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO': 15, 'Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE': 16, 'Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES': 17, 'Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON': 18, 'Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE': 19, 'Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE': 20, }"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 227,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "ladies_short_results = pd.read_csv('fits/worlds_pairs_short_results.csv')\n",
    "ladies_short_predictions = pd.read_csv('fits/worlds_predictions_ols_pairs_short.csv')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 217,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Index([u'Unnamed: 0', u'reputation', u'skater', u'start_order', u'prediction',\n",
       "       u'prediction_rank', u'real_start_order'],\n",
       "      dtype='object')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 217,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "ladies_short_predictions.columns"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 228,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "wrong = []\n",
    "score_loss = 0.\n",
    "rank_loss_top10 = 0\n",
    "rank_loss = 0\n",
    "for skater in ladies_short_predictions.skater.unique():\n",
    "    result = ladies_short_results[ladies_short_results.skater == skater]\n",
    "    prediction = ladies_short_predictions[ladies_short_predictions.skater == skater]\n",
    "    result_rank = result.segment_rank.values[0]\n",
    "    predicted_rank = prediction.prediction_rank.values[0]\n",
    "    result_score = result.points.values[0]\n",
    "    predicted_score = prediction.prediction.values[0]\n",
    "    rank_loss += abs(result_rank - predicted_rank)\n",
    "    score_loss += (result_score - predicted_score)**2\n",
    "    if result_rank != predicted_rank:\n",
    "        wrong.append((skater, predicted_rank, result_rank))\n",
    "    if result_rank <= 10:\n",
    "        rank_loss_top10 += abs(result_rank - predicted_rank)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 229,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "(897.02168065138324, 66, 16)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 229,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "score_loss, rank_loss, rank_loss_top10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 223,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[('Alina ZAGITOVA', 1, 2),\n",
       " ('Kaetlyn OSMOND', 2, 4),\n",
       " ('Carolina KOSTNER', 4, 1),\n",
       " ('Wakaba HIGUCHI', 6, 8),\n",
       " ('Mirai NAGASU', 7, 9),\n",
       " ('Gabrielle DALEMAN', 8, 6),\n",
       " ('Dabin CHOI', 9, 21),\n",
       " ('Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA', 10, 11),\n",
       " ('Mariah BELL', 11, 17),\n",
       " ('Laurine LECAVELIER', 12, 15),\n",
       " ('Bradie TENNELL', 13, 7),\n",
       " ('Nicole RAJICOVA', 14, 27),\n",
       " ('Ivett TOTH', 15, 24),\n",
       " ('Nicole SCHOTT', 16, 12),\n",
       " ('Loena HENDRICKX', 17, 10),\n",
       " ('Anita OSTLUND', 18, 29),\n",
       " ('Kailani CRAINE', 19, 20),\n",
       " ('Alexia PAGANINI', 20, 19),\n",
       " ('Amy LIN', 21, 28),\n",
       " ('Angelina KUCHVALSKA', 22, 37),\n",
       " ('Eliska BREZINOVA', 23, 18),\n",
       " ('Hanul KIM', 24, 14),\n",
       " ('Isadora WILLIAMS', 25, 35),\n",
       " ('Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA', 26, 16),\n",
       " ('Xiangning LI', 27, 26),\n",
       " ('Viveca LINDFORS', 28, 13),\n",
       " ('Anne Line GJERSEM', 29, 33),\n",
       " ('Larkyn AUSTMAN', 30, 25),\n",
       " ('Gerli LIINAMAE', 33, 34),\n",
       " ('Alisa STOMAKHINA', 34, 30),\n",
       " ('Antonina DUBININA', 35, 36),\n",
       " ('Elisabetta LECCARDI', 36, 23),\n",
       " ('Dasa GRM', 37, 22)]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 223,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "wrong"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "DISCPLINES = ('men', 'ladies', 'pairs', 'dance')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 83,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "results = {}\n",
    "hm3 = {}\n",
    "lr_short = {}\n",
    "lr_free = {}\n",
    "for discipline in DISCPLINES:\n",
    "    results[discipline] = pd.read_csv('pd_data/worlds/' + discipline + '_results.csv', index_col='skater')\n",
    "    lr_short[discipline] = pd.read_csv('fits/worlds_predictions/ols_' + discipline + '_short.csv', index_col='skater')\n",
    "    lr_free[discipline] = pd.read_csv('fits/worlds_predictions/ols_' + discipline + '_free.csv', index_col='skater')\n",
    "    lr_free[discipline].prediction = lr_free[discipline].apply(\n",
    "        lambda row: 0. if pd.isnull(row.prediction) else row.prediction, axis=1\n",
    "    )\n",
    "    lr_short[discipline].prediction += lr_free[discipline].prediction\n",
    "    lr_short[discipline] = lr_short[discipline].sort_values(by='prediction', ascending=False)\n",
    "    lr_short[discipline]['predicted_final_rank'] = [i+1 for i in xrange(len(lr_short[discipline]))]\n",
    "    hm3[discipline] = pd.read_csv('fits/worlds_predictions/breakdown_prediction_' + discipline +'.csv', index_col='skater')\n",
    "    hm3[discipline].rename({'rank':'placement'}, inplace=True, axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 84,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "men\n",
      " ols\n",
      "   8419.8958662 15.085249522 104.0 2.81081081081\n",
      " hm2\n",
      "   188489.28528 71.3744002256 194.0 5.24324324324\n",
      "ladies\n",
      " ols\n",
      "   16857.3357395 21.3448745284 108.0 2.91891891892\n",
      " hm2\n",
      "   92783.7262822 50.0766240665 168.0 4.54054054054\n",
      "pairs\n",
      " ols\n",
      "   2006.60582518 8.46548839444 62.0 2.21428571429\n",
      " hm2\n",
      "   67821.5483081 49.2158323496 80.0 2.85714285714\n",
      "dance\n",
      " ols\n",
      "   739.478693021 4.88407118988 38.0 1.22580645161\n",
      " hm2\n",
      "   34691.9527795 33.4528810561 48.0 1.54838709677\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for discipline in DISCPLINES:\n",
    "    print discipline\n",
    "    ols_score_loss = 0.\n",
    "    ols_rank_loss = 0.\n",
    "    hm3_score_loss = 0.\n",
    "    hm3_rank_loss = 0.\n",
    "    num_entries = len(results[discipline])\n",
    "    for skater in results[discipline].index:\n",
    "        actual_points = results[discipline].loc[skater].points\n",
    "        actual_rank   = results[discipline].loc[skater].placement\n",
    "        ols_points    = lr_short[discipline].loc[skater].prediction\n",
    "        ols_rank      = lr_short[discipline].loc[skater].predicted_final_rank\n",
    "        hm3_points    = hm3[discipline].loc[skater].prediction\n",
    "        hm3_rank      = hm3[discipline].loc[skater].placement\n",
    "        ols_score_loss += (actual_points - ols_points)**2\n",
    "        ols_rank_loss  += abs(actual_rank - ols_rank)\n",
    "        hm3_score_loss += (actual_points - hm3_points)**2\n",
    "        hm3_rank_loss  += abs(actual_rank - hm3_rank)\n",
    "    print ' ols'\n",
    "    print '  ', ols_score_loss, np.sqrt(ols_score_loss / num_entries), ols_rank_loss, ols_rank_loss / num_entries\n",
    "    print ' hm2'\n",
    "    print '  ', hm3_score_loss, np.sqrt(hm3_score_loss / num_entries), hm3_rank_loss, hm3_rank_loss / num_entries\n",
    "#         print skater, actual_points, actual_rank, 'ols', actual_points - ols_points, actual_rank - ols_rank, 'hm3', actual_points - hm3_points, actual_rank - hm3_rank"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 97,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
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       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Unnamed: 0</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_rank</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_total</th>\n",
       "      <th>real_start_order</th>\n",
       "      <th>reputation</th>\n",
       "      <th>short_result</th>\n",
       "      <th>start_order</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_final_rank</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>skater</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON</th>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.055479</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>203.785479</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>123.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>83.73</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.90</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE</th>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>115.566852</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>195.986852</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>80.42</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>114.275848</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>192.585848</td>\n",
       "      <td>19.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>112.54</td>\n",
       "      <td>78.31</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.95</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE</th>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "      <td>111.595472</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>189.055472</td>\n",
       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>112.07</td>\n",
       "      <td>77.46</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES</th>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.148127</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>188.808127</td>\n",
       "      <td>17.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.31</td>\n",
       "      <td>75.66</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER</th>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.013463</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>183.523463</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>110.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>74.51</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>107.625101</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>182.125101</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.48</td>\n",
       "      <td>74.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>105.339202</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "      <td>177.789202</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>103.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI</th>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "      <td>104.812875</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>175.962875</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>106.17</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED</th>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.402404</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>165.052404</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>98.59</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>101.036211</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>164.516211</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>105.21</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.48</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV</th>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>98.469399</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "      <td>162.169399</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.68</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>96.178456</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.198456</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.02</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC</th>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>94.055840</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>157.555840</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>95.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ</th>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>93.663349</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>157.393349</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.47</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.73</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN</th>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>92.384546</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>155.734546</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>97.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS</th>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.892831</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>150.972831</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.08</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU</th>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>89.753858</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>150.933858</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>95.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.18</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR</th>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.696097</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "      <td>149.076097</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>92.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>60.38</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS</th>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>84.482299</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>145.812299</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>81.94</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN</th>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.820000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.82</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL</th>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.640000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.64</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN</th>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.960000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.96</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON</th>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.560000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.56</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY</th>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.540000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.54</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA</th>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.270000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.27</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS</th>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.110000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV</th>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.400000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE</th>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>47.570000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>47.57</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS</th>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.050000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG</th>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>31</td>\n",
       "      <td>43.500000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>43.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>31</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                         Unnamed: 0  prediction  \\\n",
       "skater                                                            \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON          15  120.055479   \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE                18  115.566852   \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE                      1  114.275848   \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE                   12  111.595472   \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES                       16  113.148127   \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER                       6  109.013463   \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN                  3  107.625101   \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO             2  105.339202   \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI                 19  104.812875   \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED                       11   99.402404   \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER                  4  101.036211   \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV               7   98.469399   \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS                   0   96.178456   \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC              5   94.055840   \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                        17   93.663349   \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN               13   92.384546   \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS                  14   88.892831   \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                           9   89.753858   \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR                      8   88.696097   \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS             10   84.482299   \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN                     20    0.000000   \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL           21    0.000000   \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN               22    0.000000   \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                        23    0.000000   \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY               24    0.000000   \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA                25    0.000000   \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS                    26    0.000000   \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV             27    0.000000   \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE                     28    0.000000   \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS                   29    0.000000   \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG                 30    0.000000   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         prediction_rank  prediction_total  \\\n",
       "skater                                                                       \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON                1        203.785479   \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE                      2        195.986852   \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE                           3        192.585848   \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE                         5        189.055472   \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES                             4        188.808127   \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER                            6        183.523463   \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN                       7        182.125101   \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO                  8        177.789202   \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI                       9        175.962875   \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED                            11        165.052404   \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER                      10        164.516211   \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV                   12        162.169399   \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS                       13        160.198456   \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC                  14        157.555840   \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                             15        157.393349   \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN                    16        155.734546   \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS                       18        150.972831   \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                               17        150.933858   \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR                          19        149.076097   \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS                  20        145.812299   \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN                          21         58.820000   \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL                22         58.640000   \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN                    23         57.960000   \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                             24         57.560000   \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY                    25         55.540000   \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA                     26         55.270000   \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS                         27         54.110000   \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV                  28         50.400000   \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE                          29         47.570000   \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS                        30         46.050000   \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG                      31         43.500000   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         real_start_order  reputation  \\\n",
       "skater                                                                  \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON              18.0      123.35   \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE                    20.0      113.35   \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE                         19.0      112.54   \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE                       16.0      112.07   \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES                           17.0      113.31   \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER                          14.0      110.45   \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN                     13.0      109.48   \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO                15.0      103.10   \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI                     12.0      106.17   \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED                           11.0       98.59   \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER                      8.0      105.21   \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV                   9.0       99.68   \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS                       6.0       99.85   \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC                  7.0       95.05   \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                            10.0       90.47   \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN                    3.0       97.55   \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS                       4.0       90.50   \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                               1.0       95.85   \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR                          2.0       92.80   \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS                  5.0       81.94   \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN                          NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL                NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN                    NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                             NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY                    NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA                     NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS                         NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV                  NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE                          NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS                        NaN         NaN   \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG                      NaN         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         short_result  start_order  \\\n",
       "skater                                                               \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON         83.73         0.90   \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE               80.42         1.00   \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE                    78.31         0.95   \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE                  77.46         0.80   \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES                      75.66         0.85   \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER                     74.51         0.70   \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN                74.50         0.65   \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO           72.45         0.75   \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI                71.15         0.60   \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED                      65.65         0.55   \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER                63.48         0.40   \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV             63.70         0.45   \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS                 64.02         0.30   \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC            63.50         0.35   \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                       63.73         0.50   \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN              63.35         0.15   \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS                 62.08         0.20   \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                         61.18         0.05   \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR                    60.38         0.10   \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS            61.33         0.25   \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN                    58.82          NaN   \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL          58.64          NaN   \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN              57.96          NaN   \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                       57.56          NaN   \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY              55.54          NaN   \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA               55.27          NaN   \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS                   54.11          NaN   \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV            50.40          NaN   \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE                    47.57          NaN   \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS                  46.05          NaN   \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG                43.50          NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         prediction_final_rank  \n",
       "skater                                                          \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON                      1  \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE                            2  \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE                                 3  \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE                               4  \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES                                   5  \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER                                  6  \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN                             7  \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO                        8  \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI                             9  \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED                                  10  \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER                            11  \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV                         12  \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS                             13  \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC                        14  \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                                   15  \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN                          16  \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS                             17  \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                                     18  \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR                                19  \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS                        20  \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN                                21  \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL                      22  \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN                          23  \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                                   24  \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY                          25  \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA                           26  \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS                               27  \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV                        28  \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE                                29  \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS                              30  \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG                            31  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 97,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "lr_free['dance']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 63,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "37\n",
      "37\n",
      "28\n",
      "31\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for discipline in DISCPLINES:\n",
    "    print len(results[discipline])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 59,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Unnamed: 0</th>\n",
       "      <th>reputation</th>\n",
       "      <th>start_order</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction</th>\n",
       "      <th>real_start_order</th>\n",
       "      <th>predicted_final_rank</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>skater</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON</th>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "      <td>82.07</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>200.545020</td>\n",
       "      <td>31</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>77.47</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.967742</td>\n",
       "      <td>191.373620</td>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE</th>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>77.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.903226</td>\n",
       "      <td>192.418090</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE</th>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.57</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.935484</td>\n",
       "      <td>187.852837</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES</th>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.870968</td>\n",
       "      <td>188.745223</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN</th>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>75.38</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.741935</td>\n",
       "      <td>181.743061</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER</th>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.83</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.709677</td>\n",
       "      <td>181.153248</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI</th>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.58</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.806452</td>\n",
       "      <td>176.750129</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER</th>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>69.08</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.774194</td>\n",
       "      <td>171.029767</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO</th>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>67.62</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.677419</td>\n",
       "      <td>173.666588</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.27</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.838710</td>\n",
       "      <td>167.208358</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV</th>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>66.06</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.548387</td>\n",
       "      <td>164.841855</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN</th>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.86</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.516129</td>\n",
       "      <td>157.020171</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ</th>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.34</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.451613</td>\n",
       "      <td>158.190351</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR</th>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.33</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.645161</td>\n",
       "      <td>153.155921</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.79</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.580645</td>\n",
       "      <td>158.393249</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.36</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.612903</td>\n",
       "      <td>154.014563</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS</th>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.11</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.258065</td>\n",
       "      <td>159.917585</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN</th>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.22</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.387097</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.935973</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY</th>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.322581</td>\n",
       "      <td>60.482713</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.225806</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.395772</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS</th>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.99</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.064516</td>\n",
       "      <td>147.782596</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN</th>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.73</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.193548</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.210587</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON</th>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.82</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.483871</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.182223</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL</th>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.419355</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV</th>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.64</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.161290</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.860050</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS</th>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.290323</td>\n",
       "      <td>139.435617</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA</th>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.096774</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.634486</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE</th>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.032258</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.194876</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS</th>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.42</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.129032</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.282527</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG</th>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.49</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.354839</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.042533</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>31</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                         Unnamed: 0  reputation  start_order  \\\n",
       "skater                                                                         \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON          19       82.07     1.000000   \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE                      0       77.47     0.967742   \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE                28       77.75     0.903226   \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE                   24       76.57     0.935484   \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES                       25       76.25     0.870968   \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN                 21       75.38     0.741935   \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER                      22       72.83     0.709677   \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI                 29       71.58     0.806452   \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER                  7       69.08     0.774194   \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO            15       67.62     0.677419   \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED                        3       65.27     0.838710   \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV              23       66.06     0.548387   \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN               10       63.86     0.516129   \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                        14       64.34     0.451613   \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR                      6       62.33     0.645161   \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC              2       62.79     0.580645   \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                           4       62.36     0.612903   \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS                  20       65.11     0.258065   \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN                     30       61.22     0.387097   \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY                8       59.75     0.322581   \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS                     1       59.13     0.225806   \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS                  12       59.99     0.064516   \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN               17       57.73     0.193548   \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                        11       54.82     0.483871   \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL           18       53.00     0.419355   \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV             13       54.64     0.161290   \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS             26       52.05     0.290323   \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA                27       52.05     0.096774   \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE                      9       52.05     0.032258   \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS                    5       45.42     0.129032   \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG                 16       38.49     0.354839   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         prediction  real_start_order  \\\n",
       "skater                                                                  \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON  200.545020                31   \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE             191.373620                30   \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE        192.418090                28   \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE           187.852837                29   \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES               188.745223                27   \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN         181.743061                23   \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER              181.153248                22   \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI         176.750129                25   \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER         171.029767                24   \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO    173.666588                21   \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED               167.208358                26   \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV      164.841855                17   \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN       157.020171                16   \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                158.190351                14   \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR             153.155921                20   \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC     158.393249                18   \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                  154.014563                19   \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS          159.917585                 8   \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN              61.935973                12   \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY        60.482713                10   \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS             59.395772                 7   \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS          147.782596                 2   \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN        58.210587                 6   \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                 58.182223                15   \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL          NaN                13   \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV      55.860050                 5   \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS     139.435617                 9   \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA         53.634486                 3   \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE              53.194876                 1   \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS            49.282527                 4   \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG          46.042533                11   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         predicted_final_rank  \n",
       "skater                                                         \n",
       "Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON                     1  \n",
       "Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE                                2  \n",
       "Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE                           3  \n",
       "Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE                              4  \n",
       "Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES                                  5  \n",
       "Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN                            6  \n",
       "Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER                                 7  \n",
       "Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI                            8  \n",
       "Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER                            9  \n",
       "Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO                      10  \n",
       "Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED                                 11  \n",
       "Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV                        12  \n",
       "Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN                         13  \n",
       "Olivia SMART / Adria DIAZ                                  14  \n",
       "Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR                               15  \n",
       "Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC                       16  \n",
       "Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU                                    17  \n",
       "Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS                            18  \n",
       "Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN                               19  \n",
       "Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY                         20  \n",
       "Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS                              21  \n",
       "Kavita LORENZ / Joti POLIZOAKIS                            22  \n",
       "Cecilia TORN / Jussiville PARTANEN                         23  \n",
       "Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON                                  24  \n",
       "Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL                     25  \n",
       "Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV                       26  \n",
       "Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS                       27  \n",
       "Cortney MANSOUROVA / Michal CESKA                          28  \n",
       "Teodora MARKOVA / Simon DAZE                               29  \n",
       "Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS                             30  \n",
       "Adel TANKOVA / Ronald ZILBERBERG                           31  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 59,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "lr_short['dance']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
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    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
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