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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="yes"?>
<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
<channel>
<title>Analysis Paralysis</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/</link>
<description>Recent content on Analysis Paralysis</description>
<generator>Hugo -- gohugo.io</generator>
<language>en</language>
<managingEditor>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</managingEditor>
<webMaster>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</webMaster>
<lastBuildDate>Thu, 05 Sep 2024 12:00:00 +0300</lastBuildDate>
<atom:link href="https://recommend-games.github.io/index.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
<item>
<title>Debiasing the BoardGameGeek ranking</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 05 Sep 2024 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/</guid>
<description><p><em>Bias</em> is a bit of an ugly word, isn&rsquo;t it? It certainly has become one of those battle phrases in the culture war, where both sides of the argument accuse the other of forcing their biases onto society. Board game reviews frequently need to justify themselves for their biases affecting their views. <a href="https://spacebiff.com/2024/08/20/talking-about-games-18/">Dan Thurot</a> recently wrote a very eloquent piece on the matter, diving deeper into different kinds of biases.</p>
<p>But <em>bias</em> also has a well defined <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_(statistics)">meaning in statistics</a>. Moving from emotions to cold hard numbers, the word <em>bias</em> loses its antagonistic nature and simply becomes a measurement one might want to minimise or remove entirely. Hence, <em>debiasing</em> the BoardGameGeek (BGG) ranking is about asking the question what it would look like if we removed the influence of a particular parameter. One such parameter is a game&rsquo;s age: we&rsquo;ve seen in the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/">previous article</a> that ratings have gone up over time, so removing the age bias from the BGG ranking means correcting for this trend.</p>
<p>This is by no means a new idea: <a href="https://dvatvani.com/blog/bgg-analysis-part-2">Dinesh Vatvani</a> published an often referenced article back in 2018 focussing on removing the complexity bias from the ratings. This article is an update to and an extension of his work.</p>
<h1 id="removing-the-age-bias">Removing the age bias</h1>
<p>So, let&rsquo;s start with the bias readers of this blog will already be familar with: age bias, which really is just a slightly more neutral term for <em>cult of the new</em>. The first step is plotting the games&rsquo; ages vs their average ratings:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_reg_age.png"
	alt="Scatter plot: a game&#39;s age vs its rating"
	 />

<p>The points on the very left are the oldest games in our dataset, those published in 1970, whilst the ones on the right are those published in 2024. I&rsquo;ve plotted games with few ratings more faintly in order to declutter the image. The bold red line is the line of best fit, i.e., the trend line that best describes the yearly increase in average ratings. This picture should look pretty familiar if you&rsquo;ve read the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/">previous article</a>, though we didn&rsquo;t aggregate by year but plotted every single game as an individual dot.</p>
<p>That trend line has a slope of 0.03, which means that overall, a game&rsquo;s average rating decrease by 0.03 with every year that has passed since its release. Now, removing the age bias means reducing that slope to 0. It&rsquo;s as if we consider each year on its own and only care how much better or worse a game was compared to its peers released at the same time. I hope this little animation will make things much clearer:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_reg_age_animated.gif"
	alt="Animation: removing the age bias from games&#39; ratings"
	 />

<p>(Again, credit to Dinesh Vatvani for introducing this kind of visualisation in <a href="https://dvatvani.com/blog/bgg-analysis-part-2">his article</a>.)</p>
<p>Next, we can use those adjusted average ratings to calculate a new, debiased ranking. In order to do this, we recreate the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">BGG ranking</a> by taking the Bayesian average, i.e., adding 2311 dummy ratings (<a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/">one for every 10,000 ratings</a> in total) of 5.5.</p>
<p>Without further ado, those are the new top 10 rated games after removing the age bias:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:center">Rank</th>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Rating</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#1</strong> <small>(🔺 2)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a> <small>(2017)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.4 <small>(🔻 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#2</strong> <small>(🔺 11)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a> <small>(2005)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.4 <small>(🔺 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#3</strong> <small>(🔻 1)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a> <small>(2015)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.4 <small>(🔻 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#4</strong> <small>(🔺 4)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/115746" style="font-variant: small-caps;">War of the Ring: Second Edition</a> <small>(2011)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.5 <small>(🔸 0.0)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#5</strong> <small>(🔻 4)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a> <small>(2018)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.4 <small>(🔻 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#6</strong> <small>(🔺 145)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/2511" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective</a> <small>(1982)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.5 <small>(🔺 0.8)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#7</strong> <small>(🔸 0)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167791" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terraforming Mars</a> <small>(2016)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔻 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#8</strong> <small>(🔻 4)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a> <small>(2021)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔻 0.3)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#9</strong> <small>(🔺 36)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/3076" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Puerto Rico</a> <small>(2002)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔺 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#10</strong> <small>(🔻 1)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/187645" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Star Wars: Rebellion</a> <small>(2016)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔻 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>As designed, older games are the big winners of this adjustment, with former BGG #1s <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/3076" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Puerto Rico</a> making a comeback. Classic murder mystery game <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/2511" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective</a> makes a huge leap into the top 10 as one of the few games from the 80s that stood the test of time. Download the full new ranking <a href="ranking_debiased_age.csv">here</a>.</p>
<h1 id="removing-the-complexity-bias">Removing the complexity bias</h1>
<p>Obviously, we can apply the exact same idea to other features, e.g., a game&rsquo;s complexity (or weight) as Dinesh Vatvani did in his <a href="https://dvatvani.com/blog/bgg-analysis-part-2">original article</a>. Again, we start by looking at the spread of the data points:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_reg_complexity.png"
	alt="Scatter plot: a game&#39;s complexity vs its rating"
	 />

<!-- TODO: Do we need to explain the complexity score from BGG? -->
<p>The trend line has a slope of 0.63, i.e., the heaviest games on BGG have on average a full 2.5 point higher average score than the lighest ones. Somehow it feels particularly pleasing to see the light but clever games being lifted when we remove this complexity bias:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_reg_complexity_animated.gif"
	alt="Animation: removing the complexity bias from games&#39; ratings"
	 />

<p>This is the new top 10 after adjusting for the complexity bias:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:center">Rank</th>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Rating</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#1</strong> <small>(🔺 141)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/254640" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Just One</a> <small>(2018)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔺 0.6)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#2</strong> <small>(🔺 127)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/178900" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Codenames</a> <small>(2015)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.0 <small>(🔺 0.4)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#3</strong> <small>(🔺 45)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> <small>(2021)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.0 <small>(🔺 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#4</strong> <small>(🔺 101)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a> <small>(2019)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔺 0.4)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#5</strong> <small>(🔻 3)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a> <small>(2015)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.0 <small>(🔻 0.6)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#6</strong> <small>(🔺 13)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/173346" style="font-variant: small-caps;">7 Wonders Duel</a> <small>(2015)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">7.9 <small>(🔻 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#7</strong> <small>(🔺 30)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/324856" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: Mission Deep Sea</a> <small>(2021)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.1 <small>(🔻 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#8</strong> <small>(🔺 71)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/230802" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Azul</a> <small>(2017)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">7.8 <small>(🔺 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#9</strong> <small>(🔺 117)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/163412" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Patchwork</a> <small>(2014)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">7.8 <small>(🔺 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#10</strong> <small>(🔺 57)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244521" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Quacks of Quedlinburg</a> <small>(2018)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">7.8 <small>(🔸 0.0)</small></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>I&rsquo;m not going to lie: As a lover of small and interactive games, this top 10 looks much more apealing to me than the actual BGG top 10. Download the full new ranking <a href="ranking_debiased_complexity.csv">here</a>.</p>
<h1 id="removing-the-playing-time-bias">Removing the playing time bias</h1>
<p>Next, we&rsquo;ll take a look at how a game&rsquo;s playing time (as measured by the minimum playing time printed on the box) affects its rating:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_reg_min_time.png"
	alt="Scatter plot: a game&#39;s minimum playing time vs its rating"
	 />

<p>We see a similar trend line as with the complexity bias, which shouldn&rsquo;t come as a surprise since a game&rsquo;s length and complexity are highly correlated. The slope here is 0.0045, i.e., every minute it takes longer to play a game makes it 0.0045 points &ldquo;better&rdquo;, which does sound a bit weird when one puts it like that.</p>
<p>Because publishers love to lie about playing time and claim most games can be played in about an hour, the adjusted ranking doesn&rsquo;t look all that different from the usual one, so I&rsquo;ll skip it for this article, but you can download it <a href="ranking_debiased_min_time.csv">here</a> if you&rsquo;d like to take a look anyways.</p>
<h1 id="removing-the-game-type-bias">Removing the game type bias</h1>
<p>So far, we&rsquo;ve been looking at continuous values (also known as numerical features), but we can apply the same principal to categories. One particularly interesting feature in this context is a game&rsquo;s type: BGG maintains separate rankings for eight different game types, and users can vote which of those types a game belongs to (depending on the share of votes, a game might be classified as more than one type). Given everything we&rsquo;ve seen so far, you can probably already guess that the lighter categories like children&rsquo;s and party games aren&rsquo;t as highly praised as war and strategy games. Here&rsquo;s all eight types sorted from lowest to highest average rating:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_cat_game_type.png"
	alt="Violin plot: game types vs their ratings"
	 />

<p>Each of those little violins represent the distribution of ratings amongst that type, with the white line indicating the median. Removing the game type bias now means bringing those distributions in line:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_cat_game_type_animated.gif"
	alt="Animation: removing the game type bias from games&#39; ratings"
	 />

<p>Just like before, we can calculate a new, debiased ranking:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:center">Rank</th>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Rating</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#1</strong> <small>(🔸 0)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a> <small>(2018)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔻 0.4)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#2</strong> <small>(🔺 7)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/187645" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Star Wars: Rebellion</a> <small>(2016)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔻 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#3</strong> <small>(🔺 1)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a> <small>(2021)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.1 <small>(🔻 0.4)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#4</strong> <small>(🔺 36)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/285774" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Marvel Champions: The Card Game</a> <small>(2019)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔺 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#5</strong> <small>(🔺 43)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> <small>(2021)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.1 <small>(🔺 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#6</strong> <small>(🔺 31)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/324856" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: Mission Deep Sea</a> <small>(2021)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.2 <small>(🔺 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#7</strong> <small>(🔺 34)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/366013" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Heat: Pedal to the Metal</a> <small>(2022)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.1 <small>(🔺 0.1)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#8</strong> <small>(🔻 2)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a> <small>(2020)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.0 <small>(🔻 0.4)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#9</strong> <small>(🔻 2)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167791" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terraforming Mars</a> <small>(2016)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">7.9 <small>(🔻 0.4)</small></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>#10</strong> <small>(🔺 11)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167355" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nemesis</a> <small>(2018)</small></td>
<td style="text-align:center">8.0 <small>(🔻 0.2)</small></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>At first glance, it might seem curious that some games from the current BGG top 10 stay (more or less) put whilst others fall off. The reason for this is that both <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a> are considered to be both strategy and thematic games, two of the most popular categories, and so the model weighs them down twice. Instead, we see some of the top rated customisable, abstract and family games in this adjusted top 10. Download the full new ranking <a href="ranking_debiased_game_type.csv">here</a>.</p>
<h1 id="removing-the-bias-towards-cooperative-games">Removing the bias towards cooperative games</h1>
<p>Let&rsquo;s take a look at one final categorical feature to debias: competitive vs cooperative games. Cooperative games have been on the rise for a number of years now, winning six out of ten <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> awards since I started my predictions in <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/">2020</a>. While less than 9% of all games in our dataset are cooperative, on average they have a significanly higher (by almost 0.48 points) rating compared to competitive games:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/debiasing-boardgamegeek-ranking/plot_cat_cooperative.png"
	alt="Violin plot: competitive/cooperative games vs their ratings"
	 />

<p>We can go through the exercise of debiasing the ratings and calculating a new ranking here too, but the outcome would pretty much be just the standard BGG ranking with the cooperative games filter out (or rather weighed down). If you really want to take a look, you can download the new ranking <a href="ranking_debiased_cooperative.csv">here</a>.</p>
<h1 id="removing-all-the-biases">Removing ALL the biases</h1>
<p>OK, so you might be thinking by now why I went through all that trouble, in particular since complexity, playing time and game types are all so strongly correlated. You&rsquo;ve probably also been thinking <em>association isn&rsquo;t causation</em>. You&rsquo;d be right: viewing those different features <em>individually</em>, this approach yields nothing but correlations. But take them all <em>together</em> and we get a shot at a bit of <a href="https://matheusfacure.github.io/python-causality-handbook/05-The-Unreasonable-Effectiveness-of-Linear-Regression.html">causal inference</a>.</p>
<p>How does it work? So far, I&rsquo;ve calculated those trend lines using simple linear regression (also known as the ordinary least squares method) in a single explanatory variable. But the maths works just the same in higher dimensions and we can throw in <em>all</em> the features discussed above into a single model, predicting again the game&rsquo;s rating, but now with much more information. The outcome is this:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Estimated rating</strong> =<br>
-0.031 * age in years<br>
+0.567 * complexity score<br>
-0.001 * minimum playing time in minutes<br>
+0.199 * if cooperative<br>
+0.167 * if an abstract game<br>
-0.029 * if a children&rsquo;s game<br>
-0.030 * if a customizable game<br>
+0.225 * if a family game<br>
+0.274 * if a party game<br>
+0.125 * if a strategy game<br>
+0.125 * if a thematic game<br>
+0.485 * if a war game<br>
+5.700</p>
</blockquote>
<h1 id="the-boring-details">The boring details</h1>
<p>In order to have good data and comparable values for all those corrections, I had to filter out games by certain criteria. We only only considered games which:</p>
<ul>
<li>have a ranking (i.e., are rated by at least 30 users),</li>
<li>have a complexity score,</li>
<li>have been released between 1970 and 2024 and</li>
<li>have a minimum playing time of at most 3 hours.</li>
</ul>
<p>This includes 23,325 of the 26,266 currently ranked games (88.8%), but does exclude some notable games, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/233078" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Imperium (Fourth Edition)</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/91" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paths of Glory</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/1" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Die Macher</a> (too long), as well as</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/521" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Crokinole</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/188" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Go</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/5" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Acquire</a> (too old).</li>
</ul>
<p>Those are the highest ranked exclusions. While it&rsquo;s definitely sad to miss out on those and some other games, they make up only 2% of the top 1000 games on BGG, so I feel it&rsquo;s a reasonable tradeoff.</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>What was the best year for board games?</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 22 Aug 2024 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/</guid>
<description><p>Corey Thompson (of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@aboveboardTV">Above Board TV</a> and <a href="https://dicetowerdish.com/">Dice Tower Dish</a> fame) recently raised an interesting <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3336646/playtesting-327">question</a> on the <a href="https://boardgamesinsider.com/">Board Games Insider podcast</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In what year do you think the best titles (highest rated titles) were released?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He actually answered the question twice, first in episode <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/blogpost/163710/board-games-insider-328-the-one-about-the-spiel-de">#328</a> based on an analysis he ran a couple of years ago and then again in <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/blogpost/164172/board-games-insider-330-the-one-about-the-biggest">#330</a> with more up-to-date data. I&rsquo;m not going to spoil his answer here – the podcast in general is worth a listen – so go and find those episodes on your favourite podcast platform. But of course I couldn&rsquo;t help but answer the question myself, in the most needlessly thorough way possible. 🤓</p>
<h1 id="boring-technicalities">Boring technicalities</h1>
<p>First of all, we need to make sure we understand what the question is asking. I&rsquo;d say there&rsquo;s two general ways to interpret it: either average the ratings of the games released in a given year, or average all the ratings for all the games of that year. I think the difference between those approaches becomes much clearer with an example: Let&rsquo;s pick the year 1995. There&rsquo;s 224 ranked games from that year; all games (ranked and unranked) received a total of 276,158 ratings as of the time of writing. The former approach would be to average the individual ratings of those 224 games, whilst the latter would mean taking the average of those quarter of a million ratings. The reason why I picked 1995 as an example is of course because that year is dominated by <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a>: This giant amongst hobby games alone accounts for almost half all the ratings from 1995. So when averaging games&rsquo; ratings, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a> would have as much weight as some forgotten title with 30 ratings (the minimum required to be ranked). On the other hand, if we take the average over all ratings, we&rsquo;d have less an average rating of that year and more of an average for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a>. Neither approach would be right or wrong, they&rsquo;re just different choices, so let&rsquo;s try them both out.</p>
<h1 id="data-from-rankings">Data from rankings</h1>
<h2 id="average-ratings">Average ratings</h2>
<p>Using the average of games actually presents two different options in its own right because BoardGameGeek (BGG) uses both plain averages for display purposes and Bayesian averages for <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">rankings</a>. Let&rsquo;s start from the plain average:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/avg_ratings_from_rankings_scatter.svg"
	alt="Yearly average ratings from ranked games"
	 />

<p>Every dot is a year between 1970 (before then very few games have enough ratings) and 2023, with its height on the <em>y</em>-axis indicating the average rating of all games released in that year (higher is better) and the size of the dot indicating the number of games. The acceleration in the past few years is striking, so looking at this plot the answer to Corey&rsquo;s question would definitely have to be: <strong>2023</strong> (and counting).</p>
<h2 id="geek-scores">Geek scores</h2>
<p>But we might want to refrain from using those plain averages in this context for the same reason they&rsquo;re not used for ranking: the averages for games with few ratings are just too swingy. So let&rsquo;s look at the Bayesian averages (aka geek scores) instead:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/bayes_ratings_from_rankings_scatter.svg"
	alt="Yearly average geek score from ranked games"
	 />

<p>There&rsquo;s a couple of interesting observations about this plot. First of, there&rsquo;s a much more uniform linear trend going on, though there&rsquo;s a notable drop in the last two years. That can easily be explained by the way the Bayesian averages are calculated: the dummies ratings that get added to the regular ones weigh much heavier on games with fewer ratings, which naturally is the case for newer games. So this plot tells us that <strong>2019</strong> should be considered the best year.</p>
<h2 id="linear-regression">Linear regression</h2>
<p>Is it though? Or is it simply the most recent year with complete data? Shouldn&rsquo;t the best year be the one that defeated the trend? To answer those questions, let&rsquo;s first make the trend explicit:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/bayes_ratings_from_rankings_reg.svg"
	alt="Yearly average geek score from ranked games (including trend line)"
	 />

<p>I&rsquo;ve added the <em>line of best fit</em>, i.e., the one that follows the trend most closely, via standard linear regression. The shaded band indicates the 95% confidence interval, i.e., we can be 95% confident that the true trend line lies within that band.</p>
<p>Very simply put, the trends tells us that the average game from 1970 has a geek score of around 5.516. This makes sense, since it is strongly pulled towards the value 5.5 of the dummy ratings added to calculate this Bayesian average. According to the trend, that geek score then increases year on year by about 0.004. This might not sound like much, but 53 years later, in 2023, the average game should have a geek score of 5.722. In increase of over 0.2 is huge for a score that is so strongly drawn to its mean.</p>
<p>Of course, I was now talking of the hypothetical scores if they were indeed lining up perfectly on that trend line. The reality is slightly more messy, and we can now calculate the difference between the actual average values for a year and the trend line. Years that beat the expecation from the trend lie above that line, underperforming years under the line. So now we can find the year that is the best in relation to the trend of its time, which is … 🥁 … <strong>1977</strong>. This might not be the most obvious year at first glance, but when looking more closely, it did bring forth iconic titles such as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/1035" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Squad Leader</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/15" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cosmic Encounter</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/811" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Rummikub</a>. In light of those games, I&rsquo;d say it&rsquo;s a well earned title.</p>
<p>Now, one can also look at the underperforming years. Generally, it appears that the 70s are still held in high regards, whilst from the mid 80s to the mid 00s most years are underperforming, with the worst year being <strong>1996</strong>. This makes 1995 with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a>, as well as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/93" style="font-variant: small-caps;">El Grande</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/220" style="font-variant: small-caps;">High Society</a>, stand out even more.</p>
<h1 id="data-from-ratings">Data from ratings</h1>
<p>I&rsquo;ve promised a different way to calculate the average ratings for each year, so now we look at all the individual ratings for all the games released in that year and average those. Here&rsquo;s the result plot:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/avg_ratings_from_ratings_scatter.svg"
	alt="Yearly average ratings"
	 />

<p>We see a similar increasing trend, but one that does continue to the present, so again, we&rsquo;d have to say that the best year for games is <strong>2023</strong>. Another interesting observation is that the slope is much steeper. Let&rsquo;s make this concrete:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/highest-rated-year/avg_ratings_from_ratings_reg.svg"
	alt="Yearly average ratings (including trend line)"
	 />

<p>Again, the trend tells us that the average rating for 1970 is 5.926, but here the yearly increase is almost 0.03, an order of magnitude higher than when we looked at the geek scores, so we end up with a trend of 7.471 for 2023.</p>
<p>So, what years are the biggest winners and losers compared to the trend? The biggest overperformer, by quite a margin, is <strong>1980</strong> according to this measure. It got classics such as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/71" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Civilization</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/41" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Can&rsquo;t Stop</a> going for itself, which hit really hard in this metric since there&rsquo;s so few ratings for those old games, as you can tell by those vanishingly small dots. Other strong positive outliers are 1982 (with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/2511" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/2653" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Survive: Escape from Atlantis!</a>), as well as the aforementioned 1995 and 1977.</p>
<p>The most disappointing year in this category is <strong>2001</strong>, which is curiously nested between the strong 2000 (<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/822" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Carcassonne</a>) and 2002 (<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/3076" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Puerto Rico</a>).</p>
<h2 id="testing-for-significance">Testing for significance</h2>
<p>I promised excrutiating details, didn&rsquo;t I? So I&rsquo;ve gotta answer one more question: Are those outliers significant, or are they just randomly spread around the trend line? Statistical testing is a vast field – so vast in fact that I always feel completely lost whenever I enter it.</p>
<p>So let&rsquo;s not make things overly complicated. In their most basic form, most of those tests boil down to checking if values we&rsquo;re looking at don&rsquo;t stray too far from the mean. In our case, we look at the distances between actual values and the trend line and check how they are distributed. Those values that lie more than two standard deviations from the mean could be considered significant outliers.</p>
<p>If you&rsquo;re not interested in any of those statistical details, you can just call your favourite software package to calculate the <em>p</em>-value, which – roughly speaking – tells you the probability that the effect you observed is due to random chance. The smaller the <em>p</em>-value, the more likely you&rsquo;ve observed the actual effect you were interested in. Usually, an arbitrary threshold is chosen, often 5%. Observations with a <em>p</em>-value below that threshold are considered significant.</p>
<p>In our case, we have two years significantly outperforming the trend (1980 and 1982) and two significantly underperforming (1996 and 2001). So, I guess we can conclude by calling those years the confirmed best and worst years, respectively.</p>
<p>Except, it&rsquo;s not that simple. (I wasn&rsquo;t lying when I said I&rsquo;d be going into unnecessary depths. 🤓) One possible interpretation of that 5% threshold is that you&rsquo;ll get positive results just by random chance in 1 in 20 experiments. But when we just calculated <em>p</em>-values for 53 years, we effectively performed 53 experiments, so a couple of years sticking out randomly would actually be expected. Again, there&rsquo;s a vast body of research to deal with those multiple tests. For good measure, I&rsquo;ve checked the outcome for the procedures according to Bonferroni, Holm and Benjamini–Hochberg, but the result is the same for all of them: None of the years differ significantly from the trend. So I guess I&rsquo;ve just wrote over 1500 words just to conclude that the best years in board gaming are yet to come. There&rsquo;s some comfort in that.</p>
<h1 id="golden-age-or-cult-of-the-new">Golden age or cult of the new?</h1>
<p>Let me finish with a more philosophical thought: We&rsquo;ve collected a lot of evidence to confidently conclude that the average ratings have been increasing over the years and continue to do so, but what is the reason for this? Is it because we are, as many people claim, in a &ldquo;golden age of board gaming&rdquo;? Or is it a by-product of the &ldquo;cult of the new&rdquo; which willingly drops hundreds of dollars on games that don&rsquo;t even exist yet, but which receive perfect ratings from their backers as if to reassure themselves that this was a sound investment?</p>
<p>I don&rsquo;t think there&rsquo;s a definitive answer. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grade_inflation">Grade inflation</a> is a real thing, and if it affects professional teachers who (hopefully) put a lot of thought and attention into the way they rate students, I&rsquo;d say it&rsquo;s safe to assume the same will be true for some random people judging games on a website.</p>
<p>But it&rsquo;s also true that designer games are still a very young art form and their creators have made a tremendous amount of progress in their craft over the past decades. In that respect, it&rsquo;s understandable that gamers want to express their appreciation for those advances. Let&rsquo;s just hope we won&rsquo;t run out of rating space before this century is over: At the current pace, every game will be a perfect 10 by the year 2110.</p>
<p><em>You can find the full results from the ranking data <a href="years_from_rankings.csv">here</a> and the test results <a href="years_from_rankings_stats.csv">here</a>, results from the rating data <a href="years_from_ratings.csv">here</a> and corresponding test results <a href="years_from_ratings_stats.csv">here</a>. As always, you can find the full analysis code and notebooks on <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog/-/tree/master/experiments/highest_rated_year">GitLab</a>.</em></p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2024 winners</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-winners/</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jul 2024 22:54:32 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-winners/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-winners/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The cat&rsquo;s out of the bag and the winners <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/spiel-des-jahres-2024-sky-team/">have been announced</a>!</p>
<p>This year’s show was… even longer… 😅 After <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/">last year</a> I&rsquo;ve hoped for a snappier show – instead it was further extended. As much as I appreciate the jury&rsquo;s work (which I&rsquo;ve expressed <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/thoughts-on-spiel-des-jahres/">at length</a>), the stage isn&rsquo;t where they shine, so I don&rsquo;t understand why we need two awkward hours of their presence. It&rsquo;s understandable they want to highlight various aspects of board gaming and their activities, since those are the only two hours of attention they get all year, but just as an endless recommendation list would water down the award, the rule in showbiz is to make every minute count.</p>
<p>Anyways, trying not to fall into the same trap, here are the winners of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span>!</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2024span"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-winners/sdj-2024_hucf4f2d326e49a8739ab5d34c3e7a1437_182646_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame373106-stylefont-variant-small-capssky-teama"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a></h2>
<p><em>2 players, 15 minutes, 12+ years, medium light (2.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-winners/373106_hu97427be324144f781a4f56e16ba66c2e_752870_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Sky Team"
	 />

<p><em>Pilot and co-pilot work together to land planes.</em></p>
<p>To <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/#2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame373106-stylefont-variant-small-capssky-teama">quote</a> myself:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> is highly praised, but has next to no chance of winning.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I guess I was wrong. 😅 It goes to show that any perceived patterns in the jury&rsquo;s decisions are just based on very small samples. Harald Schrapers, the jury chairman, always emphasises that the only thing they really care about is the fun in the game. And by all accounts, no game was as much fun this year as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a>.</p>
<p>Still, this remains a remarkable choice, because the award&rsquo;s family friendliness was the guiding principle behind the decisions over the past 45 years. It remains to be seen if the market is willing to go along with this new direction.</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2024span"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-winners/ksdj-2024_hud0c5fe72d838d864bf995593a7e0a793_154520_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame334986-stylefont-variant-small-capsdaybreaka"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 10+ years, medium (3.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-winners/334986_huaff8fc9583ce0db0f8ddfe6febb1eacb_3410995_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Daybreak"
	 />

<p><em>Cooperatively decarbonize the planet and create resilient societies.</em></p>
<p><em>Kulturgut Spiel</em> is alive and well! 🥳 Also, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=378">Matt Leacock</a> finally got his first main award with his … checking <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/game-designer-hall-of-fame/">notes</a> … fifth nomination.</p>
<p>This is a great choice on so many levels. A fun game with a serious, yet not imposing, message, which <em>en passant</em> proves that the jury doesn&rsquo;t always just go with the safe and shallow choices. I can only hope this game will be found underneath countless Christmas trees this year, encourage some honest conversations about the climate crisis (and importantly, the solutions), and encourage more designers to tackle serious topics in their games.</p>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>Another year with two co-operative winners after <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/">2021</a>, and two particularly complex ones by the last few years&rsquo; standards. Maybe this saves us some of the annual &ldquo;<span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is only for kids and party games&rdquo; discussions next year.</p>
<p>The last thing to notice is that the irony of having <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a> share the winners&rsquo; photo with a game about flying, as well as the plastic heavy <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span> winner <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/368899" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Magic Keys</a>, seems to be completely lost on the jury. Maybe they should seek some professional help with their show next year – to make it more entertaining and ensure we&rsquo;re back on time for supper. 😋</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2024 predictions – Part 2!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/</link>
<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jul 2024 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The waiting is finally coming to an end! On Sunday, July 21, the jury will announce the winners of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span>. We&rsquo;re blessed with another year of very strong games and I&rsquo;m certainly very excited to learn what games will win the two awards.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;ve been doing this <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/">for</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/">four</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/">years</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/">now</a> and I&rsquo;ve called seven out of the eight winners correctly. No reason to rest on any laurels – there&rsquo;s another batch of awards coming up, and this year might be the closest race yet!</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2024span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/sdj-2024_hucf4f2d326e49a8739ab5d34c3e7a1437_182646_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<p>Before we dive into the individual games, let&rsquo;s look at some numbers to see some objective measures for them – as far as this is possible. What we&rsquo;ve got at our disposal are the <a href="reviews.csv">jury&rsquo;s reviews</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2024&amp;yearMax=2023&amp;include=376683,393325,373106,350933,390092,334986&amp;excludeRated=false">recommendations to the <code>S_d_J</code> bot</a>, BoardGameGeek&rsquo;s average rating and the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">Bayesian rating</a>. Additionally, I&rsquo;ve created a <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3319930/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2024-and-kennerspiel-des-jah">poll on BGG</a> where the geeks could have their say:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="reviews.csv">Jury</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2024&amp;yearMax=2023&amp;include=376683,393325,373106&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3319930/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2024-and-kennerspiel-des-jah">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/393325" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Captain Flip</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.2 (5)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">5.3</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">28.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/376683" style="font-variant: small-caps;">In the Footsteps of Darwin</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.0 (3)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">5.1</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.4</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">13.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.8</strong> (4)</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.2</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.5</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>57.9%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Obviously, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> is the high favourite according to all metrics. But will the jury follow the numbers? Let&rsquo;s take a closer look at all the nominees and their pros and cons.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame393325-stylefont-variant-small-capscaptain-flipa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/393325" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Captain Flip</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.1)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/393325_huf5ac888e94b874ca0eb9ef92a22015f7_2908258_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Captain Flip"
	 />

<p><em>Hoist your flag, recruit a colorful crew, and earn as many gold coins as you can.</em></p>
<p>The first release by <a href="https://boardgamewire.com/index.php/2023/06/20/7-wonders-creator-repos-productions-co-founder-launch-new-publishing-company-playpunk/">PlayPunk</a>, co-founded by <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/game-designer-hall-of-fame/">hall of fame</a> member <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=9714">Antoine Bauza</a>, immediately landed them their first nomination. This game is doing to <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7640">Paolo Mori</a>&rsquo;s <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/125618" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Libertalia</a> what <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/264055" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Draftosaurus</a> did to <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/68448" style="font-variant: small-caps;">7 Wonders</a>. That&rsquo;s a lot of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> cred in just two sentences.</p>
<p>On the surface, there isn&rsquo;t all that much to this game of flipping tiles and filling your ship with a colourful set of characters. It&rsquo;s quite random and solitaire – yet this design somehow manages to pull the magic trick of keeping everyone around the table invested in every single draw and flip of a tile. It&rsquo;s fast, it&rsquo;s immediate, it&rsquo;s fun – in other words: it&rsquo;s perfect <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> material.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame376683-stylefont-variant-small-capsin-the-footsteps-of-darwina"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/376683" style="font-variant: small-caps;">In the Footsteps of Darwin</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20–30 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.6)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/376683_hucaeb057fa47f1e0ce1e4e79ccb76f775_465196_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="In the Footsteps of Darwin"
	 />

<p><em>Assist Charles Darwin with his research for On the Origins of Species.</em></p>
<p>I&rsquo;ll admit I have neither played nor heard all that much about this game until <a href="https://youtu.be/gLEq5l4RfWY?si=pHwe9qF5Hpg0eKda">Ben Maddox&rsquo;s interview</a> which I&rsquo;ve mentioned in the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/thoughts-on-spiel-des-jahres/">previous article</a>. One very interesting outcome was that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/376683" style="font-variant: small-caps;">In the Footsteps of Darwin</a> was designed from the onset very intentionally with winning awards in mind. So far this plan seems to (almost) work out: The game got nominated for both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_d'Or">As d&rsquo;Or</a> and <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, widely regarded as the most important awards in board gaming. It didn&rsquo;t win the former, but now has the chance to win the latter.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame373106-stylefont-variant-small-capssky-teama"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a></h2>
<p><em>2 players, 15 minutes, 12+ years, medium light (2.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/373106_hu97427be324144f781a4f56e16ba66c2e_752870_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Sky Team"
	 />

<p><em>Pilot and co-pilot work together to land planes.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> is only the third two-player-game to be nominated for either <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> after <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12002" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Jambo</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/118048" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Targi</a>. Of course, neither of them won, and I&rsquo;ve already made the somewhat bold statement during the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/#2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame373106-stylefont-variant-small-capssky-teama">nominations predictions</a> that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> &ldquo;has next to no chance of winning&rdquo;. I&rsquo;m not so sure of that anymore. For starters, there were similar sentiments that card games or co-ops wouldn&rsquo;t have a chance of winning <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> – until they did. Also, the jury stated that one can simply play this game in teams – given that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik</a> are essentially solo games that play well with a group, I&rsquo;d say this logic checks out.</p>
<p>Of course, the strongest argument for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> is its overwhelming reception, both within the geek community (it&rsquo;s en route of breaking into the BGG top 100) and the jury (just look at the phenominal average score of 8.8).</p>
<p>One last thought about it being nominated on the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red list</strong></em></span> even though most pundits had it under <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>anthracite</strong></em></span>. First off, it should prove that <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> isn&rsquo;t nearly as shallow as the grognards want us to believe. Second, it shows that the question of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> or <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> is much less about <em>complexity</em> and much more about <em>approachability</em>. The studio did a great job of providing a clear yet compelling first game experience, while literally hiding the extra material (and complexity) at first.</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win">Who will win?</h2>
<p>It may be my ignorance, but <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/376683" style="font-variant: small-caps;">In the Footsteps of Darwin</a> is for me the outsider amongst the nominees. I have a really hard time deciding between the other two games. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> appears to be quite an exceptional game, but maybe the whole two-player-curse is still too much of a burden. In the end, my (proverbial) money is on <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/393325" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Captain Flip</a> – it&rsquo;d be the winner most in keeping with the most recent choices.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2024span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/ksdj-2024_hud0c5fe72d838d864bf995593a7e0a793_154520_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<p>Let&rsquo;s take a look at the same metrics as above, but for the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> nominees:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="reviews.csv">Jury</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2024&amp;yearMax=2023&amp;include=350933,390092,334986&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3319930/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2024-and-kennerspiel-des-jah">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.3</strong> (4)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">4.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.8</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>40.8%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.3 (3)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.7</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">24.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">8.0 (2)</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.8</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.3</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">34.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a> hasn&rsquo;t been available in retail for very long (not at all yet in Europe outside Germany), which harms its rating related metrics. This way, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy</a> looks like the favourite by those numbers, but <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a> would be the frontrunner according to the jury and the poll. Again, let&rsquo;s take a look at the nominees in details to understand their chances of winning.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame334986-stylefont-variant-small-capsdaybreaka"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 10+ years, medium (3.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/334986_huaff8fc9583ce0db0f8ddfe6febb1eacb_3410995_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Daybreak"
	 />

<p><em>Cooperatively decarbonize the planet and create resilient societies.</em></p>
<p>I had the good fortune of trying out <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a> at SPIEL Essen last year. I&rsquo;ll admit, when I sat down at the table, I was overwhelmed by the flurry of icons. 😵💫 But quickly, the gears all fit together and the beautiful thematic touches won over my heart before we&rsquo;d finish the second round. This design is a masterpiece and the way it manages to make a statement without forgetting to be a fun game experience is quite outstanding.</p>
<p>This doesn&rsquo;t mean it&rsquo;s perfect – game play can feel fairly solitaire and some thematic choices aren&rsquo;t to everybody&rsquo;s taste. Some called the game too easy, other too hard. Some find the heavy topic of the climate crisis disturbing their escapism, others find the game overly optimistic and relying too much on technical advances for its solutions. And pretty much every German seems to take offence with nuclear power being presented as a green source of energy. So should this game receive the award, I think it&rsquo;s safe to say it&rsquo;s going to generate some conversations, both in public and around the Christmas tree. In my opinion, this is the strongest argument for making <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a> the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel 2024</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350933-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-guild-of-merchant-explorersa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (2.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/350933_hucad32aad247baa0dd3860bde1af76fcd_107956_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Guild of Merchant Explorers"
	 />

<p><em>Explore strange lands, establish trade routes, and search for treasure.</em></p>
<p>This game is so old, not only did I already predict it to be on the longlist <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/#7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350933-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-guild-of-merchant-explorersa">last year</a>, but <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/peersylvester.bsky.social/post/3kuntlbj3jy2t">reportedly</a> even its German publisher had already marked it as &ldquo;out of print&rdquo;. Now it&rsquo;s nominated for the biggest award in board gaming and can hope for many more print runs to come.</p>
<p>Despite its age, I still haven&rsquo;t played it, so I don&rsquo;t have much more to say about <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a>. My impression is that it was received very warmly and the nomination certainly wasn&rsquo;t a surprise (other than it not being clear what year it belongs to), but I haven&rsquo;t heard of much enthusiasm either, so a win would come unexpectedly.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame390092-stylefont-variant-small-capsticket-to-ride-legacy-legends-of-the-westa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20–90 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.5)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions-part-2/390092_hu1dc0bc647f815474c6ad336f034723a8_2128191_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West"
	 />

<p><em>Build train lines across the United States in a twelve-game campaign.</em></p>
<p>This game might be the first hobby board game I&rsquo;d call a true blockbuster title: the biggest publisher in town hires some of the most famous designers to make one of the most popular titles even bigger. <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/">Marvelisation</a> in action. Of course, just as Marvel movies can be perfectly executed and highly entertaining cinema, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy</a> has received high praises for its game play experience.</p>
<p>This experience comes at a cost though. The game retails for 100 euros or more, which is an extremely steep ask for an award that otherwise emphasises approachability every chance they get. It would be very disappointing if the jury displayed this kind of blatant disregard of the economic reality of many of its target audience.</p>
<p>And then there&rsquo;s the issue of the game&rsquo;s narrative: Unlike in classic <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/9209" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride</a>, where you&rsquo;re simply riding the existing railroads, the legacy version is all about building and expanding westwards. For that, it heavily relies on the common tropes of the &ldquo;Old West&rdquo;, which is often romanticised in American culture. The designers themselves acknowledge omitting its darker side in a pretty tired note at the end of the rulebook:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Native American tribes were dispossessed and killed. Railroad laborers were exploited, mistreated, and injured. While designing this experience, we found no way to include these elements within the lighter theme of the game.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The German edition made it somehow even worse by translating &ldquo;light&rdquo; as &ldquo;shallow&rdquo;. I don&rsquo;t say that every game needs to address every possible problematic aspect of its setting nor that the jury shouldn&rsquo;t have nominated <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">TtR Legacy</a> because of it, but a note like this just seems like a poor excuse. Harald Schrapers, the jury chairman, wrote an essay in <a href="https://spielbox.de/">Spielbox</a> 2024/2 expressing his disappointment about the thematic embedding – and yet he still ranks <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">TtR Legacy</a> amongst <a href="https://gamesweplay.de/">his top games of 2024</a>.</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win-1">Who will win?</h2>
<p>I guess I made my position pretty clear: if the jury takes their own mission of promoting <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/thoughts-on-spiel-des-jahres/"><em>Kulturgut Spiel</em></a> seriously, they need to hand the award to <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a>, period. Even leaving the somewhat political considerations aside, there&rsquo;s too many aspects speaking <em>against</em> <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy</a> and not enough <em>for</em> <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a>, so my clear favourite on all acounts is <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a>.</p>
<p>I feel I&rsquo;ve leaned pretty far out of the window, especially given that I called this the closest race yet. 😅 We shall see if my predictions come true on July 21 – I&rsquo;ll be even more excited than usual!</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Thoughts on Spiel des Jahres</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/thoughts-on-spiel-des-jahres/</link>
<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jun 2024 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/thoughts-on-spiel-des-jahres/</guid>
<description><p>Some of you might have notices that I&rsquo;m a bit of a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> fanboy. 🙃 Every year when the award season rolls around, the discussion about the purpose and the influence of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> comes up again. So I thought it&rsquo;s a good idea to collect my thoughts on the subject in one handy place I can easily reference in the future. 🤓</p>
<h1 id="whats-the-purpose-of-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan">What&rsquo;s the purpose of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>?</h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/thoughts-on-spiel-des-jahres/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>Let&rsquo;s get something fundamental out of the way: what is the purpose of not just this award, but <em>any</em> award? Here&rsquo;s the definition from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Award">Wikipedia</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>An award, sometimes called a distinction, is given to a recipient as a token of recognition of excellence in a certain field.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Maybe more important for our discussion isn&rsquo;t what the award is for, but <em>whom</em> it is for. Broadly speaking, there&rsquo;s two categories here: <em>inward</em> facing awards and <em>outward</em> facing awards.</p>
<p>Inward facing awards are given by a certain community (or a subset of it) to its members. The main goal is to bring the community together, recognise current achievements and discuss future directions. Most academic and industry awards fall into this category, as well as popularity contests in board gaming such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutscher_Spiele_Preis">Deutscher Spielepreis</a> and the <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/award/8314/golden-geek-awards">Golden Geek</a>. In the most reductive way, it&rsquo;s about the community patting itself on the back.</p>
<p>Outward facing awards, on the other hand, are meant to highlight said &ldquo;excellence in a certain field&rdquo; to a wider audience. Those awards are less concerned about being cutting edge or seeking consensus within a community, but rather about promoting the field to the public. <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is firmly in this category. To quote <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/en/faq/">their FAQ</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Ultimately, the jury is concerned with selecting and rewarding those games that seem best suited to promote the cultural asset of board games in society.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>Kulturgut Spiel</em> or <em>games as a cultural asset</em> is a term you&rsquo;ll hear a lot when you listen to the jury. That&rsquo;s the most philosophical way to state their mission. The most reductive way to view <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is as a buyer&rsquo;s guide for people who are looking for one new game a year to play underneath the Christmas tree with their family. 🎄</p>
<p>I think internalising this mission goes a long way towards understanding what this award does and doesn&rsquo;t want to be.</p>
<p>Maybe this is also a good place to answer the question if <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is the &ldquo;best&rdquo; game of the year. The jury actually has an answer prepared for this, quoting their FAQ again:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Yes – but there is not THE one, objectively best game. Depending on the number of players, their experience, the time frame, etc., a jury member would suggest the one or the other game […].</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So in that respect, <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> <em>is</em> awarded to the best game of the year – best for the intended audience and purpose, according to the jury members. It certainly isn&rsquo;t the &ldquo;best&rdquo; game in any absolute sense – if there was one – nor the &ldquo;best&rdquo; according to the (largely) American hardcore gamers&rsquo; ratings on BoardGameGeek. And of course, the jury will get things wrong – classics emerge over time, and not every winner will stand the test of time. They often only have a few weeks to play and discuss the games, so it&rsquo;ll be impossible to predict the long term appeal of a game in all cases. I&rsquo;d say they have a strong track record regardless and built a strong reputation over the decades. 🏆</p>
<h1 id="who-are-the-jury-members">Who are the jury members?</h1>
<p>Another crucial aspect to understand about <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is the jury: who are they, who appoints them and who gives them the right to hand out this award? The short answer to the last question is: nobody. The jury decides who their members and what the purpose of the awards should be. There&rsquo;s no supervisory board, no government agency, no industry association that has any say in the matter. The <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> was founded by a group of journalists and game critics in 1978 who thought it would be useful to have an award that highlights great games to the public. Over the decades, the public has learnt to trust the jury&rsquo;s recommendations, and this trust really is the only currency the jury possesses. That&rsquo;s why they are very protective of their brand and will be very careful about any changes they might implement.</p>
<p>Currently, there&rsquo;s a dozen <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/en/the-jury/">jury members</a> voting for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. All of them review board games regularly, be it for print media such as news papers or special interest magazines like <a href="https://spielbox.de/">Spielbox</a>, on YouTube or on podcasts. I&rsquo;ll concede that not every jury members writes the sharpest analyses of board games or our industry and I don&rsquo;t know if they would qualify for a PhD in Ludology either. But what&rsquo;s more important: they play a lot and they play <em>with a lot of different people</em>. That&rsquo;s another fact that&rsquo;s often overlooked in the geek community: the jury members make a very active effort to reach the target audience, i.e., people outside the hardcore hobbyist crowd. What the geeks consider an easy gateway game might well be a considerable challenge for a person who doesn&rsquo;t have the same game literacy and tries to work out the rules from the rulebook in the dim light of the Christmas tree after the third glass of Glühwein. 🍷</p>
<p>A very valid criticism of the jury is it&rsquo;s a very small group of people – not a very diverse one, for that matter, but to their credit they&rsquo;ve clearly made an effort to include more women and younger jury members (still all white though). Partially, this is down to the job requirements: there simply aren&rsquo;t all that many people who are able and prepared to systematically play hundreds of games with dozens of people to collate their feedback. But that last point should ease the concern about the jury&rsquo;s size: they might be only twelve individuals, but through their various play groups they represent the taste and opinions of hundreds of people.</p>
<p>One last thing to emphasise about the jury: they all do this as an unpaid side gig. An important part of the jury&rsquo;s self-image is their independence, which necessitates that they don&rsquo;t take money from the industry or any other institution. So, when people &ldquo;demand&rdquo; the jury should be doing this and be better at that: remember that they&rsquo;re only humans with families and day jobs who do this in their precious spare time.</p>
<h1 id="the-good-old-days">The good old days…</h1>
<p>You&rsquo;ll frequently hear the complaints that <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> has become too shallow, in particular since the introduction of the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> in 2011 – an award which in turn has become too simple in many gamers&rsquo; eyes. Just quickly to that point: the jury made up the term <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, so they kind of get to decide what it means. It&rsquo;s often translated as <em>connoisseur game</em>, but that doesn&rsquo;t really capture its meaning. The name comes from <em>kennen</em>, i.e., it&rsquo;s an award for people who already <em>know</em> some games, no more, no less. As mentioned, the jury plays with a wide variety of people and they really experience when a game presents some hurdles of entry for some people, which is the much more important criterion that a game&rsquo;s &ldquo;complexity&rdquo;. So we should really take their word for it what they label <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. (And it&rsquo;s not like they are inconsistent about it – there clearly are <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/">some patterns</a> to it. 🤓)</p>
<p>But let&rsquo;s go back to those &ldquo;good old days&rdquo; in the second half of the 90s. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a> won <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> in 1995 – at that time, this was considered a really heavy pick (though the jury chairman <a href="https://x.com/HaraldSchrapers/status/1287829667211284480">Harald Schrapers</a> would still consider it for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>, not <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>). Seemingly, this opened a door and paved the way for titles such as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/93" style="font-variant: small-caps;">El Grande</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/54" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tikal</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/88" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Torres</a>, which would all be considered complex for a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> by today&rsquo;s standards. So were people really smarter back then and did they have longer attention spans? Or did the jury actually make mistakes in that period and lost a lot of people&rsquo;s trust?</p>
<p>I don&rsquo;t have any evidence for either interpretation – maybe people were excitedly playing <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/93" style="font-variant: small-caps;">El Grande</a> with grandma and grandchild, or maybe those winners gathered dust on people&rsquo;s shelves. What we do know is how this era came to an end: with a big scandal. In the early 2000s, the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> was financing a game archive and had to pick winners that would sell well in order to keep the money flowing. This kind of financial commitment put a lot of pressure on the jury and curtailed their independence. A winner like <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/98778" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hanabi</a> (which retails for less than ten euros and hence promises much less licensing fees) would have been unthinkable under those circumstances.</p>
<p>Overall, those years between 1996 and 2001 were hardly a golden age to be nostalgic about, but rather something of a questionable period. Luckily, the jury today operates much more transparently, is very careful about any financial commitment they make and will emphasise their independence every chance they get.</p>
<h1 id="does-it-represent-the-hobby">Does it represent the hobby?</h1>
<p>Another frequent comment under any <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> post is that it&rsquo;s irrelevant for &ldquo;real gamers&rdquo;. First off: If this is true, why bother posting? Where does all the hate about something irrelevant come from? I know social media has trained us to state our opinion on everything all the time, even (or especially) when we don&rsquo;t have anything to add to the discussion, but seriously: silence is always an option. 🤫</p>
<p>With that out of the way, it should be quite obvious that the award might not be relevant to any one individual, but it has a tremendous influence on the board game industry and hobby as a whole, in particular in Germany. I hear folks claim that <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is only relevant because it&rsquo;s from the largest board game country, but those people have the causality all wrong: The board game scene in Germany has grown so strong because it has had this guiding beam over the decades as the focal point that drew in generations after generations of gamers. It&rsquo;s hard to write a history of the German board game scene without <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and it&rsquo;s very unlikely Germany would hold its position within the industry without it. Even SPIEL Essen, the largest board game convention in the world, grew out of waves that <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> set in motion and was initially hosted in the very same location as the first award ceremony (a <a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkshochschule_Essen#Geb%C3%A4ude_an_der_Hollestra%C3%9Fe">school in Essen</a>).</p>
<p>But are the awarded games representative of the hobby? With well <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/#historical-perspective">over a thousand games released every year</a>, the twenty or so titles on the three longlists cannot possibly hope to cover the full breadth of the hobby. Admittedly, the jury doesn&rsquo;t even attempt to achieve a particular representation within their picks and it cannot be denied their recommendations come from a fairly narrow area of the hobby. One can lament this, but I&rsquo;d say that <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is where hobby and mass market games most strongly intersect, and within this contraint the jury usually does a great job at highlighting some exceptional games to a broader audience.</p>
<p>Here&rsquo;s another perspective for the geeks out there: <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is a great way to find games to play with your &ldquo;non-gamer&rdquo; friends and family. The <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red games</strong></em></span> should be pretty much safe to break out with just about anyone and a great way to introduce folks to modern board games. Unless they already have some experience, resist the temptation to skip straight to the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>anthracite games</strong></em></span> – don&rsquo;t introduce <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a> to brand new gamers, no matter how much you insist it&rsquo;s a gateway game to you.</p>
<p>Even for seasoned gamers, there are usually some interesting recommendations on the longlists. Here are a couple of great games from the past few years I might have missed if it wasn&rsquo;t for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">L.L.A.M.A.</a> (2019)</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299169" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Spicy</a> (2020)</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/317311" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Switch &amp; Signal</a> (2021)</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a> (2022)</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/345584" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mindbug</a> (2023)</li>
</ul>
<p>And then there&rsquo;s of course the <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. While I&rsquo;m not the target audience for the two &ldquo;grown up&rdquo; awards (nor are any one of you, dear readers of a board game blog 🤓), I&rsquo;m definitely on the lookout for new and interesting games to play with my daughters without spending any time to research the latest releases. That&rsquo;s why <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is such a valuable resource to me – so far, each and every winner we&rsquo;ve played was a hit with my girls, and I&rsquo;m already looking forward to trying out this year&rsquo;s winner. I know it&rsquo;s only a sample size of two, but at least my little gamers seem happy the award exists. 🥰</p>
<p>Finally, let&rsquo;s address the question if there should be an &ldquo;expert game&rdquo; category. This is a reasonable idea – after all, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_d'Or">As d&rsquo;Or</a>, often called the French equivalent of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and the second most important award in board gaming, does have an expert category. (In fact, they introduced <em>initié</em>, their <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, only in 2022, six years after the <em>expert</em> category.) I&rsquo;d be really curious to learn if <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/367517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">La Famiglia</a>, the three most recent winners of the expert game award, actually saw a notable increase of their sales in France. The jury <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> has always denied the necessity of such a category, arguing that expert gamers don&rsquo;t need the guidance they offer. Attention is a very limited resource, so any additional award would water down the others. The jury is laser focused on their mission promoting games to the public and an expert category would be a distraction from that. I agree: it would be one of those inward facing industry awards – interesting, for sure, but not as relevant to the wider public.</p>
<h1 id="do-they-fulfill-their-mission">Do they fulfill their mission?</h1>
<p>After more than two thousand words it&rsquo;s probably high time for some kind of conclusion. 😅 The jury set a lofty goal for themselves: promoting <em>Kulturgut Spiel</em>. It&rsquo;s only fair to ask: Do they succeed? Where could they improve?</p>
<p>The slightly cynical take is that <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> isn&rsquo;t so much promoting the hobby as it is promoting a handful of games, resulting in a large windfall for a few publishers and less attention for everyone else. I think this is the inevitable consequence of the awarding a single game a year (or three games by now). This sharp consumer focus has often been cited as the reasons for the award&rsquo;s success. Just compare this situation of every other award: there are usually dozens of categories – as a consumer, I&rsquo;m left more confused, not better informed. For the health of the industry, it would obviously be better if the reward was spread more evenly, but unfortunately, that&rsquo;s not how attention works. A significant departure from focussing the attention on a handful of games is likely going to make the award less relevant and hence less effective at promoting the hobby – to the detriment of all publishers.</p>
<p>Another angle I&rsquo;ve already alluded to is their focus on very light – one might say &ldquo;mass compatible&rdquo; – games. With the award promising such riches, it&rsquo;s only natural that publishers will release games explictly designed to win <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. There&rsquo;s a danger of this hurting creativity and innovation in the industry. So far though, board gaming is a sprawling and diverse hobby with more and more fresh ideas entering the market every year. And at least mechanically, <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> does encourage creativity: whilst the winners have become lighter over the years, it doesn&rsquo;t mean they don&rsquo;t put as much punch into a short play time, exactly because designers have learnt more &ldquo;efficient&rdquo; ways of designing games, something the jury has definitely encouraged through their picks.</p>
<p>Still, if one takes the <em>Kulturgut Spiel</em> concept seriously and regards board games as a form of art that&rsquo;s worth of academic study, shouldn&rsquo;t they also promote some of the the very deep and thoughtprovoking games that are being released off the beaten path? I think this is a very valid point and I wish the jury would find a way to achieve this goal. We shouldn&rsquo;t forget though that the award is only one aspect of the jury&rsquo;s work. Part of the licensing fees they collect for using their logo to promote the winners goes into <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/foerderprogramm/">funding board game related topics</a>, such as games for libraries, schools, clubs etc, a <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/stipendium/">stipend</a> for new game designers, <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/jetzt-bewerben-postdoc-stelle-fuer-brettspiel-forschung/">academic positions</a> and an <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/spielend-fuer-toleranz/">initiative</a> for tolerance and against racism.</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/thoughts-on-spiel-des-jahres/spielend-fuer-toleranz_hu2c36404f404663bdc43a0d9c3c2d5c53_91096_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spielend für Toleranz"
	 />

<p>Are those the right projects? Are they enough? Hard to say, obviously. One problem the (German) board game industry has been facing for some time is the lack of political organisation. There&rsquo;s no central lobby group and hence very little political attention to board gaming. The jury is probably the group with the most resources and clout to make a difference, but an independent group of a dozen volunteers is certainly not the right entity to shoulder this task. In the absence of a better alternative, many people turn to the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> jury and somewhat expect to turn their influence and financial means into miracles. That&rsquo;s a lot to ask from an award that simply set out to find the best game amongst a handful of releases back in the 70s!</p>
<h1 id="further-reading--listening">Further reading &amp; listening</h1>
<p>Since you&rsquo;ve made it this far, it&rsquo;s safe to assume you&rsquo;re a proper <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> nerd 🤓 (or hater 😢). Do yourself a favour and get a copy of <a href="https://aconytebooks.com/shop/everybody-wins-the-greatest-board-games-ever-made-by-james-wallis/">Everybody Wins by James Wallis</a>, possibly the best resource on the history of the world&rsquo;s most prestigious board game award. For coverage of the current award season, I hightly recommend the excellent <a href="https://fivegamesfordoomsday.com/">Five Games For Doomsday</a> podcast. Ben Maddox recently released an <a href="https://youtu.be/gLEq5l4RfWY?si=pHwe9qF5Hpg0eKda">interview with the designer</a> of 2024 nominee <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/376683" style="font-variant: small-caps;">In the Footsteps of Darwin</a> and I&rsquo;m sure more are to come. His <a href="https://fivegamesfordoomsday.com/2024/05/29/the-spielworxx-bulletin-the-spiel-des-jahres-episode/">discussion with Uli Blennemann</a> contains some really interesting takes and inspired me to write this article. So really, they are to blame for this wall of text! 😜</p>
<p>Thanks for making it to the end! I don&rsquo;t know if I managed to infect you with my <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> enthusiasm, or even slightly changed your mind if you&rsquo;re a sceptic, but I sincerely hope we now have a mutual understanding of the award and its purpose. <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> might not be perfect, but at least it should be clear that the jury is very thoughtful and intentional about it. A lot could be done differently, but it&rsquo;d be a very different award – one that I&rsquo;d find unlikely to be better at achieving the jury&rsquo;s mission. 😎</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2024 nominations</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/</link>
<pubDate>Tue, 11 Jun 2024 17:00:00 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p><a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/en/award-winners-2024/">Nominations are out</a>! The jury selected a total of sixteen games for their longlist, nine for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and seven for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Out of these games, three games each are nominated for the two awards and can hope to get the coveted meeple added to their covers on July 21.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s dive straight into the nominations and recommendations, before we discuss how good (or bad) <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/">my predictions</a> were and if the agreed with our <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</a>.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2024span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/sdj-2024_hucf4f2d326e49a8739ab5d34c3e7a1437_182646_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame393325-stylefont-variant-small-capscaptain-flipa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/393325" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Captain Flip</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.1), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/393325_huf5ac888e94b874ca0eb9ef92a22015f7_2908258_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Captain Flip"
	 />

<p><em>Hoist your flag, recruit a colorful crew, and earn as many gold coins as you can.</em></p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame376683-stylefont-variant-small-capsin-the-footsteps-of-darwina"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/376683" style="font-variant: small-caps;">In the Footsteps of Darwin</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20–30 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.6), 97% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/376683_hucaeb057fa47f1e0ce1e4e79ccb76f775_465196_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="In the Footsteps of Darwin"
	 />

<p><em>Assist Charles Darwin with his research for On the Origins of Species.</em></p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame373106-stylefont-variant-small-capssky-teama"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a></h2>
<p><em>2 players, 15 minutes, 12+ years, medium light (2.0), 66% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/373106_hu97427be324144f781a4f56e16ba66c2e_752870_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Sky Team"
	 />

<p><em>Pilot and co-pilot work together to land planes.</em></p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/414317" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Harmonies</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/393888" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Passt nicht!</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330592" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Phantom Ink</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/401885" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Schätz it if you can</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353288" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trekking Through History</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/352515" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trio</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2024span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/ksdj-2024_hud0c5fe72d838d864bf995593a7e0a793_154520_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame334986-stylefont-variant-small-capsdaybreaka"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 10+ years, medium (3.0), 99% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/334986_huaff8fc9583ce0db0f8ddfe6febb1eacb_3410995_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Daybreak"
	 />

<p><em>Cooperatively decarbonize the planet and create resilient societies.</em></p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350933-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-guild-of-merchant-explorersa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (2.0), 95% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/350933_hucad32aad247baa0dd3860bde1af76fcd_107956_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Guild of Merchant Explorers"
	 />

<p><em>Explore strange lands, establish trade routes, and search for treasure.</em></p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame390092-stylefont-variant-small-capsticket-to-ride-legacy-legends-of-the-westa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20–90 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.5), 94% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-nominations/390092_hu1dc0bc647f815474c6ad336f034723a8_2128191_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West"
	 />

<p><em>Build train lines across the United States in a twelve-game campaign.</em></p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/389102" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Bier Pioniere</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/413260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Botanicus</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/391163" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Forest Shuffle</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373055" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ritual</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="how-good-were-the-predictions">How good were the predictions?</h1>
<p>This really is a drama in three acts: the decision of <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> or not, the algorithm picking the longlist, and finally my guts picking the shortlist.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspielspan-score"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</h2>
<p>This was a bad year for the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</a>… 🙈 It classified four out of sixteen games wrong: It saw <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/414317" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Harmonies</a> as <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/413260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Botanicus</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373055" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ritual</a> as <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>. An acuracy of 75% is pretty poor – the only solace I can take is that I correctly saw <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> on the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red list</strong></em></span>… 🤷</p>
<h2 id="longlist">Longlist</h2>
<p>It&rsquo;s not getting better… 😅 The algorithm picked out only three out of nine games on the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> longlist, plus one game for the wrong award, plus one &ldquo;honourable mention&rdquo;. Things look a little brighter for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> where the algorithm predicted four out of seven entries, plus one honourable mention. In summary, this would be a 44% hit rate (63% if we count all those pluses). In a year where I was more confident about the longlist than in any previous edition, it&rsquo;s a bit disappointing.</p>
<p>There&rsquo;s some good news though: 11, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 22. Those are the positions on their respective prediction lists for seven out of the eight misses. I&rsquo;ll call those pretty close – <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373055" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ritual</a> on #292 of the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> list is the only catastrophic miss.</p>
<h2 id="shortlist">Shortlist</h2>
<p>Again, not great… Only two out of six nominees called correctly, one of them on the wrong list. That&rsquo;s my worst year so far – the score so far is two years with three and two years with four correct predictions. I did announce this more or less, but it&rsquo;s still a bit disappointing. I&rsquo;ve got some ideas how to improve the algorithm for next year, so let&rsquo;s hope it&rsquo;ll be better… 🤞</p>
<p>That&rsquo;s it for now, we&rsquo;ll be back soon with a little more in-depth analyses on the six nominees and their chances of winning an award.</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2024 predictions</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/</link>
<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2024 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span> is around the corner! As in <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">the</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/">previous</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/">four</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/">years</a>, I&rsquo;ll try to predict what games have the best shot at ending up on the longlist (aka <em>recommendations</em>) and the shortlist (aka <em>nominations</em>) when the jury announces their picks on June 11th.</p>
<p>As every year, I&rsquo;ll let the algorithms speak, but I&rsquo;ve added something new this year: I tried to track the jury members&rsquo; reviews of all eligible<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> games, in particular when they publish scores (such as in the magazine Spielbox), and fed those into the predictions. The other major contributor are the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;excludeRated=false&amp;yearMin=2023&amp;yearMax=2024">&ldquo;recommendendations to the jury&rdquo;</a>. Our very own <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/">Kennerspiel score</a> is then used to sort those into their respective list of the top 10 contenders for either award. You can find the <a href="04_predictions.py">detailed analysis here</a> and <a href="predictions.csv">complete results here</a>.</p>
<p>This is quite a curious year. Usually, I&rsquo;ve had quite clear favourites for the nominations or even the winners, but would find lots of surprises on the longlist. This year, however, there&rsquo;s been a large number of games with a really warm reception by the jury, which I believe we will see on the longlist, but not really any game that stands out as a clear favourite for the nominations.</p>
<p>The jury chairman, Harald Schrapers, already spoke some time ago of the <a href="https://brett-spiel.de/2023/uno-mau-mau-derivate-ftw-vs-passt-nicht/">year of the card games</a>, so prepare for lots of small but original card games in the predictions, which might be one reason why there&rsquo;s no clear favourite.</p>
<p>But without further ado, here are the favourite games to win <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2024span">Candidates for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/sdj-2024_hucf4f2d326e49a8739ab5d34c3e7a1437_182646_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame396542-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-same-gamea">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/396542" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Same Game</a></h2>
<p><em>3–6 players, 30–45 minutes, 10+ years, light (1.0), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/396542_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_820666_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Same Game"
	 />

<p><em>Discuss how completely different objects might share something in common.</em></p>
<p>A cooperative party game by <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=80162">Wolfgang Warsch</a> – <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/396542" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Same Game</a> is a game to watch!</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame390094-stylefont-variant-small-capsftwa">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390094" style="font-variant: small-caps;">FTW?!</a></h2>
<p><em>2–6 players, 25–40 minutes, 8+ years, 90% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/390094_hud6341971de27d203ebf04f48453607ca_579880_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="FTW?!"
	 />

<p><em>Play your cards cleverly to be the 1337 in FTW?!</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390094" style="font-variant: small-caps;">FTW?!</a>, an <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/2223" style="font-variant: small-caps;">UNO</a> variant, could be <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=141">Friedemann Friese</a>&rsquo;s first nomination in over a decade.</p>
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame400205-stylefont-variant-small-caps5-towersa">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/400205" style="font-variant: small-caps;">5 Towers</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 15–30 minutes, 7+ years, 79% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/400205_hu2ade0870ef6987c85906c3ea51431d39_389773_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="5 Towers"
	 />

<p><em>Get the most cards and build fantastic towers!</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=95143">Kasper Lapp</a> strikes again with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/400205" style="font-variant: small-caps;">5 Towers</a>!</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame392023-stylefont-variant-small-capsmyceliaa">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/392023" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mycelia</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45 minutes, 9+ years, medium light (2.0), 62% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/392023_hubd3ccb026b10fdb1173f00d7bb150dc7_1173172_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Mycelia"
	 />

<p><em>Attract help from forest dwellers to remove dewdrops from your field.</em></p>
<p>One of two games called <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/392023" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mycelia</a> from last year – what a sign if there ever was one that we&rsquo;ve had enough nature kitsch!</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame383458-stylefont-variant-small-capssidesa">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/383458" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sides</a></h2>
<p><em>2–9 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.0), 74% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/383458_hu91426305d6395ec1b10d7a5319655149_417594_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Sides"
	 />

<p><em>Team members work together to have two of them guessing hidden word.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/383458" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sides</a> looks a bit like a game generated by an AI that was trained on previous <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners. Make of that what you will.</p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame353288-stylefont-variant-small-capstrekking-through-historya">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353288" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trekking Through History</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.8), 93% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/353288_huad82e2b5c51c3e92144a5feec1dfe773_369292_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Trekking Through History"
	 />

<p><em>Time travel to some of the greatest moments in human history.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353288" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trekking Through History</a> used to have a beautiful cover. What has happened to it?</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame311930-stylefont-variant-small-capsblock-and-keya">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/311930" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Block and Key</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 20–40 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.7), 97% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/311930_hu81ca80ad69efb463b45729ad02af5656_287558_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Block and Key"
	 />

<p><em>Cleverly place 3D blocks in a shared space to unlock the key to victory points.</em></p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame352515-stylefont-variant-small-capstrioa">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/352515" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trio</a></h2>
<p><em>3–5 players, 15 minutes, 6+ years, light (1.0), 99% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/352515_hu3311edf7bef824c48ea912ac8485e2f3_331635_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Trio"
	 />

<p><em>Reveal anyone&rsquo;s lowest or highest card and keep going until there&rsquo;re three of a kind!</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/352515" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trio</a> has won this year&rsquo;s As d&rsquo;Or, France&rsquo;s answer to the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, so is definitely one to consider.</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame330592-stylefont-variant-small-capsphantom-inka">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330592" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Phantom Ink</a></h2>
<p><em>4–8 players, 10–15 minutes, 13+ years, light (1.1), 99% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/330592_hucaaf4cf7ffc68eb8d8be8fed93ef6d28_116070_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Phantom Ink"
	 />

<p><em>Spirits race to get their medium teammates to guess a secret object.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330592" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Phantom Ink</a> is another word guessing party game, but one with a lot of atmosphere. Its chances might be drastically improved by its much better German title.</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame381078-stylefont-variant-small-capscometa">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/381078" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Comet</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 45–75 minutes, 12+ years, medium light (2.0), 70% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/381078_hu30ee43616b37a5fedb148c35cbd36c04_1506328_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Comet"
	 />

<p><em>Save extinct and endangered species from their deadly fate by the threatening comet!</em></p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2024span">Candidates for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/ksdj-2024_hud0c5fe72d838d864bf995593a7e0a793_154520_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame390092-stylefont-variant-small-capsticket-to-ride-legacy-legends-of-the-westa">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20–90 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.5), 94% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/390092_hu1dc0bc647f815474c6ad336f034723a8_2128191_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West"
	 />

<p><em>Build train lines across the United States in a twelve-game campaign.</em></p>
<p>The jury states that they won&rsquo;t consider straight reimplementations of previous games, but they did nominate three different <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic</a> variants over the year. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390092" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West</a> could definitely find a place on the longlist.</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame373106-stylefont-variant-small-capssky-teama">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a></h2>
<p><em>2 players, 15 minutes, 12+ years, medium light (2.0), 66% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/373106_hu97427be324144f781a4f56e16ba66c2e_752870_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Sky Team"
	 />

<p><em>Pilot and co-pilot work together to land planes.</em></p>
<p>The last 2-player game to be nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> was <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/118048" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Targi</a> in 2012. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> is highly praised, but has next to no chance of winning.</p>
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame231733-stylefont-variant-small-capsobsessiona">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/231733" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Obsession</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–90 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.1), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/231733_hu1709a94f3d2ffe241af0c97b19453b97_703517_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Obsession"
	 />

<p><em>Renovate an estate, manage servants, and pursue romance in Victorian England.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/231733" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Obsession</a> was first released in 2018 and has gathered quite the following over the years, sitting at #62 on BGG.</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame391163-stylefont-variant-small-capsforest-shufflea">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/391163" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Forest Shuffle</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 40–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 94% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/391163_hua0d8c244c9ef3485b4c597c395f26e9f_376074_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Forest Shuffle"
	 />

<p><em>Gather the most valuable trees and attract species to them.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/391163" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Forest Shuffle</a> is high up on most pundits&rsquo; lists. I&rsquo;d say the theme is super bland, but at least in German its title is a pretty good pun.</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame328565-stylefont-variant-small-capscaper-europea">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328565" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Caper: Europe</a></h2>
<p><em>2 players, 25–35 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.1), 77% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/328565_hua24a68bae81419f910a59e6733283bea_812100_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Caper: Europe"
	 />

<p><em>Three heists. Two rivals. One criminal mastermind will rise to the top.</em></p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame366013-stylefont-variant-small-capsheat-pedal-to-the-metala">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/366013" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Heat: Pedal to the Metal</a></h2>
<p><em>1–6 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 66% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/366013_hu263c3da40cca15fa9e50357c7ed2dcf3_1212790_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Heat: Pedal to the Metal"
	 />

<p><em>Manage your race car&rsquo;s speed to keep from overheating.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/366013" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Heat</a> has been in the BGG hotness pretty much non-stop since its release and has climbed to #42. The jury however has not been as hot on it (pun intended) as the community.</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350933-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-guild-of-merchant-explorersa">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (2.0), 95% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/350933_hucad32aad247baa0dd3860bde1af76fcd_107956_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Guild of Merchant Explorers"
	 />

<p><em>Explore strange lands, establish trade routes, and search for treasure.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a> was actually also #7 on <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/#7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350933-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-guild-of-merchant-explorersa">last year&rsquo;s predictions</a>, but apparently the jury only considers it for this year. Sometimes that&rsquo;s the hardest part of the predictions. 🤷</p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame334986-stylefont-variant-small-capsdaybreaka">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 10+ years, medium (3.0), 99% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/334986_huaff8fc9583ce0db0f8ddfe6febb1eacb_3410995_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Daybreak"
	 />

<p><em>Cooperatively decarbonize the planet and create resilient societies.</em></p>
<p>What a topical game between all those anthropomorphic animals! <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a> combines a bold theme with interesting gameplay – and again has a much better title in German.</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame321608-stylefont-variant-small-capshegemony-lead-your-class-to-victorya">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/321608" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hegemony: Lead Your Class to Victory</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 90–180 minutes, 14+ years, medium heavy (4.2), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/321608_hu68142336b589dd8316f3bb5f44c5d850_539898_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Hegemony: Lead Your Class to Victory"
	 />

<p><em>Simulate a whole contemporary nation in this asymmetric, politico-economic euro-game.</em></p>
<p>At least for me, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/321608" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hegemony</a> shot out of nowhere into the BGG top 100. Quite heavy overall, but a place on the longlist is always possible.</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame322289-stylefont-variant-small-capsdarwins-journeya">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/322289" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Darwin&rsquo;s Journey</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 14+ years, medium heavy (3.9), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/322289_huc94e3f887015dceec8790bfd84def2f4_3837583_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Darwin&#39;s Journey"
	 />

<p><em>Retrace Darwin’s journey to the Galapagos in a worker-placement adventure.</em></p>
<h1 id="my-two-cents">My two cents</h1>
<p>It&rsquo;s time for my picks for the nominations. As indicated in the introduction, I think the algorithm has done a pretty good at predicting the longlist, which means there&rsquo;s lots of strong contenders. Let&rsquo;s go with these predictions for the nominations:</p>
<h2 id="my-predictions-for-nominees-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2024span">My predictions for nominees for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330592" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Phantom Ink</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/396542" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Same Game</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/383458" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sides</a></li>
</ul>
<p>The grognards will go crazy if there&rsquo;s three party games on the shortlist, but those are just the most approachable kind of games.</p>
<h2 id="my-predictions-for-nominees-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2024span">My predictions for nominees for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/334986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Daybreak</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/391163" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Forest Shuffle</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a></li>
</ul>
<p>To be honest, I&rsquo;d see <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/373106" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sky Team</a> rather on the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red list</strong></em></span>, but I&rsquo;ll stick with the categorisation of the algorithm here.</p>
<h1 id="honourable-mentions">Honourable mentions</h1>
<p>Finally, I always like to sneak in a few more games that I think have a good shot at the longlist, even though the algorithm didn&rsquo;t place them in the top 10.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/389102" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Bier Pioniere</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/393888" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Passt nicht!</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/234260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Prey Another Day</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>This year is set to be one that lives from its breadth rather than its depth. I&rsquo;d say the race is pretty open in both awards, much more so than in previous years. While this makes my job as a predictor harder, as a board game fan I&rsquo;m looking forward to the surprises that the jury will have in store for us.</p>
<p>With every passing year, I also get more and more excited about the picks for <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> – so far all their recommendations were hits with my kids, and I can&rsquo;t wait to see what&rsquo;s the latest hotness in children&rsquo;s games.</p>
<p>Stay tuned for the announcement on June 11th! 🤩</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>As every year, it&rsquo;s not straightforward to determine what games are eligible for the awards. Generally speaking, it&rsquo;d be those games release between April 2023 and March 2024 into German retail. Hence, filtering by BGG release year will exclude games that were released earlier elsewhere, but only recently in Germany, and likewise let some games pass that have not seen a German release in that time window. I did my best to catch what I could, but there&rsquo;s always some that get away.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Game Designer Hall of Fame</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/game-designer-hall-of-fame/</link>
<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2024 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/game-designer-hall-of-fame/</guid>
<description><p><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2024</strong></em></span> nominations are just around the corner (watch this space for our <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2024-predictions/">annual predictions</a>), but I wanted to take this opportunity for a look back over the history of the award. Specifically, I wanted to see which designers have been most successful at the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>, <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> awards.</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/game-designer-hall-of-fame/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The first <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red meeple</strong></em></span> was given out in 1979. Since 1989, the jury also awarded the <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> for children&rsquo;s games, initially as an annual special award, and from 2001 as its own award with the <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>blue meeple</strong></em></span>. (In what follows I count those special awards as regular <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners.) Finally, in 2011, the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> was introduced for (slightly) more complex games with an <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>anthracite meeple</strong></em></span>, again following a couple of special awards with a clearly similar intent, but less steady, so they just stand as special awards on their own in the statistics.</p>
<h2 id="games">Games</h2>
<p>Overall, the jury included 831 games on its various longlist across the three categories over its 45 year history, with (naturally) 45 <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>, 35 <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span> and 13 <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> This is the overall number of games:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:center">Award</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Winner</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Nominated</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Recommended</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Special award</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">45</td>
<td style="text-align:center">109</td>
<td style="text-align:center">482</td>
<td style="text-align:center">11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">13</td>
<td style="text-align:center">39</td>
<td style="text-align:center">76</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">35</td>
<td style="text-align:center">95</td>
<td style="text-align:center">260</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>A quick word about the data: As usual, I rely on BoardGameGeek (BGG) for data about the games and their designers. If a game is not in the database or if the designer entry is wrong, the statistics here will necessarily be wrong too. I&rsquo;ve collected data about the different <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> awards manually over the years, so that&rsquo;s another potential source of errors. If you&rsquo;re reading this from the future, I should point out that the statistics here should be complete up to and including <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>.</p>
<p>The current format of having a longlist (which become the recommendations), out of which three games are selected for the shortlist (which are the nominated games), out of which one game will be given the award, has been in place since 2011 with the introduction of the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Formats have varied throughout the decades and I&rsquo;ve tried to map them to the current situation as much as possible.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;ve already mentioned that the first 12 <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners were really special awards. There was another special award given during the first 18 years between 1979 and 1997 for &ldquo;beautiful games&rdquo;. Since this article is meant to focus on designers, not artists, it felt like those games clutter the statistics somewhat, so I treated them as recommendations rather than special award winners.</p>
<p>So without further ado, let&rsquo;s take a look at the designers.</p>
<h2 id="designers">Designers</h2>
<p>Over the course of 45 sessions, the jury has mentioned games by 566 different designers. By far the most successful designer is <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a> who has won <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> five times (four of those were co-designs) and <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> once between 1986 and 2000. During that time period, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=11">Klaus Teuber</a> won <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> four times, so during those 15 years Wolfgang &amp; Klaus shared 11 awards between them. The record for most games on the longlists is held by <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a> with 36 games, which makes it even more surprising that he has &ldquo;only&rdquo; won two awards: one each of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> – both in 2008 (and both largely forgotten today, unlike his other timeless designs).</p>
<p>Overall, 94 designers have won at least one award (111 if we include special awards), with 21 of them winning more than one (22 including special awards). Only 8 of those have won their awards in more than one category: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6940">Inka</a> &amp; <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6941">Markus Brand</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=24">Alex Randolph</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=1727">Bruno Cathala</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=9714">Antoine Bauza</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=10067">Steffen Bogen</a>. To this date, no designer has won in all three categories.</p>
<p>Looking at the shortlists (including winners), the jury nominated 217 different designers over the years. Of those, only 22 have been nominated in more than one category and just 4 designers can claim the distinction of being nominated in all three categories: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=9714">Antoine Bauza</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=381">Rüdiger Dorn</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=80162">Wolfgang Warsch</a>.</p>
<p>As mentioned earlier, the jury has recommended games by 566 different designers, with 68 of them appearing in more than one category and 9 in all three. In addition to the 4 mentioned above, those are <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6940">Inka</a> &amp; <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6941">Markus Brand</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=1727">Bruno Cathala</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=285">Roberto Fraga</a>.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;ll leave you with some more detailed statistics below. I hope you enjoy those and they help you bridge the time until the nominations are announced on June 11th. 🤩</p>
<h2 id="designer-records">Designer records</h2>
<h3 id="overall">Overall</h3>
<ul>
<li>Most games on the longlist: 36
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist: 13
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most wins: 6
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist without win: 5
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=272">Jürgen P. Grunau</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>Most games on the longlist: 25
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist: 9
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most wins: 5
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist without win: 5
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=381">Rüdiger Dorn</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>Most games on the longlist: 4
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=11767">Alexander Pfister</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=4958">Stefan Feld</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=35418">Simone Luciani</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist: 3
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=4958">Stefan Feld</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most wins: 2
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6940">Inka Brand</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6941">Markus Brand</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=8397">Andreas Pelikan</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=11767">Alexander Pfister</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist without win: 3
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=4958">Stefan Feld</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-009fe3-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-000-1px--1px-0-000--1px-1px-0-000-1px-1px-0-000kinderspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>Most games on the longlist: 13
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=645">Kai Haferkamp</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist: 5
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=256">Heinz Meister</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most wins (incl special award): 3
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=79463">Marie Fort</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=79462">Wilfried Fort</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most wins (main award): 2
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=24">Alex Randolph</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=79463">Marie Fort</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=79462">Wilfried Fort</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=256">Heinz Meister</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=500">Manfred Ludwig</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=267">Klaus Zoch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=1783">Peter-Paul Joopen</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Most games on the shortlist without win: 3
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=272">Jürgen P. Grunau</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="designers-in-different-categories">Designers in different categories</h2>
<h3 id="longlist-incl-shortlist-and-winners">Longlist (incl shortlist and winners)</h3>
<ul>
<li>9 designers appear in all 3 categories</li>
<li>68 designers appear in at least 2 categories</li>
<li>566 designers appear in at least 1 category</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="shortlist-incl-winners">Shortlist (incl winners)</h3>
<ul>
<li>4 designers appear in all 3 categories</li>
<li>22 designers appear in at least 2 categories</li>
<li>217 designers appear in at least 1 category</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="winners">Winners</h3>
<ul>
<li>0 designers appear in all 3 categories</li>
<li>8 designers appear in at least 2 categories</li>
<li>94 designers appear in at least 1 category (111 incl special awards)</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="winners-per-category">Winners per category</h2>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan-1"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>342 designers had a game on the longlist</li>
<li>105 designers had a game on the shortlist</li>
<li>58 designers won the award (incl special awards)</li>
<li>48 designers won the main award</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan-1"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>95 designers had a game on the longlist</li>
<li>52 designers had a game on the shortlist</li>
<li>20 designers won the award (incl special awards)</li>
<li>14 designers won the main award</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-009fe3-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-000-1px--1px-0-000--1px-1px-0-000-1px-1px-0-000kinderspiel-des-jahresspan-1"><span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>206 designers had a game on the longlist</li>
<li>86 designers had a game on the shortlist</li>
<li>41 designers won the award (incl special awards)</li>
<li>40 designers won the main award</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspielspan--span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> &amp; <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>22 designers had a game on both longlists</li>
<li>9 designers had a game on both shortlists</li>
<li>1 designer won both main awards</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspielspan--span-stylecolor-009fe3-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-000-1px--1px-0-000--1px-1px-0-000-1px-1px-0-000kinderspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> &amp; <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>55 designers had a game on both longlists</li>
<li>15 designers had a game on both shortlists</li>
<li>5 designers won both main awards</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspielspan--span-stylecolor-009fe3-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-000-1px--1px-0-000--1px-1px-0-000-1px-1px-0-000kinderspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> &amp; <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>9 designers had a game on both longlists</li>
<li>6 designers had a game on both shortlists</li>
<li>2 designers won both main awards</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspielspan-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspielspan--span-stylecolor-009fe3-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-000-1px--1px-0-000--1px-1px-0-000-1px-1px-0-000kinderspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>, <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> &amp; <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h3>
<ul>
<li>9 designers had a game on all longlists</li>
<li>4 designers had a game on all shortlists</li>
<li>0 designers won all main awards</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="designer-hall-of-fame">Designer Hall of Fame</h2>
<p>This table includes designers with at least 2 wins or 5 nominations across all categories. Each entry shows the number of wins / nominations / recommendations for that designer in each category. Special awards are added in parentheses.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Designer</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Spiel</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Kennerspiel</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Kinderspiel</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Total</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=7">Wolfgang Kramer</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">5 / 4 / 12</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 2 / 3</td>
<td style="text-align:center">28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=11">Klaus Teuber</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">4 / 0 / 3</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=42">Michael Kiesling</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">3 / 3 / 4</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 2 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6940">Inka Brand</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 2 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=6941">Markus Brand</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 2 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=24">Alex Randolph</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 13</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Reiner Knizia</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 (1) / 6 / 17</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 4 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=79463">Marie Fort</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 (1) / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=79462">Wilfried Fort</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 (1) / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=1727">Bruno Cathala</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 (1) / 0 / 7</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=256">Heinz Meister</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 3 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=9">Alan R. Moon</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 2 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=500">Manfred Ludwig</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 2 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=9714">Antoine Bauza</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=117">Andreas Seyfarth</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 1 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=267">Klaus Zoch</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=8397">Andreas Pelikan</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=11767">Alexander Pfister</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 0 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=10067">Steffen Bogen</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=1783">Peter-Paul Joopen</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=10525">Donald X. Vaccarino</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=789">Vlaada Chvátil</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 (1) / 0 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=381">Rüdiger Dorn</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 5 / 3</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=80162">Wolfgang Warsch</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 2 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=645">Kai Haferkamp</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 3 / 9</td>
<td style="text-align:center">13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=4884">Marco Teubner</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 3 / 6</td>
<td style="text-align:center">11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=1288">Jens-Peter Schliemann</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 2 / 3</td>
<td style="text-align:center">8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=285">Roberto Fraga</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 2 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=129">Bernhard Weber</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 1 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=86">Michael Schacht</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 8</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=4">Sid Sackson</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 7</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=154">Rudi Hoffmann</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 6</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=173">Günter Burkhardt</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=60">Dirk Henn</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1 / 0 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=378">Matt Leacock</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 3 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 (1) / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=10">Uwe Rosenberg</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 (1) / 1 / 4</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=272">Jürgen P. Grunau</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 2 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 3 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=13">Stefan Dorra</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 2 / 6</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=4958">Stefan Feld</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 3 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=138">Leo Colovini</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 2 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=3990">Wolfgang Dirscherl</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 2 / 4</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=12">Reinhard Staupe</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 7</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 2</td>
<td style="text-align:center">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=141">Friedemann Friese</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 1 / 3</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=94">Reinhold Wittig</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 10</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 1</td>
<td style="text-align:center">11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=244">Kris Burm</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 6</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=365">Roland Siegers</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 6</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=1210">Haim Shafir</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 6</td>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=144">Jacques Zeimet</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0 / 0 / 0</td>
<td style="text-align:center">5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Download the full results here: <a href="designers.csv">designers</a> and <a href="games.csv">games</a>. As always, you can find the code for this analysis from <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog/-/tree/master/experiments/sdj_designers">GitLab</a>.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Arguably, there&rsquo;s 15 <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners: In 2017, the jury gave the award to the first three games in the Exit series. In all statistics, I only count them as a single entry. Similarly, in 2019, the first three entries of the Sherlock series got recommended, which I also count as just a single game.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>A brief introduction to Collaborative Filtering</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/collaborative-filtering/</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 09 May 2024 21:47:57 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/collaborative-filtering/</guid>
<description><h2 id="what-is-a-good-recommendation">What is a good recommendation?</h2>
<p>Collaborative filtering is the workhorse powering the recommendations by Recommend.Games. Over the years, I&rsquo;ve been asked every now and then how it works. So, I thought it&rsquo;s high time I outlined the basic ideas behind our recommendation engine.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s first take a step back and talk about recommendations in general. What is it we&rsquo;re trying to achieve? The answer to this question is far from trivial, and it gets harder when you want to formalise its goals. Maybe a somewhat naïve approach would be to say that we want to recommend items that the user will like. But recommendations are as much about predicting what the user wants as what they didn&rsquo;t even know they wanted. Sometimes the most &ldquo;correct&rdquo; answer is also the least useful: maybe our #1 recommendation is <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266192" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wingspan</a> and the user indeed would love to play it - but if they already knew about it, why recommend it in the first place?</p>
<p>To be honest, the solution that powers Recommend.Games pretty much ignores all those questions and asks a much simpler question: given the games a user has rated, can we predict how they would rate all the other games? We can then take the highest predicted ratings and use those to recommend games to the user.</p>
<h2 id="the-intuition-behind-collaborative-filtering">The intuition behind collaborative filtering</h2>
<p>Let&rsquo;s make this a little more concrete and assume we only have six users we&rsquo;ll call A through F. They&rsquo;ve left the following ratings:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">A</th>
<th style="text-align:center">B</th>
<th style="text-align:center">C</th>
<th style="text-align:center">D</th>
<th style="text-align:center">E</th>
<th style="text-align:center">F</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266192" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wingspan</a></strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>10</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>3</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>7</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a></strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>8</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>5</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>2</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a></strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>9</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>10</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>8</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a></strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>7</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>5</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><strong>6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><em>?</em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Our task is to find a model to fill in the blanks. How would we go about this? The basic idea behind collaborative filtering is to find users with similar tastes and use their ratings to predict the missing ones. Let&rsquo;s take a closer look at users <strong>C</strong> and <strong>E</strong>. They both seem to agree fairly well on their ratings for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a>, so it&rsquo;s a fair guess that user <strong>E</strong> would rate <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266192" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wingspan</a> similar to user <strong>C</strong>. But we can also make this argument &ldquo;in the other direction&rdquo;: users seem to rate <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a> in general similarly, so one game&rsquo;s ratings should be a good predictor for the other&rsquo;s. So since users <strong>F</strong> seems to dislike <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a>, it&rsquo;s a fair assumption that they would also dislike <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a>.</p>
<h2 id="matrix-factorisation-via-alternating-least-squares">Matrix factorisation via alternating least squares</h2>
<p>That&rsquo;s the high level idea behind collaborative filtering – but how do we actually implement it? If you know your Machine Learning 101, you might be familiar with linear regression, which tries to find a &ldquo;line of best fit&rdquo; for a set of given data points. We can think of collaborative filtering as linear regression in two directions: if we fix the games and try to predict the users&rsquo; ratings, we&rsquo;re doing linear regression in the user space. If we fix the users and try to predict the games&rsquo; ratings, we&rsquo;re doing linear regression in the game space. Collaborative filtering tries to do both at the same time – by alternating between the two, which is why this method is known as <em>alternating least squares</em> (ALS, &ldquo;least squares&rdquo; referring to minimising the squared error).</p>
<p>After running the algorithm, we end up with one vector for each user and one for each game. Taking the inner product (sometimes referred to as dot product) of those vectors yields a single number, the predicted rating. If we stack all the vectors for the users into a matrix \(U\) and the vectors for the games into a matrix \(G\), we can multiply those two matrices to get a matrix \(R\) of predicted ratings:</p>
<p>\[
R = U^\top \cdot G.
\]</p>
<p>In other words: we&rsquo;ve taken the matrix of ratings from the table above and factored it into two matrices. So another way of thinking about collaborative filtering is as a matrix factorisation problem: we&rsquo;re trying to find two matrices that, when multiplied together, approximate the original matrix as closely as possible.</p>
<h2 id="latent-factors-and-embeddings">Latent factors and embeddings</h2>
<p>Those user and game vectors are also known as <em>latent factors</em>. That&rsquo;s because they take the high-dimensional space of users and games and project it into a lower-dimensional space. While those latent dimensions don&rsquo;t carry any particular human interpretable meaning, they capture the essence of what makes a user like a game. For example, one latent factor might capture how much a user likes games with a lot of player interaction, while another might capture how much they like games with a lot of strategic depth. Note that we can freely choose the number of latent factors, which is an important hyperparameter of the model. The more latent factors we use, the more expressive the model can be – but it also becomes more prone to overfitting. Recommend.Games uses 32 latent dimensions, which is a decent default choice for many recommendation problems.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>The latent factors also have some interesting properties. For example, there&rsquo;s a meaningful distance between them: if two users are close together in the latent space, they have similar tastes. The distance in question is the cosine similarity, which measures the angle between two vectors. Think of it this way: if the vectors for two users point in the same direction (cosine similarity close to 1), they have similar tastes. If they point in opposite directions (cosine similarity close to -1), they have opposite tastes. If they&rsquo;re orthogonal (cosine similarity close to 0), they have no correlation.</p>
<p>The same goes for the game vectors: we can calculate the cosine similarity between two games to see if they appeal to the same users. Every game page on Recommend.Games has a &ldquo;You might also like&rdquo; section at the bottom. Those are the games with the highest cosine similarity to the game in question.</p>
<p>Vector representations with some measure of distance are called <em>embeddings</em>. So this is yet another way of thinking about collaborative filtering: we&rsquo;re embedding users and games into a latent space where we can measure their similarity.</p>
<p>So, this was a pretty lengthy and technical article, but I hope it provides some intuition of how the recommendation engine behind Recommend.Games works. Obviously, there are a lot more details to it, but those are the most important ideas. One of the reasons why I wanted to talk about this topic is that we can have more fun with those latent factors, so stay tuned for more articles on this topic!</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The number of latent dimensions also affects the size of the model. As mentioned, we have one latent vector for every user and every game, each with 32 entries. Currently, we have over 500 thousand users and over 90 thousand games, so the matrix \(U\) has over \(500\,000 \cdot 32 = 16\,000\,000\) entries and the matrix \(G\) has over \(90\,000 \cdot 32 = 2\,880\,000\) entries. Each entry is a 64-bit (8 bytes) floating point number, so the total size of the model is around \((16\,000\,000 + 2\,880\,000) \cdot 8\,\text{B} \approx 150\,\text{MB}\). It&rsquo;s not a negligible size to load into the memory of a cheap server (which is what we&rsquo;re using), but in the modern age of deep neural networks with gazillions of parameters, it feels almost tiny.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>The world of board games</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/world-of-board-games/</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 25 Apr 2024 23:02:24 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/world-of-board-games/</guid>
<description><script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-3.4.1.min.js" ></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-widgets-3.4.1.min.js" ></script>
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<p>BoardGameGeek (BGG) users can select their country of residence in their profile. The main purpose is to find other users in your region to play face to face or maybe trade games, but but over here at <a href="https://recommend.games/#/">Recommend.Games</a> we obviously cannot help ourselves but to use this information for some interesting statistics. 🤓</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s start with the usual disclaimer: We will have to rely on whatever information BGG provides. In particular, users can freely choose their country. As mentioned, this is meant to be the country of residence, but some users might rather choose their country of origin – or some outright nonsense. There are 19 BGG users who claim to be from 🇦🇶 Antarctica, for example. While I&rsquo;m sure that the long polar nights on lonely research stations are perfect for playing board games, I&rsquo;m not sure if they have a lot of time to rate them on BGG. 🐧 (If they actually did, Antarctica would have 6,880 ratings per 100 thousand residents, which would make them the second biggest board game enthusiasts in the world – only behind the 🇻🇦 Vatican&rsquo;s 6 reported users, resulting in almost 20,000 ratings per 100 thousand residents. 🙏)</p>
<p>On a more serious note, what exactly is a country is a <em>very</em> political question and frequently highly controversial. I&rsquo;m trying to stick with the sovereign nations recognized by the United Nations and️ add users from subdivisions and autonomous regions to the parent country. BGG allows users to choose 🏴 England, 🏴 Scotland or 🏴 Wales as their residence (not Northern Ireland though 🤔) – but for now, they&rsquo;re all stuck together in a 🇬🇧 United Kingdom, if they like it or not. The borders in the map that follows shortly are even more contentious – I just had to stick with what the provider chose, and they emphasised the actual situation on the ground.</p>
<p>With that out of the way, let&rsquo;s look at some basic statistics. For this analysis, we used <strong>19.8 million ratings</strong> by <strong>347 thousand users</strong> who selected one of the <strong>199 countries</strong> as their residence. Close to <strong>88 thousand games</strong> received at least one rating.</p>
<p>In order to understand how board game preferences differ around the globe, we want to calculate a ranking similar to the way BGG ranks games. Remember that BGG calculates their &ldquo;<a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">geek score</a>&rdquo; based on a Bayesian average by adding a number of dummy ratings of 5.5 to each game. That <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/">number of dummy ratings</a> is determined by the total number of ratings divided by 10,000. We can apply exactly the same logic to calculate a ranking by country. Since we want to apply at least one dummy rating to each game, we only consider countries with at least 10,000 ratings in total – <strong>62 countries</strong> meet this criterion. BGG ranks games with at least 30 ratings. If we applied the same rule to the country rankings, we would often have very short lists. So, I decided to include games with at least 3 times the number of dummy ratings in the country ranking, but never more than the BGG standard of 30.</p>
<p>Enough of the boring technicalities, on to the fun part! 😎 Let&rsquo;s first answer some basic questions: How many users from that country? How many ratings have the entered? How many ratings per capita? And maybe most interestingly: What is their favourite game? Here&rsquo;s a quick overview over the 10 largest communities on BGG:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Country</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Population</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Users</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Ratings</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Per 100k residents</th>
<th style="text-align:left">#1 rated game</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇺🇸 United States</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">331.9 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">131.7k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7,724k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">2,327</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇩🇪 Germany</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">83.2 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">19.0k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,457k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,751</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇨🇦 Canada</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">38.2 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">23.4k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,390k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">3,636</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇬🇧 United Kingdom</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">67.3 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">24.3k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,300k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,931</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇪🇸 Spain</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">47.4 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">16.0k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">913k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,926</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇵🇱 Poland</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">37.7 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">11.8k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">620k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,644</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/187645" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Star Wars: Rebellion</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇮🇹 Italy</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">59.1 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">9.1k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">550k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">930</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/182028" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇫🇷 France</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">67.7 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">10.6k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">529k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">782</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇳🇱 Netherlands</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">17.5 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.5k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">469k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">2,680</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><strong>🇦🇺 Australia</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">25.7 mil</td>
<td style="text-align:right">9.2k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">468k</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,824</td>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>We see lots of familiar names amongst the highest rated games. The 62 country rankings have 26 different games in the top spot. These nine games are favourites in more than one country:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Game</th>
<th>Count</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a></td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a></td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a></td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a></td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/233078" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition</a></td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167791" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terraforming Mars</a></td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/115746" style="font-variant: small-caps;">War of the Ring: Second Edition</a></td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/187645" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Star Wars: Rebellion</a></td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion</a></td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>This looks almost identical to the BGG top 10 list – only <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a> is missing, though it is 🇦🇷 Argentina&rsquo;s favourite game. Overall, the country rankings are dominated by international hits, but there are a couple of local favourites with a strong tie to the country, such as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/188" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Go</a> in 🇨🇳 China and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/368789" style="font-variant: small-caps;">AFU: Armed Forces of Ukraine</a> in 🇺🇦 Ukraine.</p>
<p>Explore more details about the different countries in this interactive map:</p>
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</div>
<p>As much fun as it is to browse the map, there&rsquo;s also the blank spaces staring in our faces: Africa and South Asia, together representing over 40% of the world&rsquo;s population, are almost completely missing from the international board gaming community. 🌍 Obviously, BGG being an American website only available in English means their data really only represents the Anglo-American gaming world, but still, it&rsquo;s notable how Latin America and other parts of Asia are present much stronger on BGG. I think some focus and effort needs to go into closing those gaps on the world map. 🕊️</p>
<p>I couldn&rsquo;t possibly leave you without circling back to the question of what country is the most enthusiastic about board games. We&rsquo;ve already mentioned the statistical anomalities that are the 🇻🇦 Vatican and 🇦🇶 Antarctica, but if we only consider the 62 countries with their own rankings, which of those has the most ratings per capita? Here&rsquo;s the top 5:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>🇫🇮 Finland</strong> (4953 per 100k residents)</li>
<li><strong>🇮🇸 Iceland</strong> (4932 per 100k residents)</li>
<li><strong>🇨🇦 Canada</strong> (3636 per 100k residents)</li>
<li><strong>🇧🇪 Belgium</strong> (3575 per 100k residents)</li>
<li><strong>🇸🇪 Sweden</strong> (3337 per 100k residents)</li>
</ol>
<p>Those who were looking for the reason why my chosen home is the <a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20080027">happiest country in the world</a>, you&rsquo;ve finally got the answers: we seem to play more board games than anyone else! (<em>Torille! 🇫🇮</em>) In general, the Nordic countries sure hit the sweet spot here, with their highly educated populations (well versed in English) and strong emphasis on work–life balance. Also, you gotta have something to do during those long, dark winter nights. 🌌</p>
<p>Finally, if you&rsquo;re interested in the full country overview, you can find it <a href="countries.csv">here</a>. Browse the full rankings for each country here:</p>
<p><a href="rankings/ar.csv">🇦🇷 Argentina</a> | <a href="rankings/au.csv">🇦🇺 Australia</a> | <a href="rankings/at.csv">🇦🇹 Austria</a> | <a href="rankings/by.csv">🇧🇾 Belarus</a> | <a href="rankings/be.csv">🇧🇪 Belgium</a> | <a href="rankings/br.csv">🇧🇷 Brazil</a> | <a href="rankings/bg.csv">🇧🇬 Bulgaria</a> | <a href="rankings/ca.csv">🇨🇦 Canada</a> | <a href="rankings/cl.csv">🇨🇱 Chile</a> | <a href="rankings/cn.csv">🇨🇳 China</a> | <a href="rankings/co.csv">🇨🇴 Colombia</a> | <a href="rankings/cr.csv">🇨🇷 Costa Rica</a> | <a href="rankings/hr.csv">🇭🇷 Croatia</a> | <a href="rankings/cz.csv">🇨🇿 Czechia</a> | <a href="rankings/dk.csv">🇩🇰 Denmark</a> | <a href="rankings/ee.csv">🇪🇪 Estonia</a> | <a href="rankings/fi.csv">🇫🇮 Finland</a> | <a href="rankings/fr.csv">🇫🇷 France</a> | <a href="rankings/de.csv">🇩🇪 Germany</a> | <a href="rankings/gr.csv">🇬🇷 Greece</a> | <a href="rankings/hk.csv">🇭🇰 Hong Kong</a> | <a href="rankings/hu.csv">🇭🇺 Hungary</a> | <a href="rankings/is.csv">🇮🇸 Iceland</a> | <a href="rankings/in.csv">🇮🇳 India</a> | <a href="rankings/id.csv">🇮🇩 Indonesia</a> | <a href="rankings/ir.csv">🇮🇷 Iran</a> | <a href="rankings/ie.csv">🇮🇪 Ireland</a> | <a href="rankings/il.csv">🇮🇱 Israel</a> | <a href="rankings/it.csv">🇮🇹 Italy</a> | <a href="rankings/jp.csv">🇯🇵 Japan</a> | <a href="rankings/lv.csv">🇱🇻 Latvia</a> | <a href="rankings/lt.csv">🇱🇹 Lithuania</a> | <a href="rankings/lu.csv">🇱🇺 Luxembourg</a> | <a href="rankings/my.csv">🇲🇾 Malaysia</a> | <a href="rankings/mx.csv">🇲🇽 Mexico</a> | <a href="rankings/nl.csv">🇳🇱 Netherlands</a> | <a href="rankings/nz.csv">🇳🇿 New Zealand</a> | <a href="rankings/no.csv">🇳🇴 Norway</a> | <a href="rankings/pe.csv">🇵🇪 Peru</a> | <a href="rankings/ph.csv">🇵🇭 Philippines</a> | <a href="rankings/pl.csv">🇵🇱 Poland</a> | <a href="rankings/pt.csv">🇵🇹 Portugal</a> | <a href="rankings/ro.csv">🇷🇴 Romania</a> | <a href="rankings/ru.csv">🇷🇺 Russia</a> | <a href="rankings/rs.csv">🇷🇸 Serbia</a> | <a href="rankings/sg.csv">🇸🇬 Singapore</a> | <a href="rankings/sk.csv">🇸🇰 Slovakia</a> | <a href="rankings/si.csv">🇸🇮 Slovenia</a> | <a href="rankings/za.csv">🇿🇦 South Africa</a> | <a href="rankings/kr.csv">🇰🇷 South Korea</a> | <a href="rankings/es.csv">🇪🇸 Spain</a> | <a href="rankings/se.csv">🇸🇪 Sweden</a> | <a href="rankings/ch.csv">🇨🇭 Switzerland</a> | <a href="rankings/tw.csv">🇹🇼 Taiwan</a> | <a href="rankings/th.csv">🇹🇭 Thailand</a> | <a href="rankings/tr.csv">🇹🇷 Türkiye</a> | <a href="rankings/ua.csv">🇺🇦 Ukraine</a> | <a href="rankings/ae.csv">🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates</a> | <a href="rankings/gb.csv">🇬🇧 United Kingdom</a> | <a href="rankings/us.csv">🇺🇸 United States</a> | <a href="rankings/uy.csv">🇺🇾 Uruguay</a> | <a href="rankings/vn.csv">🇻🇳 Vietnam</a></p>
<p><em>PS: As always, the complete code for this analysis can be found from <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog/-/tree/master/experiments/rankings_by_country">GitLab</a>.</em></p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Has board game rating inequality increased over the years?</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 14 Apr 2024 18:20:45 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/</guid>
<description><h2 id="the-number-of-ratings-per-game">The number of ratings per game</h2>
<p>Perhaps one of the most controversial choices of the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/">Shut Up &amp; Sit Down Effect</a> article was using the number of ratings<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> on BoardGameGeek (BGG) as proxy for &ldquo;attention&rdquo; to a game. So let&rsquo;s double down on that! 😈</p>
<p>If lots of ratings mean a lots of eyes on a game, we can ask questions like: What games get most of the attention? Do few games steal the spotlight? Or is the attention spread out evenly?</p>
<p>The answer is pretty clear if we sort the games by their number of ratings and plot them from fewest to most:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/num_ratings.svg"
	alt="The distribution of the number of ratings on BoardGameGeek, from fewest to most ratings per game"
	 />

<p>Note that in this plot and everything that follows, I only include ranked games, i.e., games with at least 30 ratings. This is partially for convenience (we have excellent <a href="https://github.com/beefsack/bgg-ranking-historicals">historical ranking data</a> going back to 2016), but also because the BGG database is full of obscure games with very limited distribution and audience.</p>
<p>With that out of the way, what do we see in the plot? It&rsquo;s clear that the vast majority of games have very few ratings, while a handful of games have a ton of ratings. This is a classic example of a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_tail">long-tailed distribution</a>, where most of the data is concentrated in the &ldquo;tail&rdquo; of the distribution.</p>
<p>Fun fact: there are three absolute classic games that have been competing for the distinction of most-rated game on BGG for years now. As of the time of writing, the current standings are:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a>: 126,448 ratings</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/822" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Carcassonne</a>: 125,850 ratings</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic</a>: 124,584 ratings</li>
</ol>
<p>So, obviously the attention of the board game world is concentrated on <em>very</em> few games. The 26,168 ranked games share a total of 24,353,222 ratings<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> between them. The top 1%, the 262 games with the most ratings, account for 35.5% of those ratings. Conversely, the bottom 23.2%, the 6,071 games with the fewest ratings, account for only 1% of the ratings.</p>
<p>Can we somehow quantify this inequality more precisely? Why yes, I&rsquo;m glad you asked! 🧐</p>
<h2 id="the-gini-coefficient">The Gini coefficient</h2>
<p>Enter the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient">Gini coefficient</a>. This measure is commonly used to quantify income inequality, but it can be applied to any distribution of values. In our case, we can use it to measure the inequality in the distribution of ratings on BGG.</p>
<p>For this, we dive deeper into the question: What share of all ratings do the top X% of games have? This is the cumulative distribution of ratings, and it looks like this:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/gini_coefficient.svg"
	alt="The share of the total ratings and the Gini coefficient of BoardGameGeek ratings"
	 />

<p>The thin 45° line is the (hypothetical) perfectly equal distribution, where every game has exactly the same number of ratings; the thick curve is the actual cumulative distribution of ratings. The area between the two lines is (essentially<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup>) the Gini coefficient, which – as you can see – is <strong>0.836</strong> in our case. A perfectly equal distribution of ratings (every game has the same number of ratings) would have a Gini coefficient of 0, while a perfectly unequal distribution (one game would have <em>all</em> the ratings, whilst all others have none) would have a Gini coefficient of 1. So 0.836 is really high, meaning a <em>very</em> unequal distribution of ratings. This shouldn&rsquo;t come as a surprise to anyone following the glut of new games coming out every year, with only a few of them getting the lion&rsquo;s share of attention, whilst most of the rest languish in obscurity. Has this phenomenon changed over the years though? 🤔</p>
<h2 id="historical-perspective">Historical perspective</h2>
<p>To answer that question, we can look at how the Gini coefficient has changed over time. Here&rsquo;s how it has evolved since late 2016:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/gini_coefficient_over_time.svg"
	alt="The Gini coefficient of BoardGameGeek ratings over time"
	 />

<p>So, we started out this period with a little over 0.8 and have been steadily creeping up to over 0.835 today. This increase of inequality on a very high level is an interesting observation – and somewhat worrying. For comparison: The most unequal country in the world is considered to be South Africa 🇿🇦, with a Gini coefficient of 0.63. The US 🇺🇸 has a Gini coefficient of 0.40, Finland 🇫🇮 0.27 and Slovakia 🇸🇰 0.23, the lowest value in the world.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Obviously, those values don&rsquo;t compare directly, but they serve as a reminder of just how unequal the baseline in 2016 was, and the situation has intensified since then. So, why is that? One obvious factor is the number of new games being released each year. Let&rsquo;s take a look at this plot:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/rating-inequality-gini-coefficient/games_per_year.svg"
	alt="The number of games released each year between 1990 and 2022"
	 />

<p>So, there&rsquo;s a lot to unpack here. Start from the bars in the background: they count the number of games released each year from 1990 to 2022. Just look at the explosive growth from 2013 through 2019 in particular – that&rsquo;s probably the influence of crowdfunding. The abrupt drop in 2020 is, of course, due to COVID–19. Interestingly, the number of releases haven&rsquo;t picked up since and 2019 remains the record year.</p>
<p>The dots are the Gini coefficient just for that cohort, i.e., those dots measure how unequal the ratings are distributed among the games released in that year. The higher up a dot is, the more a year is dominated by a few games – or just a single one. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a>, the most rated game on BGG (see above), single-handedly makes the 1995 cohort the most unequal year in the dataset. The sizes of the dots represent the most popular game of that year, so 1995, 2000 and 2008 get the biggest dots. Unsurprisingly, games with an uber-popular game (big dot) tend to have a higher Gini coefficient (high up on the y-axis).</p>
<p>But there&rsquo;s something else going on: whilst the number of releases have been skyrocketing since 2013, the Gini coefficients of the years since 2016 have been falling noticibly, indicating less concentration of the ratings on just a few games. Games released in 2022 form the first cohort with a Gini coefficient below 0.75 since the 90s.</p>
<p>So how come that rating inequality is still rising? This might have to do with publishers&rsquo; increased focus on evergreens – flagship titles and lines that have proven to be consistently popular. Most publishers will rather release new expansions for and versions of a successful game than take a risk on a new one. So while new releases get slightly more evenly distributed attention, much of the overall attention (and marketing budget) is still drawn to select few games. Publishers and designers certainly complain that it&rsquo;s increasingly harder for new games to get noticed and even get a second printrun, and the data seems to support those complaints.</p>
<p>Maybe it&rsquo;s worth pausing for a moment to consider if this inequality is actually bad – or if it could even be a good thing. One should remember that the easiest way (arguably the only one) to achieve perfect equality is by assigning everyone the exact same value: zero. Put another way: while the <em>share</em> of attention captured by the top games of the hobby has increased, this doesn&rsquo;t necessarily mean this attention has been taken away from the rest of the games.️ Overall, interest in modern games has been growing, so even the long tail of games should receive more attention overall when measured in absolute terms. A rising tide lifts all boats, at least that&rsquo;s what those on the steering wheels tell those toiling in the engine rooms. 🚢</p>
<p>You might deduce that I don&rsquo;t fully buy into this narrative. The continuing increase of the Gini coefficient, the focus on blockbuster title, the ongoing consolidation of the hobby board game publishers (although Asmodee has noticably slowed down after <a href="https://www.dicebreaker.com/companies/asmodee/news/asmodee-embracer-earnings-2023-saudi-arabia-deal">their owners got too greedy</a>) – all of these are signs of a Marvelisation of the board game industry. ️Have we reached the end of this industry being run by boutique publishers? Will it all be nature kitsch, anthropomorphic animals or billion dollar licenses from here on out? I have no doubt that quirky and sometimes downright weird games will continue to be made, some of which will tackle difficult topics or push the boundaries of what a game can be. But I&rsquo;m afraid those will be more and more pushed to the fringes of the hobby, while the mainstream will be dominated by the same old, same old.</p>
<p><em>PS: I was inspired to write this article by Bluesky user <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/slngshot-dvnngrod.bsky.social/post/3knwg4sgd2k2g">Nick Sherefkin</a>. If you have some insteresting questions about board games and data, why don&rsquo;t you reach out to me on one of the channels linked below? Maybe I&rsquo;ll answer them in the next blog post.</em></p>
<p><em>PPS: As always, the complete code for this analysis can be found from <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog/-/tree/master/experiments/gini">GitLab</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Addendum 2024-04-25</em>: Just a week after publishing this article, Asmodee&rsquo;s (former) owners <a href="https://boardgamewire.com/index.php/2024/04/22/asmodees-owner-loads-it-up-with-e900m-debt-amid-plan-to-spin-off-board-game-giant/">Embracer Group announced</a> that they are spinning off Asmodee into its own publically traded company, offloading Embracer&rsquo;s debt of €900m onto the board game giant. For years, Asmodee mostly cared about growth, but now that they&rsquo;re burdened with 4 to 5 years worth of profits in debt, they will have to focus on profitability instead. Expect them to squeeze as much as possible out of their most valuable IPs, leaving even less room for new and innovative games. 💸</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>It&rsquo;s worth emphasising that the SU&amp;SD Effect article didn&rsquo;t just use the number of ratings, but the number of collection items, which also include owned games, wishlists and more. This article strictly focuses on the number of ratings.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Remember that the number dummy ratings added to <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">calculate the geek score</a>, which is used for the BGG rankings, is pegged to the total number of ratings. Since there&rsquo;s one dummy rating for every 10,000 ratings, the current number of dummy ratings is somewhere around 2435. When we <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/">last checked in</a> around three years ago, that number was around 1729 dummies. Quite the growth indeed.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The Gini coefficient is actually twice the area between the two lines. The line of equality cuts the unit square in half, so the area of perfect inequality would be 0.5. For the coefficient to be between 0 and 1, we double that area to get the final value.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality">List of countries by income equality</a>&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Measuring the Shut Up & Sit Down effect</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 17 Mar 2024 21:37:46 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/</guid>
<description><h2 id="shut-up--sit-down">Shut Up &amp; Sit Down</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.shutupandsitdown.com/">Shut Up &amp; Sit Down</a> (SU&amp;SD) is arguably the largest (at over 400k subscribers) and most influential <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@shutupandsitdown">YouTube channel</a> in board gaming. A video with a glowing recommendation by them can lead to a game sell out overnight. Or at least that&rsquo;s how the anecdotes go. There&rsquo;s been <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/ngqoow/i_tried_to_quantify_the_shut_up_sit_down_effect/">previous attempts</a> at quantifying the effect, but over here at <a href="https://recommend.games/#/">Recommend.Games</a> is where board games and data science meet, so obviously, we have to dig a little deeper.</p>
<h2 id="john-company">John Company</h2>
<p>Their recent<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> review of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> is an interesting case study:</p>

<div style="position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden;">
 <iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ykrqCX2_mhU" style="position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; border:0;" allowfullscreen title="YouTube Video"></iframe>
</div>

<p>The game was by no means a hidden gem before: designer Cole Wehrle has two games in the BoardGameGeek (BGG) top 50 with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/237182" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Root</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/256960" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pax Pamir</a>, the latter being released by his own publishing house <a href="https://wehrlegig.com/">Wehrlegig Games</a> as well. So it&rsquo;s fair to say that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> already had a lot of eyes on it. Still, when we look at the number of ratings<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> on BGG, it&rsquo;s hard to deny the apparent increase in the slope after the video was released:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/332686_ratings.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of John Company before and after the SU&amp;SD review"
	 />

<p>One might simply draw a line through the number of ratings before the video and extrapolate it to the present, then call the difference to the actual number of ratings the &ldquo;Shut Up &amp; Sit Down effect&rdquo;. But if you&rsquo;re reading this blog, your mind is probably of the kind that immediately goes: &ldquo;Hang on, how do we know the increase is actually because of SU&amp;SD and not because of some other unrelated reason?&rdquo; The problem is that we don&rsquo;t have a &ldquo;control world&rdquo;: one that has never been exposed to the video, but is otherwise identical to ours. These kinds of counterfactual questions are what keeps business analysts up at night (luckily that&rsquo;s not me, so writing blog posts like this one keeps me up instead 😅).</p>
<p>So how can we know that it really was the SU&amp;SD video that drew the extra attention to the game and not, for instance, just the fact that we approached Christmas and people were just buying, playing and rating more games? 🤔</p>
<h2 id="synthetic-control">Synthetic Control</h2>
<p>Enter <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_control_method">synthetic control</a>. As said, we don&rsquo;t have a control world that wasn&rsquo;t exposed to the video – so instead we synthesise one! At first, this might sound more like alchemy than science, but the basic idea is really quite simple: we look at the number of ratings up to the day of the video and compare those to other, similar games over the time period. A weighted sum of those games&rsquo; ratings then gives us a &ldquo;synthetic&rdquo; version of the game which closely approximates the number of ratings up to the video. Because <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> got the SU&amp;SD treatment, but the other games didn&rsquo;t, we can reason that the same weighting of the other games&rsquo; ratings after the video should give us a good estimate of what would have happened to <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> if it hadn&rsquo;t been for the video.</p>
<p>Concretely, we&rsquo;ll look at all the games on BGG and sample 300 of them that are most similar to <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> in terms of the number of ratings before the video. We then try to find a convex combination (i.e., the weights need to sum to 1) of these games that best approximates the number of ratings of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> before the video. If this all sounds like gibberish, don&rsquo;t worry, just take my word for it that the algorithm<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup> spits out this model:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Synthetic <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> =</strong><br>
+30.7% * <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/356033" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest</a><br>
+20.9% * <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/362986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tribes of the Wind</a><br>
+18.3% * <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/340041" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kingdomino Origins</a><br>
+12.3% * <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/383206" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Freelancers: A Crossroads Game</a><br>
+8.2% * <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332772" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Revive</a><br>
+5.5% * <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/315767" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers Heroes</a><br>
+4.2% * <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318182" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Imperium: Legends</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>It&rsquo;s worth stressing one thing: during training, the model only gets to see the number of ratings up to the review date. The idea is that the weighted sum of the ratings of those games are a &ldquo;synthetic&rdquo; version of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a>. Since those games did not receive the SU&amp;SD treatment, this synthetic gives a glimpse into a world where that video was never made. Without further ado, this is what the fake ratings look like compared to the real ones:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/332686_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of John Company before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p>So, it looks as though our synthetic <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> would have continued to steadily gather attention, just without that bump in the days after the video&rsquo;s release. In the 60 days after the video, our synthetic <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> received 498 new ratings, while the real one got 662. So it looks like the <strong>SU&amp;SD effect added about 164 ratings</strong> to the game, which is <strong>roughly a quarter</strong> of all new ratings in that period.</p>
<p>Another way to visualise this effect is plotting the difference between the real and the synthetic <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a>:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/332686_susd_effect.svg"
	alt="Difference between the number of ratings of John Company and the synthetic control before and after the SU&amp;SD review: the SU&amp;SD effect"
	 />

<p>Because the synthetic version is meant to approximate the number of ratings of the real numbers until the review is published, the line dances around 0 on the left hand side. Right after the review, we see a steep incline for about a week, which then flattens out. This is the SU&amp;SD effect in action.</p>
<p>You might still not be quite convinced that this is an isolated effect for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a>. How do we know that other games didn&rsquo;t see a similar, if not bigger effect? Is this observation in any way significant? One way to approach an answer is called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher's_exact_test">Fisher&rsquo;s exact test</a>. Applied to our situation, we can simply pretend that other games got the same treatment and see if a similar synthetic control model shows the same effect. In practice, we sample around 120 games with a similar number of ratings as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a>, calculate the same synthetic control model for each of them, and then compare the difference between the real and synthetic number of ratings after the review. A picture is worth a thousand words, so let&rsquo;s look at the result plot:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/332686_susd_effect_fisher.svg"
	alt="Fisher&#39;s exact test of the SU&amp;SD effect for John Company"
	 />

<p>The strong line is the same as the one in the previous plot, but the faint lines are the differences for the other games. Again, all the lines on the left meander around 0, as expected, while they stray to different positive or negative values after the review. That kind of spread is typical for random observations without actual underlying cause. It&rsquo;s clear that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> really received an exceptional amount of attention after the SU&amp;SD review.</p>
<p>The absolute numbers might not sound impressive for a video with over 300'000 views, but keep in mind that only a fraction of board game enthusiasts are active on BGG. Further, in an industry where a couple of thousand copies sold is considered a success, a couple of hundred additional ratings is nothing to sneeze at. Of course, whether this kind of activity on BGG translates to actual sales is a different question entirely.</p>
<h2 id="what-about-the-other-videos">What about the other videos?</h2>
<p>Obviously, this was just one video and one game. Can we see a similar effect in other games that SU&amp;SD has covered? Let&rsquo;s check the same plot for some other videos.</p>
<h3 id="noticeable-increase-">Noticeable increase 📈</h3>
<p>Most games covered by SU&amp;SD will see a clearly visible uplift in interest, such as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330592" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Phantom Ink</a>. The model predicted interest to somewhat fizzle out, but the video introduced more players to the game:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/330592_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Phantom Ink before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p>The <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/351538" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Bamboo</a> review produced a clear bump in interest, which then continued rather in parallel of the synthetic version after a couple of days:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/351538_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Bamboo before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p>Coverage of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/276086" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hamlet</a> clearly led to a similar bump right after the review, but interest continue to rise afterwards:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/276086_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Hamlet before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<h3 id="supercharged-">Supercharged 🚀</h3>
<p>Some games, in particular hidden gems, really thrive under the spotlight SU&amp;SD shines on them. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/311031" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Five Three Five</a> is one such example. Over 70% of the new ratings after the review can be attributed to its review:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/311031_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Five Three Five before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p>The number for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/331571" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My Gold Mine</a> is even close to 90%. This game was recommended by the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/">Spiel des Jahres</a> jury, so hardly unknown, but clearly it needed SU&amp;SD to introduce it to the English speaking world:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/331571_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of My Gold Mine before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/367771" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Stomp the Plank</a> is a children&rsquo;s game, a genre the BGG crowd generally ignores. Consequently, there was a steep incline in interest right after the review was published. It&rsquo;s interesting though that the model predicts a significant increase even without the video, so the SU&amp;SD effect here is &ldquo;only&rdquo; about 33%:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/367771_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Stomp the Plank before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<h3 id="no-or-negative-effect-">No (or negative) effect 🫤</h3>
<p>Interest in a game doesn&rsquo;t skyrocket in all cases after a SU&amp;SD video, sometimes it seems to make hardly a difference – and some coverage might actually harm a game, even though SU&amp;SD rarely releases truely negative reviews.</p>
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/298383" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Golem</a>&rsquo;s reception was definitely rather lackluster, and consequently ratings have gone up a little, but not dramatically:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/298383_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Golem before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/354568" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Amun-Re</a> (another <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/high-society/">Knizia classic</a>) saw a bit of a typical SU&amp;SD bump, but by end of the 60 day period we examined here, the effect had completely evaporated:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/354568_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Amun-Re before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p>SU&amp;SD&rsquo;s video about <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295770" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Frosthaven</a> might have actually harmed that game…? 🤷 The site has been a vocal fan of the series, so the more plausible explanation for declining interest is probably rather saturation:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/susd-effect/295770_synthetic_control.svg"
	alt="Number of ratings of Frosthaven before and after the SU&amp;SD review, compared to the synthetic control"
	 />

<p>There&rsquo;s a saying in data science: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong">all models are wrong</a>, but some are useful. While synthetic control is a powerful tool that provides interesting insights in some cases, it might also be misleading in other cases. Always interpret with caution. 🧐</p>
<h3 id="full-results">Full results</h3>
<p>Here&rsquo;s an overview over most of the videos SU&amp;SD has released in 2023 and the impact they had on the games they covered:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Review date</th>
<th style="text-align:right">SU&amp;SD effect</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Plot</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-11-28</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+24.6%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="332686_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330592" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Phantom Ink</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-10-26</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+43.5%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="330592_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/368061" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Zoo Vadis</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-10-19</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+64.9%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="368061_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/358386" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Moon</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-10-12</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+69.2%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="358386_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/351538" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Bamboo</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-10-05</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+50.3%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="351538_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350184" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Earth</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-09-28</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>-19.0%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="350184_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/354568" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Amun-Re</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-09-22</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+1.7%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="354568_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/11" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Bohnanza</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-09-14</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+20.9%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="11_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/311031" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Five Three Five</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-08-23</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+71.6%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="311031_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/298383" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Golem</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-08-17</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+12.8%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="298383_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/331571" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My Gold Mine</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-07-19</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+89.6%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="331571_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/367771" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Stomp the Plank</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-07-06</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+33.2%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="367771_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/177478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">IKI</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-06-29</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+32.5%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="177478_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/362944" style="font-variant: small-caps;">War of the Ring: The Card Game</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-06-15</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+25.4%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="362944_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/281549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Beast</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-06-09</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>-18.6%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="281549_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/276086" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hamlet</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-05-25</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+66.8%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="276086_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/267609" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Guards of Atlantis II</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-05-18</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+52.7%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="267609_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295770" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Frosthaven</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-05-11</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>-30.4%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="295770_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350205" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Horseless Carriage</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-02-09</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+35.2%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="350205_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/811" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Rummikub</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2023-01-26</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>-6.1%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="811_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/366013" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Heat: Pedal to the Metal</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2022-12-22</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>+19.1%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:center"><a href="366013_synthetic_control.svg">[link]</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Even more detailed results can be found <a href="results.json">here</a>.</p>
<h2 id="conclusion-the-shut-up--sit-down-effect-is-real">Conclusion: the Shut Up &amp; Sit Down effect is real</h2>
<p>According to synthetic control, in the weeks after a SU&amp;SD video is published, 20% to 60% of the new ratings can be attributed to that review, in extreme cases up to 90%. In other words, <strong>for some games interest increases tenfold</strong>. It&rsquo;s hard to deny, SU&amp;SD exercises a great deal of influence over the hobby – and finally we got some numbers to back up the anecdotes. They&rsquo;ve worked for over a decade on sharing the love for board games with a broader audience, and it&rsquo;s clear that they&rsquo;ve been successful in doing so.</p>
<p>As powerful as this method is, let&rsquo;s not forget some caveats: First off, we cannot exclude the possibility of some other &ldquo;intervention&rdquo; that might have caused the increase in interest. Maybe the video conincided with a crowdfunding campaign or some other &ldquo;influencer&rdquo; mentioning the game on their feed. We did our best to work out that some significant &ldquo;treatment&rdquo; happened on the day of the review, but we can&rsquo;t be sure it&rsquo;s SU&amp;SD.</p>
<p>Second, let&rsquo;s not forget not all interest is good interest. We considered the number of new ratings, but we didn&rsquo;t at all take into account if they were <em>positive</em> ratings. A review might well be devastating, which leads to large number of interest being detected by this method, but it&rsquo;d probably be unwanted attention and actually harm sales. Our model wouldn&rsquo;t know the difference.</p>
<p>The review of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/332686" style="font-variant: small-caps;">John Company</a> is actually a good example of this complexity: the video was by no means just a glowing &ldquo;must buy&rdquo; hype fest, but rather a 48 minute video essay full of nuiances that probably contained as many praises for the design as caveats why this game might not be for everyone – or in fact for most people. (If you, for some reason, spent your time reading this article but haven&rsquo;t watched the video it&rsquo;s about, do yourself a favour and watch it now. It&rsquo;s really excellent.) So much of the activity on BGG following the review might well have been &ldquo;thanks, but not for me&rdquo; – it&rsquo;s hard to tell.</p>
<p>Still, after spending a lot of time looking at the data, I&rsquo;m convinced that the SU&amp;SD effect is real. And it&rsquo;s a good thing, too: the hobby needs more people to play and enjoy games, and SU&amp;SD is doing a great job at that. 🎲</p>
<h2 id="postscriptum-the-technical-details">Postscriptum: the technical details</h2>
<p>I&rsquo;ve cut a great deal of details about the data and the method from this article as I wanted to focus on the outcome and not get bogged down in how we got there. If you want to learn more about synthetic control, I highly recommend the <a href="https://matheusfacure.github.io/python-causality-handbook/15-Synthetic-Control.html">corresponding chapter</a> of <a href="https://matheusfacure.github.io/python-causality-handbook/index.html">Causal Inference for the Brave and True</a>, which directly inspired the method and plots of this article. If the book can&rsquo;t convince you of synthetic control, maybe the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/10/30/how-to-measure-things-in-a-world-of-competing-claims/">Washington Post</a> can.</p>
<p>If you want to verify the model and run the code yourself, as always you can find the complete code from <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog/-/tree/master/experiments/synthetic_control">GitLab</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, let me conclude by saying that I&rsquo;ve spent a lot of time on this article (probably much more than I should have 😅), so I hope you enjoyed it and learned something interesting. I know I did. 🤓 If you did too, please consider sharing it with your friends, on social media or wherever the cool kids hang out these days. It&rsquo;s a great way to support the blog and help it grow. 🙏</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I&rsquo;ve been working on this article for a very long time, OK? When I started writing it, the video was pretty recent. 😅&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Those numbers are actually the number of all &ldquo;collection items&rdquo; on BGG, which include ratings, owned and pre-ordered games, wishlists, logged plays and more. For the sake of simplicity, I just refer to &ldquo;ratings&rdquo; throughout. This number is obviously just a coarse proxy for interest (positive or negative), but at least it&rsquo;s a number we can measure and have readily available thanks to the scraping I do for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/">Recommend.Games</a>. Also note that the values are somewhat approximate since I don&rsquo;t have all the freshest data at all times. Approximations upon approximations to synthesise a counterfactual world – but it&rsquo;s the best we&rsquo;ve got. 🤷&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p><a href="https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/optimize.minimize-slsqp.html">Sequential Least Squares Programming</a> (SLSQP). I&rsquo;m glad you asked. 🤓&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>How long is a game of High Society?</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/high-society/</link>
<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2024 22:37:01 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/high-society/</guid>
<description><p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/220" style="font-variant: small-caps;">High Society</a> is a classic bidding game by classic designer <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=2">Dr Reiner Knizia</a>, most recently released by <a href="https://www.ospreypublishing.com/uk/osprey-games/">Osprey Games</a> with a wonderfully classic look:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/high-society/high_society_cover_hu9e59c812d2d89cfb564078a094de22cd_579104_600x0_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cover of High Society"
	 />

<p>The general concept is quite simple: the players are members of said &ldquo;high society&rdquo; and are trying to outdo each other in showing off their wealth. The game is played over a series of rounds, and in each round, a card is revealed from a deck of 16 cards. The players then take turns bidding on the card, and the player who wins the bid gets the card. The cards are worth points, and the player with the most points at the end of the game wins.</p>
<p>Here&rsquo;s the twist though: The player with the least money at the end of the game is disqualified (that poor bastard can no longer be accepted as a member of this exclusive club!), so the players are trying to get the most points while also keeping enough money to stay in the game. This provides agonising decisions every turn – as well as a biting satire of the upper class.</p>
<p>One interesting detail is the way the game ends. There&rsquo;s a total of 16 cards to be autioned off in the deck; 4 of these cards have a dark background. As soon as the 4th dark card is revealed, the game ends immediately. (That last card isn&rsquo;t sold anymore.) This looming end adds extra tension to the game as players need to take gambles towards the end of the game and try to guess how many more chances they&rsquo;ll get to bid.</p>
<p>This is where the maths comes in. While the strategy is way too deep to be easily analysed (and involves some interesting meta in pricing the cards), modelling the game length is pretty straightforward and we&rsquo;ll do so in a couple of different ways. We&rsquo;ll start with a simple simulation to understand what&rsquo;s going on. Then we&rsquo;ll develop exact formulae, which will culminate in meeting your new best friend: the negative hypergeometric distribution.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s settle one important convention first though: In everything that follows, I&rsquo;ll only count the cards that are actually auctioned off. The last card is never auctioned off, so it doesn&rsquo;t count towards the game length. This means that the shortest possible game is 3 rounds long: this happens if all 4 dark cards are on top of the deck (very unlikely). The longest possible game on the other hand is 15 rounds long: this happens if the card at the bottom of the deck is dark and hence the 15 cards above it will be autioned off (actually pretty likely, as we shall see).</p>
<h2 id="simulation">Simulation</h2>
<p>It&rsquo;s really simple to simulate this situation. Just create a bunch of (virtual) decks of 16 cards each, colour 4 of them dark, then shuffle them. Now we just need to count where in each of the decks the 4th dark card is. If our sample was big enough, this gives us a really good approximation of the distribution of game lengths.</p>
<p>If you know a little bit of Python and the ubiquitous <code>numpy</code> library, you can do this in just a few lines of code, so I thought I&rsquo;d walk you through it. If you don&rsquo;t care about coding, just skip ahead to the results. (Be warned that formulae are coming up next though, so the code might be the relaxing bit.)</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" style="color:#f8f8f2;background-color:#272822;-moz-tab-size:4;-o-tab-size:4;tab-size:4;"><code class="language-python" data-lang="python"><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#f92672">import</span> numpy <span style="color:#66d9ef">as</span> np
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Set up the parameters</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>num_cards <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> <span style="color:#ae81ff">16</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>num_dark <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> <span style="color:#ae81ff">4</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>num_games <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> <span style="color:#ae81ff">1_000_000</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>rng <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> np<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>random<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>default_rng(seed<span style="color:#f92672">=</span><span style="color:#ae81ff">13</span>)
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Create the decks: num_games rows, num_cards columns</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>games <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> np<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>zeros((num_games, num_cards), dtype<span style="color:#f92672">=</span>bool)
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Colour the last four columns in each row dark</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>games[:, :num_dark] <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> <span style="color:#66d9ef">True</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Shuffle each row individually</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>games <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> rng<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>permuted(games, axis<span style="color:#f92672">=</span><span style="color:#ae81ff">1</span>, out<span style="color:#f92672">=</span>games)
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Count the game lengths: in each row,</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># sum the number of dark cards revealed so far.</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Every column where this cumulative sum is</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># less than the number of dark cards is a round of the game.</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>game_lengths <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> np<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>sum(np<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>cumsum(games, axis<span style="color:#f92672">=</span><span style="color:#ae81ff">1</span>) <span style="color:#f92672">&lt;</span> num_dark, axis<span style="color:#f92672">=</span><span style="color:#ae81ff">1</span>)
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Mean and standard deviation of the game lengths</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>print(game_lengths<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>mean(), game_lengths<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>std())
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#75715e"># Histogram the game lengths</span>
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>unique_lengths, length_counts <span style="color:#f92672">=</span> np<span style="color:#f92672">.</span>unique(game_lengths, return_counts<span style="color:#f92672">=</span><span style="color:#66d9ef">True</span>)
</span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span>print(dict(zip(unique_lengths, length_counts <span style="color:#f92672">/</span> num_games)))
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Don&rsquo;t worry if you can&rsquo;t follow the code immediately, I&rsquo;ll admit to playing a bit of code golf there. The important part are the results anyways, which should look something like this: the mean game length is <strong>12.6 rounds</strong> with a <strong>standard deviation of 2.3</strong>. This is the full distribution of game lengths:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:right">Length</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Probability</th>
<th></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Length</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Probability</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">3</td>
<td style="text-align:right">0.1%</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align:right">10</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">4</td>
<td style="text-align:right">0.2%</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align:right">11</td>
<td style="text-align:right">9.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">5</td>
<td style="text-align:right">0.5%</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align:right">12</td>
<td style="text-align:right">12.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">6</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1.1%</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align:right">13</td>
<td style="text-align:right">15.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">7</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1.9%</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align:right">14</td>
<td style="text-align:right">20.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">8</td>
<td style="text-align:right">3.1%</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align:right">15</td>
<td style="text-align:right">25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">4.6%</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align:right"></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>If you prefer the visual representation, here&rsquo;s a histogram of the game lengths:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/high-society/game_lengths.svg"
	alt="Histogram of game lengths"
	 />

<p>As promised, very short games are extremely rare, whilst long games are in fact the most common. This isn&rsquo;t necessarily what I would have expected when starting to think about this problem. I think there&rsquo;s a pretty good intuition for why this is the case, but it&rsquo;s instructive to examine the distribution from a more theoretic point of view first.</p>
<h2 id="hypergeometric-distribution">Hypergeometric distribution</h2>
<p>If you&rsquo;ve done your statistics 101, you&rsquo;ve indubitably come across questions about poker hands. E.g., how likely is it to get a flush when drawing 5 cards out of a standard deck of 52? The answer to this question can be calculated using the hypergeometric distribution. If you find the name intimidating, wait till you see the formula:</p>
<p>\[ p_\text{HG}(N, K, n; k) = \frac{{K \choose k} {N - K \choose n - k}}{{N \choose n}}. \]</p>
<p>So let&rsquo;s take this step by step. Applied to our situation, we have a total of \(N = 16\) cards, \(K = 4\) of which are &ldquo;successes&rdquo;, i.e., the dark ones. In the standard application of the hypergeometric distribution, we&rsquo;d draw a fixed number of \(n\) cards and want to know the probability that exactly \(k\) of them are dark. Our problem however is a little different: we need to fix \(k = 4\) dark cards to be drawn and want to know the probability that this happens within the first \(n\) draws. This is <em>almost</em> what we want – it describes the probability that the game lasts <em>less</em> than \(n\) rounds. Let \(X\) be the random variable that describes the game length. Then what we just said can be expressed as</p>
<p>\[ P(X \lt n) = p_\text{HG}(16, 4, n; 4) = \frac{{4 \choose 4} {16 - 4 \choose n - 4}}{{16 \choose n}} = \frac{{12 \choose n - 4}}{{16 \choose n}}. \]</p>
<p>Now, it&rsquo;s easy to recover the probability is that the game lasts <em>exactly</em> \(n\) rounds:</p>
<p>\[ P(X = n) = P(X \lt n + 1) - P(X \lt n) = \frac{{12 \choose n - 3}}{{16 \choose n + 1}} - \frac{{12 \choose n - 4}}{{16 \choose n}}, \]</p>
<p>where \(n \ge 4\) to make sure the binomial coefficients are defined (I&rsquo;ll leave \(P(X = 3)\) as an exercise to the reader). If you&rsquo;re bored, you can flex your algebraic muscles and simplify this expression:</p>
<p>\[ P(X = n) = \frac{12! \cdot n! \cdot 4}{(n - 3)! \cdot 16!}. \]</p>
<p>This is a nice closed form, but it&rsquo;s <em>a)</em> tedious to calculate as those factorials really do blow up and <em>b)</em> not particularly insightful. Can we do better?</p>
<h2 id="pedestrian-but-insightful-formula">Pedestrian, but insightful formula</h2>
<p>Did you notice above how \(P(X = 15) = 25\%\) is such a nice round number? Maybe it&rsquo;s worth calculating this value in yet another way. So, what does it mean for the game to go over the full length? It means that the very last card has to be a dark one. What&rsquo;s the probability of this happening? Well, 4 out of 16 cards are dark, so there&rsquo;s a 1 in 4 chance of the last card being dark.</p>
<p>Similarly, we can check why \(P(X = 14) = 20\%\). This means the penultimate card will have to be the 4th dark card, i.e., the last card has to be light. In other words,</p>
<p>\[ P(X = 14) = \frac{12}{16} \cdot \frac{4}{15} = \frac{1}{5} = 20\%. \]</p>
<p>Once I started to examine this pattern, a lightbulb went on in my head. We need to flip the deck over! 💡 Now, we&rsquo;re no longer asking where the 4th dark card is in the pile, but rather how many light cards are in a row at the bottom of it. This is pretty straightforward to write down, e.g., for the next probability in line:</p>
<p>\[ P(X = 13) = \frac{12}{16} \cdot \frac{11}{15} \cdot \frac{4}{14} = \frac{11}{70} \approx 15.7\%. \]</p>
<p>And in general:</p>
<p>\[ P(X = n) = \frac{4}{n+1} \cdot \prod_{k=n-2}^{12} \frac{k}{k+4}. \]</p>
<p>Again, if you feel bored, you can express this product in terms of the same factorials as above. But the big advantage of this formulation is that it&rsquo;s pretty transparent what&rsquo;s going on.</p>
<!-- TODO: Let's carry out those algebraic steps. -->
<p>So, are we finally done? Not quite, there&rsquo;s still another way of arriving at the same result, which is a bit more elegant and general.</p>
<h2 id="negative-hypergeometric-distribution">Negative hypergeometric distribution</h2>
<p>When playing with the hypergeometric distribution above, you might&rsquo;ve stumbled across an important question we&rsquo;ve ignored: is this even a proper distribution, i.e., do all those values sum up to 1? Those \(p_\text{HG}(N, K, n; k)\) assume you fix some parameters \(N\) (the number of cards), \(K\) (the number of dark cards), and \(n\) (the number of draws) and then run through all permissible values of \(k\) (the number of dark cards drawn). Summing \(p_\text{HG}(N, K, n; k)\) over all \(k\) for fixed parameters is guaranteed to give 1, but we&rsquo;ve instead kept \(k\) fixed at 4 (i.e., draw all dark cards) and ranged \(n\) over all possible number of draws. Hasn&rsquo;t someone already figured out the details of this distribution?</p>
<p>Of course they have – this is called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_hypergeometric_distribution">negative hypergeometric distribution</a>. Whilst the hypergeometric distribution counts the number of successes in a fixed number of draws, the negative hypergeometric distribution counts the number of successes until a fixed number of failures occur. Translated to our problem, it&rsquo;ll count how many light cards are drawn before the 4th dark card is drawn. Again, this is <em>almost</em> what we want – the game length will be the number of light cards drawn plus 3 for the first dark cards, which will be auctioned off as well.</p>
<p>The probability mass function of the negative hypergeometric distribution is given by</p>
<p>\[ p_\text{NHG}(N, K, r; k) = \frac{{k + r - 1 \choose k} {N - r - k \choose K - k}}{N \choose K}, \]</p>
<p>where \(N = 16\) is the total number of cards, \(K = 12\) is the number of <em>light</em> cards amongst them, \(r = 4\) is the number of dark cards (which will end the experiment / game), and \(k\) is the number of light cards drawn. Again, let \(X\) be the random variable that describes the game length. Then the probability that the game lasts \(n\) rounds is</p>
<p>\[ P(X = n) = p_\text{NHG}(16, 12, 4; n - 3) = \frac{{n - 3 + 4 - 1 \choose n - 3} {16 - 4 - n + 3 \choose 12 - n + 3}}{16 \choose 12} = \frac{{n \choose n - 3}}{16 \choose 12}, \]</p>
<p>which we can further simplify to</p>
<p>\[ P(X = n) = \frac{n!}{(n-3)! \cdot 3!} \cdot \frac{12! \cdot 4!}{16!} = \frac{12! \cdot n! \cdot 4}{(n - 3)! \cdot 16!}, \]</p>
<p>so thankfully, this checks out. 😌</p>
<p>Now, you might think it&rsquo;s quite redundant to derive the same result over and over, but I find it immensely satisfying to obtain the same formula in 3 different ways – and have them verified by simulation. Probability theory can be very tricky and plausible calculations can go wrong in unexpected ways. This article could&rsquo;ve just been a single paragraph if we had immediately given away the answer with the negative hypergeometric distribution, but I honestly wouldn&rsquo;t have trusted the results just like that.</p>
<!-- TODO: What's the intuition behind long games? -->
<p>One final question remains: Did Reiner Knizia crunch the numbers when he designed the game? I can&rsquo;t tell for sure, but he does hold a PhD in mathematics, so he would certainly have carefully considered the impact of the game length on the balance and gaming experience. When it comes to the &ldquo;fun&rdquo; in games, theory doesn&rsquo;t matter and play testing is king, but calculations like these will provide a shortcut in the design process. Simulations are usually the fastest and most robust way to model a game, but calculations can lead you down really fun rabbit holes – I speak from experience… 🐇</p>
<p><em>PS</em>: You can find the code for the simulation etc <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog/-/tree/master/experiments/high_society">here</a>.</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Child's play: How hard is Orchard?</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/</link>
<pubDate>Wed, 24 Jan 2024 21:42:58 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/</guid>
<description><p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/5770" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Orchard</a> is a beloved children&rsquo;s game classic which is so old – it&rsquo;s as old as myself. 👴 As one might expect from a children&rsquo;s game, it&rsquo;s really simple: roll a die, pick a fruit of the corresponding color, and put it in the basket. If you roll the raven, the raven moves one step closer to the orchard. If you manage to pick all the fruit before the raven reaches the orchard, you win together. If the raven reaches the orchard first, you lose.</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/orchard_cover_huecd9ec0d293c1cf1fe0ce58b00ca2553_181332_600x0_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cover of Orchard"
	 />

<p>It&rsquo;s really quite charming and the fruits make great toys. Kids learn to wait for their turns, to recognise colours and maybe even to accept when they lose. But one thing the game does not teach is making smart decisions: on most turns, the die roll completely determines your action. One die face shows a basket which allows you to pick any fruit you want, but you probably already figured out what&rsquo;s the dominant strategy: select the fruit we have the most left of. So really, the game offers no meaningful decisions at all.</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/orchard_detail_hufeed133767ebd7912eff5df4bd2af11a_266861_600x0_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Detail shot of Orchard"
	 />

<p>What makes for a pretty dull game (by adult standards, of course) actually makes for an excellent playground for simulations! The lack of choices means that the probability of winning is completely determined by die rolls, not skills, and hence can be objectively measured. So if you ever wondered how hard it is to beat the raven in that game from your childhood, you&rsquo;re in for a treat! 🤓</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/orchard_in_orchard_hudb548f1e7d2e3afd6ae16d4765dfa0a1_785660_600x0_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Orchard in an orchard"
	 />

<p>In order to determine the win rate, we can just simulate a series of die rolls and check if their outcome means we win or lose the game. Repeat this process thousands of times and we get a pretty good estimate of the win rate. So without further ado, here&rsquo;s the win rate for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/5770" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Orchard</a>:</p>
<p>It&rsquo;s <strong>68.3%</strong>. You&rsquo;re going to win just over two thirds of your games of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/5770" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Orchard</a>.</p>
<p>Is this particularly high or low? It&rsquo;s actually a really tough challenge in game design to calibrate the win rate of a co-operative game. If you ask people how often they should win a co-operative game for it to be interesting and challenging, they might say something like 50–50, but in reality people simply don&rsquo;t like losing and would probably be frustrated to play a game where they lose half the time. With that in mind, a game the children will lose 32% of the time seems like a desaster in the making. 😅</p>
<p>A by-product of the simulation is that we can also look at the distribution of game lengths. Here&rsquo;s a histogram of the lengths of games of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/5770" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Orchard</a>:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/game_length_original.svg"
	alt="Histogram over the lengths of games of Orchard"
	 />

<p>So the average game last for about 40 rounds, with a standard deviation of about 5.4, i.e., quite a lot of spread. The shortest possible game would be losing after rolling 9 ravens in a row – the probability of that is \( 6^{-9} \approx 0.00001\% \) or 1 in 10 million games. The shortest possible win would mean rolling the basket 20 times in a row (basket rolls allow you to pick two fruits at once) – which happens in 1 in 3,656,158,440,062,976 games. In theory, the game could go on forever if you keep rolling fruits you&rsquo;ve already emptied, but honestly, already 40 die rolls without any decisions feels long enough for my taste – in particular when you have to watch a toddler at the same time. 👶</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/first_orchard_cover_hu8c86d820db0f3c708709ba252911b277_470501_600x0_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cover of First Orchard"
	 />

<p>Luckily, there&rsquo;s a version for even smaller children called <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/41302" style="font-variant: small-caps;">First Orchard</a>. Mechanically, it&rsquo;s almost equivalent except for a few hyperparameter: there&rsquo;s only 4 of each fruit instead of 10, you only get to pick one fruit on a basket roll and you lose the game after 6 raven rolls,<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> but that&rsquo;s it. How do these changes affect the win rate?</p>
<p>The answer is <strong>76.8%</strong>. Expect to win 3 out of 4 games of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/41302" style="font-variant: small-caps;">First Orchard</a>.</p>
<p>When playing with toddlers who rarely have the emotional maturity to handle losing, this seems like a much better win rate. Reducing the number of fruits also cuts the game length in half, much more accomodating for the attention span of a toddler:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/game_length_first.svg"
	alt="Histogram over the lengths of games of First Orchard"
	 />

<p>Obviously, the win rate will be affected by chosing any of those parameters, but the length of the raven path would probably be the easiest lever to pull if we wanted to make <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/41302" style="font-variant: small-caps;">First Orchard</a> as hard as its big sibling. Here&rsquo;s the win rate for different lengths of the raven path:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/win_rates_first.svg"
	alt="Win rates for First Orchard with different lengths of the raven path"
	 />

<p>Reducing the path by just one step drops the win rate to 63%, i.e., even below that of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/5770" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Orchard</a>, another step reducting would lower it below 50%. For the sake of the peace in our household, I&rsquo;m glad they&rsquo;ve found the space in the box for the extra steps. 😅</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/orchard/first_orchard_detail_hu378dbc7f42c10156c9592c0e7737f9fd_819988_600x0_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Detail shot of First Orchard"
	 />

<p>I&rsquo;ll leave you with one final thought: as an obsessive data collector, I have logged 68 games of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/41302" style="font-variant: small-caps;">First Orchard</a>, 47 of which we&rsquo;ve won, i.e., we have a win rate of 69.1%. Our sample isn&rsquo;t big enough for this difference to be significant (or is it? I&rsquo;m not going to crunch the numbers now 🤷), but anyways there&rsquo;s plenty of factors that influence our win rate IRL: my children will rather pick their favourite colour when given a choice than follow the optimal strategy, there was an extra apple in our box (and children emphatically cannot stand leftover components – publishers, take note and stop putting variants in children&rsquo;s games 😉), their die rolling is far from random, etc. Also, I don&rsquo;t think we ever really lost a game of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/41302" style="font-variant: small-caps;">First Orchard</a>: when the raven reaches the orchard, my older daughter will just say that the raven flies off to its nest. 🐦⬛ Toddlers… 🤷</p>
<p><em>PS</em>: You can find the code for the simulations <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog/-/tree/master/experiments/orchard">here</a>.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The raven path in <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/41302" style="font-variant: small-caps;">First Orchard</a> actually has 5 steps, but you start off path and lose when the raven steps off the path into the orchard, i.e., after 6 raven rolls.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Recommend.Games is back!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-is-back/</link>
<pubDate>Sat, 23 Sep 2023 19:17:14 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-is-back/</guid>
<description><p>The <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/announcement-hiatus/">hiatus</a> is over! Already since April 2023 the recommendation engine at Recommend.Games has been back online, albeit with reduced functionality. In order to cut down serving costs, I made the recommendation model much more lightweight (this deserves its own article) and removed rarely used features as well as a bunch of bloat from the database.</p>
<p>Most of the database was filled with users&rsquo; collection items, i.e., games they rated, owned, have played etc. So all this information had to go. As a consequence, the recommendations would be cluttered with all those games the user is already familiar with, making them much less useful. That&rsquo;s the reason we didn&rsquo;t make a big announcement when we came back online in April.</p>
<p>But fear not! We&rsquo;ve brought back collection items for users who really want to use Recommend.Games, thus providing a way to continue to serve the best recommendation experience possible, whilst still keeping hosting lean.</p>
<p><em>How does it work?</em> When you request your recommendations from Recommend.Games as usual by typing your BoardGameGeek user name into the engine, but we don&rsquo;t find your collection in the database, you&rsquo;ll see a prompt that allows you to submit a request to have your collection added:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-is-back/collection_request.png"
	alt="Prompt to submit a collection request"
	 />

<p>Click on the link and follow the instructions. This will submit a request to add collection items for one or more users to the database. Once this is approved, your collection will be added to the database the next time it is updated (this might take up to a week or more), so please be a little patient. After that, you can enjoy the full Recommend.Games experience! 🤩</p>
<p><em>Why do you ask for money?</em> Recommend.Games is 100% open source and developed, improved and maintained by volunteers as a hobby project. It&rsquo;s not meant to make money, but it does <em>cost</em> money to run, mostly from hosting. That&rsquo;s why we kindly ask those users who find value in what we do and who can afford it to contribute about 1€ per month towards those costs. If you&rsquo;d rather put your money to make the world a better place, please consider donating to a charity of your choice, as long as it promotes a more inclusive, sustainable and loving world. And finally, if your financial situation doesn&rsquo;t allow for a donation, don&rsquo;t worry, you can still submit your request without a bad conscience – Recommend.Games is open for anyone. 🤗</p>
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</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2023 winners</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/</link>
<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2023 16:25:13 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The cat&rsquo;s out of the bag and the winners <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/en/spiel-des-jahres-2023-dorfromantik/">have been announced</a>!</p>
<p>This year&rsquo;s show was… long… On the one hand, it&rsquo;s nice to have all three awards (including the <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span>) back together in one announcement, but on the other hand, once you add special awards, the review of the 1983 awards, interviews etc, even die hard fans (and obviously I&rsquo;m one of them) have a hard time keeping their attention up. The jury is clearly actively trying to improve the award ceremony, so hopefully next year everything will be a bit snappier.</p>
<p>But without further ado, here are the winners of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>!</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2023span"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/sdj-2023_hu5b451b45bd44b011a005cf60e15449a4_172426_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame370591-stylefont-variant-small-capsdorfromantik-the-board-gamea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik: The Board Game</a></h2>
<p><em>1–6 players, 30–60 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.7)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/370591_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1062577_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Dorfromantik: The Board Game"
	 />

<p>In the end, the main award went to what most observers (myself included) considered the favourite. I guess I should be happy the jury didn&rsquo;t pick <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station: London</a>, so I don&rsquo;t have to stop being <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>&rsquo;s fanboy. 😅</p>
<p>Maybe we can continue the co-op vs solo game discussion some other time, but for now I really do think this is a very pleasing puzzle, whether on your own or with friends, and it&rsquo;ll make a great ambassador for the hobby, maybe even pull in a video gamer or two. I don&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;ll knock anybody off their socks or redefine their expectations of board gaming, but they&rsquo;ll have a good time, and that&rsquo;s what matters most.</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2023span"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/ksdj-2023_hud3a7218bc30c424c7759b9c83149f8b6_144450_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame359970-stylefont-variant-small-capschallengersa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a></h2>
<p><em>1–8 players, 45 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.8)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/359970_hufb094c803fee4c020d6edb329066c8de_1052280_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Challengers!"
	 />

<p>Just as with <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, most people&rsquo;s first guess won <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>. This decision was somewhat controversial nonetheless: not so much because of the game&rsquo;s qualities, but because of the colour of the award. Some people went full on gatekeeper because the jury called <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> a &ldquo;connoisseur game&rdquo; – just read through the comment section of <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/blogpost/150093/dorfromantik-board-game-wins-2023-spiel-des-jahres">this BGG news article</a> 🍿.</p>
<p>It is worth noticing that this year&rsquo;s <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> are only separated by 0.1 on BGG&rsquo;s complexity scale (1.7 and 1.8 respectively, at the time of writing). And I certainly have been considering <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> a candidate for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> as well. But one also needs to trust the jury in their judgement here who don&rsquo;t blindly follow BGG&rsquo;s data and apply some algorithm (trust me, <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/">I&rsquo;ve tried</a> 😅), but actually watch a wide spectrum of people play the games and hence understand the difficulty they can present. I highly doubt the 28 people who voted <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> to be a &ldquo;light&rdquo; game (complexity: 1) ever tried to explain the game to casual gamers and then leave them to fight their battles on their own.</p>
<p>In the end, we&rsquo;re left with a winner that&rsquo;s not quite like any other game out there and hence <em>could</em> push people&rsquo;s expectations of board games today. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> doesn&rsquo;t have the same strategic depth as the other nominees, but if there were no skills involved, how come I fail this consistently with my decks after dozens of games on <a href="https://boardgamearena.com/gamepanel?game=challengers">Board Game Arena</a>? 😉</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspecial-awards-2023span"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Special Awards 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/sonderpreis-2023_hu1ca40e941ae60ec0cc0e2947a0ab9184_27906_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Special Awards 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350636-stylefont-variant-small-capsunlock-game-adventuresa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350636" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Unlock!: Game Adventures</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.4)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-winners/350636_huccddea9052587f112e3d38e4f3f68a87_129450_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Unlock!: Game Adventures"
	 />

<p>Let&rsquo;s not forget the special award for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350636" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Unlock!: Game Adventures</a> as well as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/327056" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Unlock! Kids: Detective Stories</a>, and to some extent the whole Unlock! line. I&rsquo;ve personally been a big fan of their games for a long time and agree with the jury&rsquo;s sentiment that the entries have become even better over time. Let&rsquo;s hope that this rare honour will encourage them to keep it up – and maybe become a little faster in bringing new cases from France out into the rest of the world.</p>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>If you had asked me in winter about my guess for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>, I would&rsquo;ve said it&rsquo;ll be a battle between <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> (with a slight advantage for the latter), but I wouldn&rsquo;t have a clue about <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. Because it didn&rsquo;t come head to head between the two favourites, I can now claim that I called both awards correctly again, bringing my total to seven out of eight over the past four years.</p>
<p>As always, it&rsquo;s been a lot of fun, and I&rsquo;m already looking forward to another year of gaming and predictions. With a little luck, I&rsquo;ll be live at the ceremony in Berlin next July again. 🤞</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2023 predictions – Part 2!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 13 Jul 2023 15:32:50 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The waiting is finally coming to an end! On Sunday, July 16, the jury will announce the winners of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>. We&rsquo;re blessed with another year of very strong games and I&rsquo;m certainly very excited to learn what games will win the two awards.</p>
<p>After <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/">two</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/">years</a> of calling both winners correctly, I&rsquo;ve missed the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span> winner <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/">last year</a>, so I hope I&rsquo;ll do better this year. 😎</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2023span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/sdj-2023_hu5b451b45bd44b011a005cf60e15449a4_172426_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<p>Before we dive into the individual games, let&rsquo;s look at some numbers to see some objective measures for them – as far as this is possible. What we&rsquo;ve got at our disposal are the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2023&amp;yearMax=2022&amp;include=177478,258779,353545,359970,370164,370591&amp;excludeRated=false">recommendations to the <code>S_d_J</code> bot</a>, BoardGameGeek&rsquo;s average rating and the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">Bayesian rating</a>. Additionally, I&rsquo;ve created a <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3112389/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2023-kennerspiel-des-jahres">poll on BGG</a> where the geeks could have their say:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2023&amp;yearMax=2021&amp;include=353545,370164,370591&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3112389/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2023-kennerspiel-des-jahres">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.8</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>69.6%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">13.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.5</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>6.5</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">17.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>This looks like a head-to-head between <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station: London</a>. Or could this be an underdog win for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a>? Let&rsquo;s take a closer look at the nominees.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame370591-stylefont-variant-small-capsdorfromantik-the-board-gamea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik: The Board Game</a></h2>
<p><em>1–6 players, 30–60 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.7)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/370591_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1062577_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Dorfromantik: The Board Game"
	 />

<p>There&rsquo;s a lot of buzz going on around this video game adaptation that the jury describes as a &ldquo;feel-good-game&rdquo;. It sure feels soothing how the landscape evolves over the course of the game, while presenting an interesting challenge to score as many points as possible. The campaign mode with its unlockable content offers some fresh challenges every time and provides a great excuse to come back to the game again and again.</p>
<p>I definitely had a lovely time playing through the campaign for eleven straight evenings. I even found myself looking forward to incorporating that new tile I just unlocked into my strategy for the next game and chase a new highscore. Sure, for the last game or two it did feel like I was mostly going through the motions just to tick off the last few boxes, but on the other hand: what was the last game you played for eleven days in a row?</p>
<p>But hidden in there is also my biggest concern: for me, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik</a> is essentially a solo game. Of course, you can discuss with your group where to place a tile, but that&rsquo;s true for <em>any</em> solo game – by that logic, they&rsquo;re all just &ldquo;co-operative games you can play on your own&rdquo;.</p>
<p>One final question remains: Will the jury award <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> to another comforting hex-tile-laying game one year after <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a>? They always claim that they don&rsquo;t concern themselves with such considerations, and the two games do play out quite differently. Still, the award is meant as an ambassador for the board gaming hobby, so highlighting the breadth of what a game could be beyond plopping hexes on the table yet again can&rsquo;t be entirely dismissed.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame370164-stylefont-variant-small-capsfun-factsa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a></h2>
<p><em>4–8 players, 30 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/370164_hu57c6c177b04e504a5374067f3738d010_314211_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Fun Facts"
	 />

<p>The pitch of a party game that allows you to get to know your group, but in a controlled and gentle manner, seems to be a perfect match for a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Of course, there isn&rsquo;t &ldquo;enough game&rdquo; to it for the &lsquo;geek crowd, so don&rsquo;t be fooled by the numbers above. The jury definitely has a fondness for very direct games that mostly play above the table: in the interactions between the players.</p>
<p>Still, I was a little surprised by the nomination. Whilst the reviews were by and large very positive, the game seems to work best with players you already somewhat know. In a fairly random group, the game can fall flat since you have no reference points to go on about when comparing one player&rsquo;s answer to another one&rsquo;s. A <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> should work for anybody, so that caveat seems significant to me and puts <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a> at some disadvantage in the competition for the red meeple.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame353545-stylefont-variant-small-capsnext-station-londona"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station: London</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 25–30 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.4)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/353545_hu35bc36b2d8bc0a703c8cce052115e8cb_199901_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Next Station: London"
	 />

<p>By my count, this is the forth &ldquo;random&rsquo;n&rsquo;write&rdquo; game to be nominated for either award over the past decade, and to be honest, I&rsquo;m not sure what this particular variant adds to the genre. I do find it very elegant how the fact that every players draws a different underground line every round breaks the symmetry such that everybody&rsquo;s tube map will look different despite following the same cards. But as far as the actual gameplay goes, I found the very similar <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/346482" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Voll Verplant</a> to be the more intriguing puzzle. My final grump is that a winning map looks nothing like an actual underground map: the scoring incentivises players to zig-zag through quarters and back and forth across the river, and that&rsquo;s just not how an efficient public transport system is designed.</p>
<p>This is not to say <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station: London</a> wouldn&rsquo;t be a fine game and a deserving nominee, but I&rsquo;d be fairly disappointed if it did win the award that puts it in line with such giants as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">CATAN</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/822" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Carcassonne</a>.</p>
<p>OK, one more complaint, then I&rsquo;ll shut up: I had a hard time learning the game from the rule book, and I&rsquo;ve played over 600 different games. How would this fair with the average gamer?</p>
<p>Also, there&rsquo;s zero interaction between players. (Yeah, I lied, I wasn&rsquo;t done.) Like, not even a race for completing an objective first or anything. Why would the jury shout from the roof that games are a cultural and social good worth studying and promoting, just to put the spotlight on a game that has players silently ignore each other for half an hour whilst drawing the least efficient tube maps possible?</p>
<p>Again, not a bad game by any stretch, I just don&rsquo;t see it as <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> material.</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win">Who will win?</h2>
<p>Alright, I guess it doesn&rsquo;t come as a surprise that I don&rsquo;t think <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station: London</a> will (or rather: should) win. As I already said, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a> is in some respects the perfect <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, still my money is on <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik</a>. It has a couple of things going for itself:</p>
<ol>
<li>The jury clearly disagrees with my assessment of it being a solo (only) game, so that doesn&rsquo;t seem to be an obstacle.</li>
<li>Maybe being a solo game isn&rsquo;t all that bad? Maybe it&rsquo;s time to highlight this part of the hobby? But then again, Harald Schrapers, chair of the jury, wrote a whole editorial on how he&rsquo;s &ldquo;totally not interested&rdquo; in solo gaming (spielbox 2019/7).</li>
<li>From a social aspect, maybe the strongest draw could be the promise of bringing video gamers into the analogue tabletop world. As an ambassador for the hobby, this could be the most valuable asset of them all.</li>
</ol>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2023span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/ksdj-2023_hud3a7218bc30c424c7759b9c83149f8b6_144450_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<p>Let&rsquo;s take a look at the same metrics as above, but for the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> nominees:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2023&amp;yearMax=2022&amp;include=177478,258779,359970&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3112389/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2023-kennerspiel-des-jahres">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.4</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.3</td>
<td style="text-align:right">29.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/177478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">IKI</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.6</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.7</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">14.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/258779" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Planet Unknown</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>6.7</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.2</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>55.3%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The numbers clearly favour <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/258779" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Planet Unknown</a> to win <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>. Will the jury agree with the wisdom of the crowd?</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame359970-stylefont-variant-small-capschallengersa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a></h2>
<p><em>1–8 players, 45 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.8)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/359970_hufb094c803fee4c020d6edb329066c8de_1052280_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Challengers!"
	 />

<p>This one was a bit of a surprise to the algorithm, but not because it was nominated, but on what list. It had a 0% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score, and unlike some other decisions by the algorithm, in this case I agreed with its classification. The cartoonish appearance and the lack of player agency during large portions of the game seem much better suited for a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> than a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. And indeed, when presenting the longlist in ascending order of difficulty, the jury mentioned <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> as the simplest amongst the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> recommendations, i.e., the one that would have been most likely to leap over to the other award. Having played this game now with more players, I do see where the jury is coming from: there&rsquo;s a lot of details going on that aren&rsquo;t intuitive on first playthrough. What&rsquo;s worse: In the usual setting, where one player explains the rules to the rest of the group, you might have up to three head-to-head battles with new players left entirely to their own devices and being confused what&rsquo;s the difference between &ldquo;gaining the flag&rdquo;, &ldquo;in flag possession&rdquo; and &ldquo;on flag loss&rdquo;.</p>
<p>So, while I do think that this game plays out like a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> for skilled players, it presents the barriers of entry like a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> for casual players, and that&rsquo;s what matters most for the classification of the award type.</p>
<p>But once that barrier is cleared, I think this is quite an exceptional game, certainly in the sense that there isn&rsquo;t really anything like it out there. The jury mentions that this is a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> that creates a party game atmosphere, and I think once you buy into the mindset and let go of control of your team, it&rsquo;s really entertaining to come up with interesting combos, just to see your team completely fail to execute your brilliant strategy on the pitch.</p>
<p>Of course, there&rsquo;s a lot of luck and randomness involved, which can lead to frustrating moments, but this is a game that plays out so quickly that it&rsquo;s not a bug but a feature. There really are a lot of clever little design decisions in there which make this game sing. I&rsquo;m certainly already excited to see how <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/390340" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers! 2</a> will stir up the formula.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame177478-stylefont-variant-small-capsikia"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/177478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">IKI</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60–90 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/177478_hu9e44ebdae9be5804c96f5ade7a4f6bfa_1383696_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="IKI"
	 />

<p>This is the second edition of a game that itself re-implements <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/164878" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Edo Craftsman Story</a>, a game that is almost a decade old. In a time that&rsquo;s dominated by the cult of the new and where a second print run is the exception, it&rsquo;s nice to see so much appreciation for a game past its initial hype cycle.</p>
<p>I haven&rsquo;t played <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/177478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">IKI</a> yet, so don&rsquo;t have much to say about the gameplay. The jury points out how the mechanics actually capture the spirit of being a trader in Japan at the time, which sounds like an intriguing proposition.</p>
<p>The last thing I&rsquo;ll have to say is that the complexity seems on the upper end of what the jury would consider for a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. Not out of the question, but it does make a win for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/177478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">IKI</a> less likely.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame258779-stylefont-variant-small-capsplanet-unknowna"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/258779" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Planet Unknown</a></h2>
<p><em>1–6 players, 60–80 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions-part-2/258779_huf9107a45afbac3cac2a0cd3257d4214e_475632_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Planet Unknown"
	 />

<p>Another game I haven&rsquo;t played, but the buzz is quite strong. The combination of tile laying and tech tree seems fresh enough. Opinions are split on the central carousel that determines what tiles are available to each player every round – both if it was necessary to blow up the price of the game like this and whether calling it the Lazy S.U.S.A.N. space station is a clever pun or a little trite.</p>
<p>By all means, the reviews are strong and both weight and length seem to hit the sweet spot of a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, so <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/258779" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Planet Unknown</a> is definitely a strong contender.</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win-1">Who will win?</h2>
<p>I think it&rsquo;s clear that all three nominees are very strong and have a realistic chance of winning – none of them would be a big surprise. But in the end I&rsquo;ll go with the title that had the strongest reviews and was the frontrunner right from the start: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> It&rsquo;s the most unusual game amongst the nominees (which isn&rsquo;t necessarily something the jury cares about, see the very safe picks from last year), but I think in many respects it can push the public&rsquo;s perception of what a board game can be and do, which <em>is</em> something the jury cares about deeply. (At least I interpret their choises this way… 😉)</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s see if this bet-against-the-odds will pay off for me. We&rsquo;ll be wiser on Sunday! I hope you&rsquo;re as excited as I am. 😎</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2023 nominations</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 02 Jul 2023 23:20:42 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p><a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/aktuelle-preistraeger-2023/">Nominations are out</a>! The jury selected a total of fifteen games for their longlist, ten for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and five for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Out of these games, three games each are nominated for the two awards and can hope to get the coveted meeple added to their covers on July 16.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s dive straight into the nominations and recommendations, before we discuss how good (or bad) <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/">my predictions</a> were and if the agreed with our <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</a>.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2023span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/sdj-2023_hu5b451b45bd44b011a005cf60e15449a4_172426_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame370591-stylefont-variant-small-capsdorfromantik-the-board-gamea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik: The Board Game</a></h2>
<p><em>1–6 players, 30–60 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.7), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/370591_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1062577_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Dorfromantik: The Board Game"
	 />

<p>Probably the strongest contender for a nomination beforehand. No surprises here…</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame370164-stylefont-variant-small-capsfun-factsa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a></h2>
<p><em>4–8 players, 30 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.0), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/370164_hu57c6c177b04e504a5374067f3738d010_314211_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Fun Facts"
	 />

<p>Together with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/375651" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Not a Hat</a>, designer Kasper Lapp had two entries with quite some buzz, though the algorithm wouldn&rsquo;t pick it up and placed <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a> on #36 of the predictions.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame353545-stylefont-variant-small-capsnext-station-londona"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station: London</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 25–30 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.4), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/353545_hu35bc36b2d8bc0a703c8cce052115e8cb_199901_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Next Station: London"
	 />

<p>This was the #1 prediction, so the nomination is a logical consequence, even though I didn&rsquo;t see it being nominated.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/357563" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Akropolis</a>: Having won the As d&rsquo;Or and being placed #5 by the algorithm, &ldquo;just&rdquo; a recommendation is almost disappointing… 😉</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318243" style="font-variant: small-caps;">HITSTER</a>: Only #18 by the algorithm, but I squeezed it in as an honourable mention. This could&rsquo;ve been a strong contender for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, but it works best with a paid Spotify subscription, which really hampered its chances for a nomination.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/356742" style="font-variant: small-caps;">KuZOOkA</a>: I&rsquo;ve even had this down for a nomination, so a recommendation was expected in the end.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/358690" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MANTIS</a>: This year&rsquo;s obligatory jury suprise, just #173 prediction according to algorithm. Another simple card game by the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/172225" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Exploding Kittens</a> publishers.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266830" style="font-variant: small-caps;">QE</a>: For me this was a candidate for a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> nomination – in the end, the algorithm was right, predicting a place on the longlist for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/367220" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sea Salt &amp; Paper</a>: At #17 of the predictions a near miss. Another fairly simple card game that was on many commentators&rsquo; lists.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/375651" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Not a Hat</a>: As mentioned with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370164" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fun Facts</a>, this was another much discussed game. At #20, the algorithm actually gave it the better odds.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2023span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/ksdj-2023_hud3a7218bc30c424c7759b9c83149f8b6_144450_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame359970-stylefont-variant-small-capschallengersa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a></h2>
<p><em>1–8 players, 45 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.8), 0% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/359970_hufb094c803fee4c020d6edb329066c8de_1052280_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Challengers!"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> was definitely one of the jury members&rsquo; darlings and couldn&rsquo;t possibly be absent from any predictions list. The algorithm put it on #16, I saw it amongst the nominations – for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>… We&rsquo;ll have more things to discuss on this topic in the follow-up predictions article.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame177478-stylefont-variant-small-capsikia"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/177478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">IKI</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60–90 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.0), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/177478_hu9e44ebdae9be5804c96f5ade7a4f6bfa_1383696_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="IKI"
	 />

<p>Even though the algorithm placed it #2 amongst the predictions, this game feels a bit like an underdog, partially because it was originally released in 2015, but didn&rsquo;t receive much attention until its got a second edition. Now it&rsquo;s nominated for the most prestigious award in board gaming!</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame258779-stylefont-variant-small-capsplanet-unknowna"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/258779" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Planet Unknown</a></h2>
<p><em>1–6 players, 60–80 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 7% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/258779_huf9107a45afbac3cac2a0cd3257d4214e_475632_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Planet Unknown"
	 />

<p>The only <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> nomination I got dead-on right, even though the algorithm placed it only on #21 – again for the wrong award…</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/368954" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Council of Shadows</a>: I even thought a nomination was possible, even though the algorithm placed it only #82. In the end probably a bit too heavy for a nomination.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/345584" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mindbug: First Contact</a>: Jury surprises, part 2. This one the algorithm had only as prediction #101. I can&rsquo;t say I&rsquo;ve heard much else about the game otherwise either, though it has a very famous name amongst its design team…</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspecial-awards-2023span"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Special Awards 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/sonderpreis-2023_hu1ca40e941ae60ec0cc0e2947a0ab9184_27906_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Special Awards 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350636-stylefont-variant-small-capsunlock-game-adventuresa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350636" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Unlock!: Game Adventures</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.4), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-nominations/350636_huccddea9052587f112e3d38e4f3f68a87_129450_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Unlock!: Game Adventures"
	 />

<p>The jury also awarded two special awards this year, the first in five years and the first ever for a <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span>. This honour goes to the Unlock! series in general, and to their latest installment in particular, which lifts the concept on a wonderful meta level by choosing the three popular games <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/181304" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mysterium</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/9209" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic</a> as background stories.</p>
<p>At this point in the history of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> it is almost a running gag that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic</a> designer Matt Leacock has never won the main award. He was nominated three times with various <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic</a> variants and received said last special award for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/221107" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 2</a>. Now his game inspired another special award winner – but still no main award. Maybe the jury waits for Season 13 for that?</p>
<h1 id="how-good-were-the-predictions">How good were the predictions?</h1>
<p>This really is a drama in three acts: the decision of <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> or not, the algorithm picking the longlist, and finally my guts picking the shortlist.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspielspan-score"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</h2>
<p>Of the fifteen games on the two longlists, the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/">algorithm</a> classified two wrong – both nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/258779" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Planet Unknown</a>. The former was sorted as the lightest amongst the connoisseur games as presented by the jury, so at least that seems like a near miss, even though the algorithm was 100% convinced it should be on the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> list. 🙈 Still, overall 87% correct ain&rsquo;t too bad.</p>
<h2 id="longlist">Longlist</h2>
<p>This one&rsquo;s pretty bad… 😅 The algorithm predicted a mere six out of fifteen games (40%) correctly. I can at least claim for myself that I predicted or mentioned honourably a further four games, bumping the accuracy to 67%, which is somewhat in line with previous years.</p>
<h2 id="shortlist">Shortlist</h2>
<p>It&rsquo;s not getting any better. This year, I only called three out of six nominations correctly – one of them for the wrong award. Two out of those predictions were &ldquo;manual overrides&rdquo; because the algorithm didn&rsquo;t pick up those games at all. Overall, the weakest year so far for my predictions, it appears I need to adjust the algorithms a little bit.</p>
<p>That&rsquo;s it for now, we&rsquo;ll be back soon with a little more in-depth analyses on the six nominees and their chances of winning an award.</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2023 predictions</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/</link>
<pubDate>Sat, 20 May 2023 22:24:54 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span> is around the corner! As in <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">the</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/">previous</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/">years</a>, I&rsquo;ll try to predict what games have the best shot at ending up on the longlist (aka <em>recommendations</em>) and the shortlist (aka <em>nominations</em>) when the jury announces their picks on May 22nd.</p>
<p>As every year, I&rsquo;ll let the algorithms speak. The predictions for the longlist come directly from the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;excludeRated=false&amp;yearMin=2022&amp;yearMax=2023">recommendendations</a> out of all eligible<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> games. Our very own <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/">Kennerspiel score</a> is then used to sort those into their respective list of the top 10 contenders for either award. You can find the <a href="predictions.py">detailed analysis here</a> and <a href="predictions.csv">complete results here</a>. But without further ado, here are the favourite games to win <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2023span">Candidates for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/sdj-2023_hu5b451b45bd44b011a005cf60e15449a4_172426_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame353545-stylefont-variant-small-capsnext-station-londona">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/353545" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Next Station: London</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 25–30 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.4), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/353545_hu35bc36b2d8bc0a703c8cce052115e8cb_199901_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Next Station: London"
	 />

<p>Draw tube lines to cross the Thames and connect London.</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame364073-stylefont-variant-small-capssplendor-duela">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/364073" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Splendor Duel</a></h2>
<p><em>2 players, 30 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.0), 70% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/364073_hu475cf5b60db2559ec0993b160e3f8afe_462404_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Splendor Duel"
	 />

<p>Renaissance merchants go head to head to please nobility.</p>
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame354729-stylefont-variant-small-capswonder-woodsa">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/354729" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wonder Woods</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20–25 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.2), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/354729_hu070a73162f31bc29358cd265b0a05198_145017_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Wonder Woods"
	 />

<p>Use bluff and deduction in order to find the best mushroom spots.</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame297658-stylefont-variant-small-capskosmopolita">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/297658" style="font-variant: small-caps;">[kosmopoli:t]</a></h2>
<p><em>4–8 players, 6 minutes, 10+ years, light (1.3), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/297658_huf125c91f0112164fcd707d99867043de_799010_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="[kosmopoli:t]"
	 />

<p>Cooperative Kitchen Work serving client from all over the world.</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame357563-stylefont-variant-small-capsakropolisa">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/357563" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Akropolis</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 20–30 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.8), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/357563_hu205076ca4bc85d6631edc3208a2f1289_1059460_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Akropolis"
	 />

<p>Build your Greek city on multiple levels to keep your districts perfectly placed.</p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame356742-stylefont-variant-small-capskuzookaa">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/356742" style="font-variant: small-caps;">KuZOOkA</a></h2>
<p><em>2–6 players, 30–45 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (2.0), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/356742_hu21967d17c11f7241244ae75f7fe7abdf_1114872_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="KuZOOkA"
	 />

<p>Discover the most promising escape option and break out of the zoo.</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame367047-stylefont-variant-small-capscaldera-parka">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/367047" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Caldera Park</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–40 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.0), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/367047_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_680154_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Caldera Park"
	 />

<p>Take care of animals in your park by forming big herds and avoiding bad weather.</p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame324914-stylefont-variant-small-capsinside-joba">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/324914" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Inside Job</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 20–30 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.7), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/324914_hu30aaaa585d454d8dea3ad23e9ab45f8c_620274_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Inside Job"
	 />

<p>Agents work together to complete missions and gather intel but who&rsquo;s &ldquo;The Insider&rdquo;?</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame266830-stylefont-variant-small-capsqea">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266830" style="font-variant: small-caps;">QE</a></h2>
<p><em>3–5 players, 45 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.6), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/266830_hubbe11c6bef2a5b91aa46a21d0ccdfe2e_1124859_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="QE"
	 />

<p>Bid ANYTHING to bail out companies, but just don’t bid the MOST!</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame370591-stylefont-variant-small-capsdorfromantik-the-board-gamea">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik: The Board Game</a></h2>
<p><em>1–6 players, 30–60 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.7), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/370591_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1062577_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Dorfromantik: The Board Game"
	 />

<p>Experience the peaceful and relaxed atmosphere of the video game on your table.</p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2023span">Candidates for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/ksdj-2023_hud3a7218bc30c424c7759b9c83149f8b6_144450_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame364186-stylefont-variant-small-capsterra-novaa">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/364186" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terra Nova</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60–90 minutes, 12+ years, medium (2.8), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/364186_hu5792f6f0906116bc830f4438de2d5ea8_1319897_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Terra Nova"
	 />

<p>Control one of ten asymmetric factions in a streamlined version of Terra Mystica.</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame177478-stylefont-variant-small-capsikia">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/177478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">IKI</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60–90 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.0), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/177478_hu9e44ebdae9be5804c96f5ade7a4f6bfa_1383696_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="IKI"
	 />

<p>Hire artisans, set them up in the market and acquire prestige in feudal Japan.</p>
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame336986-stylefont-variant-small-capsflamecrafta">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/336986" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Flamecraft</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/336986_hue0fd3186a84d073282a5b5ca5455b3df_221230_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Flamecraft"
	 />

<p>In a magical realm a village awakes, and artisan dragons make coffee and cakes!</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame362452-stylefont-variant-small-capsatiwaa">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/362452" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Atiwa</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–120 minutes, 12+ years, medium (2.7), 99% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/362452_hu8147bcc4f857bdf9ba75eb70fea53728_357090_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Atiwa"
	 />

<p>Choose your actions carefully as you balance the needs of the community and nature.</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame351913-stylefont-variant-small-capstiletuma">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/351913" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tiletum</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–100 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.4), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/351913_hu107c9166fa6f0d8f094ddb470b352e1d_78604_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Tiletum"
	 />

<p>Use dice for resources and actions to gain riches in the Renaissance.</p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame369880-stylefont-variant-small-capsbeer--breada">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/369880" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Beer &amp; Bread</a></h2>
<p><em>2 players, 30–45 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.4), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/369880_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_267195_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Beer &amp; Bread"
	 />

<p>Two villages face off in the traditions of brewing beer and baking bread.</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame350933-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-guild-of-merchant-explorersa">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/350933" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Guild of Merchant Explorers</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (2.1), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/350933_hucad32aad247baa0dd3860bde1af76fcd_107956_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Guild of Merchant Explorers"
	 />

<p>Explore strange lands, establish trade routes, and search for treasure.</p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame335275-stylefont-variant-small-capswhirling-witchcrafta">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/335275" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Whirling Witchcraft</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 15–30 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (1.8), 98% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/335275_hu25d2089954f2c273b6c9315ba0622b2a_4318566_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Whirling Witchcraft"
	 />

<p>Use your recipes to generate ingredients and overflow your opponent&rsquo;s cauldron.</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame339906-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-hungera">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/339906" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Hunger</a></h2>
<p><em>2–6 players, 60 minutes, 12+ years, medium light (2.3), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/339906_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_555495_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Hunger"
	 />

<p>As a vampire, you want to hunt humans, but you must return home before sunrise…</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame293835-stylefont-variant-small-capsoltrééa">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/293835" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Oltréé</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (2.4), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2023-predictions/293835_hu8df07ffa1299b60ed6f308b5b6cd2d4c_5485256_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Oltréé"
	 />

<p>Rangers help local communities and defend their Kingdom in order to restore hope.</p>
<h1 id="my-two-cents">My two cents</h1>
<p>This is where I usually take the algorithmic predictions for the longlists and pick three games each that I think the jury will nominate. But this year, I&rsquo;ll proceed a little different – because I don&rsquo;t agree with the algorithms all that much… 🙈 So I&rsquo;ll go pretty freestyle with my predictions for the nominees, both with picks from outside the algorithm&rsquo;s top 10 and contradicting the Kennerspiel score. 😅</p>
<h2 id="my-predictions-for-nominees-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2023span">My predictions for nominees for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/359970" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Challengers!</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/370591" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dorfromantik: The Board Game</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/356742" style="font-variant: small-caps;">KuZOOkA</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="my-predictions-for-nominees-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2023span">My predictions for nominees for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/368954" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Council of Shadows</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/258779" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Planet Unknown</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266830" style="font-variant: small-caps;">QE</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="honourable-mentions">Honourable mentions</h1>
<p>Lastly, let me squeeze in a few more titles in order to increase my chance of covering the whole list. Since I&rsquo;ve already turned my back on my own algorithms, let me just throw out a few more title I think it might have missed… 😉</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/271601" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Feed the Kraken</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318243" style="font-variant: small-caps;">HITSTER</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/341530" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Super Mega Lucky Box</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>As you can tell from the somewhat uncommon way I picked the predictions for the shortlist, I feel like there are much fewer &ldquo;obvious&rdquo; candidates than in previous year – in particular for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, which is weird, since that&rsquo;s usually the award where us board game nerds are much more up-to-date.</p>
<p>So even more than in previous years, I&rsquo;ll be excited to hear what the jury will surprise us with.</p>
<p>Finally, let&rsquo;s not forget <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. I&rsquo;m really curious about that one – but from a regular customer&rsquo;s perspective, since I really appreciate the guidance to new games I can try with my kids. 👨👩👧👧</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>As every year, it&rsquo;s not straightforward to determine what games are eligible for the awards. Generally speaking, it&rsquo;d be those games release between April 2022 and March 2023 into German retail. Hence, filtering by BGG release year will exclude games that were released earlier elsewhere, but only recently in Germany, and likewise let some games pass that have not seen a German release in that time window. I did my best to catch what I could, but there&rsquo;s always some that get away.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Announcement: Recommend.Games will take a hiatus</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/announcement-hiatus/</link>
<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jul 2022 13:37:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/announcement-hiatus/</guid>
<description><p><em>Update: The <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-is-back/">hiatus is over</a>! Recommend.Games is back, albeit with some reduced functionality.</em></p>
<p>The very first <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/board-game-scraper/-/commit/d46a0867c24c30e8d8f9d70443dda9a2bc145101">commit</a> to the project <em>ludoj</em><sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>, as I called it back then, was on December 5th, 2016. I <a href="https://www.whois.com/whois/recommend.games">registered the domain Recommend.Games</a> on November 22nd, 2018. On May 15th, 2020, I published the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">first post</a> on this blog. Over the years, this site attracted more than 50,000 users, which is a huge number, if you think about it.</p>
<p><strong>Today, I&rsquo;d like to inform you that the board game recommendation engine at Recommend.Games will take a hiatus from mid August 2022.</strong></p>
<p><em>What does that mean?</em> The main site of Recommend.Games, the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/">recommendation engine</a>, will no longer work. The blog will continue to be hosted and potentially still be updated, if I find the time and <a href="https://gitlab.com/groups/recommend.games/-/issues">interesting topics</a> to write about.</p>
<p><em>What does hiatus mean?</em> I hope to resume operation and development in some form at some point in the future. There&rsquo;s still plenty of awesome features I&rsquo;d like to develop when I get around to it. Also, Recommend.Games always has been and will remain an <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games">open source project</a>, so I&rsquo;d be delighted if someone else found the time to pick up the development.</p>
<p><em>Why the hiatus?</em> Hosting has become too expensive for the number of visitors it attracts on a daily basis and I simply do not have the required time for maintenance, let alone development. Maybe we&rsquo;ll be back, but for now, grab and save your recommendations while you can.</p>
<p><strong>So long, and thanks for all the games!</strong></p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>That&rsquo;s Esperanto for <em>games</em>, thanks for asking.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2022 winners</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-winners/</link>
<pubDate>Sat, 16 Jul 2022 19:00:00 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-winners/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-winners/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The cat&rsquo;s out of the bag and the winners <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/cascadia-ist-das-spiel-des-jahres-2022/">have been announced</a>! As mentioned before, this year was the first time the ceremony was held on a Saturday evening and I had the immense pleasure of attending it in person. In case you missed my very profesional live coverage on Twitter, here&rsquo;s a <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkusRShepherd/status/1553060952559452160?s=20&amp;t=cr68YeOuUltbs57V050Umg">summary</a> of the event.</p>
<p>But without further ado, here are the winners of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span>!</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2022span"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-winners/sdj-2022_hu5e3fdd001a190ae36adaf7998bfd8a92_125358_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame295947-stylefont-variant-small-capscascadiaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–45 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.9)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-winners/295947_hu04e55d578b6de23601c41937f2780f66_214784_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cascadia"
	 />

<p>In the end, it was the favourite that won <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span>. It&rsquo;s the first award I called wrong in three years – still not a bad quota I guess. 🤷 Somewhat ironically, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> remains the only game of the six nominees I haven&rsquo;t played yet, but after playing <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a>, I do see how those games might not be for everyone. On the other hand, the positivity towards <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> was overwhelming – it&rsquo;s rare to see the &lsquo;geek crowd being so enthusiastic about the jury&rsquo;s decision. All in all, it appears <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> will make a great ambassador for the hobby board gaming.</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2022span"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-winners/ksdj-2022_hu0f3c9f87fd3a7a0e3cb48d0f81b65cf5_115738_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame328479-stylefont-variant-small-capsliving-foresta"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 40 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-winners/328479_hu70dfef88591deb7e0d4efa019afc5358_375287_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Living Forest"
	 />

<p>This award I got right, and as you could read from my <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/">previous post</a>, I very much agree with this decision. Similar to the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red award</strong></em></span>, I could see good reasons why the other <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> nominees <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a> have a bit narrower audiences, but I think <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> hits the sweetspot of a games that&rsquo;s &ldquo;one step up&rdquo; from a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> whilst still remaining fairly accessible. I&rsquo;m certain many many people will enjoy planting those trees and extinguishing those forest fires as much as I do.</p>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>I feel like I say this every year, but I think we&rsquo;ve had another very strong year with six excellent nominees that also were very different from each other. I blame the uniform strength on my first wrong call since I started these predictions. 😉</p>
<p>Attending the award ceremony will make this a very special year for me, and I hope I&rsquo;ll soon find the time to write a little article about my experience in Berlin.</p>
<p>As always, this has been great fun and I hope to be back with my predictions for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2023</strong></em></span>!</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2022 predictions – Part 2!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 14 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The waiting is finally coming to an end! On Saturday, July 16, the jury will announce the winners of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span>. We&rsquo;re blessed with another year of very strong games and I&rsquo;m certainly very excited to learn what games will win the two awards.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;m proud to say that I&rsquo;ve called both awards correctly for <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/">two</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/">years</a> running, so there is a bit of pressure to keep up the streak. 😅 So without further ado, let&rsquo;s look at the nominees.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2022span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/sdj-2022_hu5e3fdd001a190ae36adaf7998bfd8a92_125358_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<p>Before we dive into the individual games, let&rsquo;s look at some numbers to see some objective measures for them – as far as this is possible. What we&rsquo;ve got at our disposal are the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2022&amp;yearMax=2021&amp;include=291453,295947,300905,246784,316554,328479&amp;excludeRated=false">recommendations to the <code>S_d_J</code> bot</a>, BoardGameGeek&rsquo;s average rating and the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">Bayesian rating</a>. Additionally, I&rsquo;ve created a <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2897042/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2022-kennerspiel-des-jahres">poll on BGG</a> where the geeks could have their say:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2022&amp;yearMax=2021&amp;include=291453,295947,300905&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2897042/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2022-kennerspiel-des-jahres">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>77.8%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.7</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right">13.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.6</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">8.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>No doubt, the numbers are in favour of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a>. But will the jury agree? Let&rsquo;s look at the nominees in a little more detail.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame295947-stylefont-variant-small-capscascadiaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–45 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.9)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/295947_hu04e55d578b6de23601c41937f2780f66_214784_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cascadia"
	 />

<p>As mentioned, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> was high on everybody&rsquo;s list <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/">from the beginning</a>. This tile-laying game of creating landscapes filled with animals certainly hit a nerve with the geek community: it&rsquo;s currently ranked #68 overall on BGG and <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/abstracts/browse/boardgame?sort=rank&amp;rankobjecttype=family&amp;rankobjectid=4666">#1 in abstract games</a>.</p>
<p>Despite these high praises and the strong numbers, I feel like there are a lot of caveats here. First, our <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score was a little undecided as to what award it should be nominted in, so that speaks for a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> on the heavier side. Not a negative per se, but the jury did favour very light games over the past years for the family award. Also that classification as an abstract game isn&rsquo;t particularly favourable: it exposes the fact that the setting is nothing but an excuse to draw cute animals on the tiles.</p>
<p>None of this matters if the gameplay was an overwhelming experience. But when reading through the <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/kritikenrundschau-cascadia-wo-fuchs-und-lachs-sich-gute-nacht-sagen/">jury&rsquo;s reviews</a>, the tone isn&rsquo;t exactly enthusiastic. While everybody seems to have a good time, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> doesn&rsquo;t leave a lasting impression.</p>
<p>When you think of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> as an ambassador for the hobby board gaming, I don&rsquo;t think <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> is the best game for this job. Overall, it might be a fun, clever puzzle, but it also has a slightly dry and geeky aura to it that might fail to pull in new players.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame291453-stylefont-variant-small-capsscouta"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 15 minutes, 9+ years, light (1.4)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/291453_huc6043064bb7a8bf9432f1ca230259f6d_176736_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="SCOUT"
	 />

<p>As soon as the nomination for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a> was announced, the jokes started to come in where on the tiny box the publisher would even put the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red meeple</strong></em></span>. There certainly was a time when a small box card game would have been considered without chances of winning <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, but <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/98778" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hanabi</a> proved that this certainly isn&rsquo;t the case anymore.</p>
<p>Card games do have some advantages: they&rsquo;re cheap, portable and don&rsquo;t intimidate anyone. But all accounts, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a> also has some very clever mechanisms going for itself.</p>
<p>Still, I would consider this to be the dark horse in this year&rsquo;s race, though it would be a great service to the hobby if the jury showcased this gem from Japan to the Western markets.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300905-stylefont-variant-small-capstop-tena"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a></h2>
<p><em>4–9 players, 30 minutes, 14+ years, light (1.1)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/300905_huad40c1b976a285eebab8c45000699f50_94771_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Top Ten"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a> was the nominee that filled the &ldquo;not another party game&rdquo; square in the annual <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> bullshit bingo. I got the impression most geeks saw this as another variation of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/262543" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wavelength</a> and glanced over it. But when reading through the <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/kritikenrundschau-top-ten/">reviews</a>, they&rsquo;re full of testimonies of joy and laughter. What better motivation to get people to the table?</p>
<p>Of course, there are always caveats. Maybe most importantly, a game like this requires the group to come together and bring the game alive with their creativity. That&rsquo;s not to everyone&rsquo;s liking, but the fact that the people around the table matter more than the mechanics is still a plus in my book.</p>
<p>The other, more formal, concern is that this would be the first <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> that doesn&rsquo;t (claim to) work for three players. I&rsquo;ve stipulated <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">years ago</a> that a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> must work for three and four players, full stop. But the jury stated that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> doesn&rsquo;t work for four players, and claiming games like <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/178900" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Codenames</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/254640" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Just One</a> can be played with three players is just a lie publishers habitually print on boxes. This didn&rsquo;t stop the jury then and it shouldn&rsquo;t stop them now.</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win">Who will win?</h2>
<p>I guess you don&rsquo;t need to read between the lines above, my favourite for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span> is <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a>. It just fits best in line with past winners: approachable, quick, fun – the best games of the three to bring all kinds of people together around the table. By all means, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a> seem strong games that definitely have their fans, but my feeling tells me that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a> is the kind of game the jury is after.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2022span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/ksdj-2022_hu0f3c9f87fd3a7a0e3cb48d0f81b65cf5_115738_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<p>Let&rsquo;s take a look at the same metrics as above, but for the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> nominees:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2022&amp;yearMax=2021&amp;include=246784,316554,328479&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2897042/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2022-kennerspiel-des-jahres">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.3</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>52.5%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.3</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.4</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.3</td>
<td style="text-align:right">22.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The recommendation algorithm picks <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a> as its favourite, whilst the geeks choose <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a>. Or maybe <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> will surprise everyone in the end? Let&rsquo;s take a look at the candidates!</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame246784-stylefont-variant-small-capscryptida"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a></h2>
<p><em>3–5 players, 30–50 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/246784_hu07b869925c3a03ba58a2368c21062dcd_159187_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cryptid"
	 />

<p>This still is an interesting nomination to me. Logical deduction games haven&rsquo;t received much attention by the jury in the past, so it&rsquo;s quite nice they highlight this genre as well. It&rsquo;s still a tough sale for the general audience: essentially, you&rsquo;re trying to solve a very cerebral puzzle, and there&rsquo;s plenty of people who don&rsquo;t particularly enjoy that kind of pastime.</p>
<p>But even within the genre, I have some reservations about <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a>: I&rsquo;ve played it twice, and both times someone at the table understood their clue wrong, which meant the game just completely fell apart. It feels in a way &ldquo;irresponsible&rdquo; to &ldquo;unleash&rdquo; this game to a wide audience that often will play fast and loose with the rules.</p>
<p>Finally, in the very same genre we&rsquo;ve also had <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/279537" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Search for Planet X</a> released in Germany recently which I consider to be the stronger game.</p>
<p>Don&rsquo;t get me wrong, I actually quite like deduction games and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a> in particular. Lots of people do – there&rsquo;s a lot of positive ratings of this relatively old game, so the strong performance for the recommendation algorithm is partially explained by that.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame316554-stylefont-variant-small-capsdune-imperiuma"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.0)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/316554_hu56e70c39946616a262ba448642ee2ecc_68346_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Dune: Imperium"
	 />

<p>There have been much discussions beforehand if the jury would nominate a franchise game. They obviously did, and to paraphrase the jury&rsquo;s chairman Harald Schrapers, they simply don&rsquo;t care about these things, only if the game is fun. Many people will agree that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a> is – it&rsquo;s currently ranked as the 15th best game of all times on BGG.</p>
<p>Does this make it the favourite to win <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span>? Not necessarily. For starters, it is pretty complex for an award that&rsquo;s meant to take gamers one (and only one!) step further than the typical <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>. There&rsquo;s also some consideration if this combination of deck building and worker placement is too similar to last year&rsquo;s nominee <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a>. I don&rsquo;t think the jury cares - they might&rsquo;ve, if <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Arnak</a> had actually won.</p>
<p>In the end what we have is a fairly complex game with lots of high praises that might be just out of reach for the main award.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame328479-stylefont-variant-small-capsliving-foresta"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 40 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions-part-2/328479_hu70dfef88591deb7e0d4efa019afc5358_375287_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Living Forest"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> has received wider distribution only quite recently, so hasn&rsquo;t gathered too many ratings and is hence not strongly represented in the recommendations yet. But the jury has given almost unanimously <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/living-forest-waldgeister-gegen-waldbrand/">high praises</a>, so don&rsquo;t make the mistake of overlooking this one.</p>
<p>The mixture of deck building and push-your-luck isn&rsquo;t particularly new – it&rsquo;s the same receipe behind <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2018</strong></em></span> winner <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244521" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Quacks of Quedlinburg</a>. But <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> still manages to create its very distinct spin on those ingredients and adds a pleasant dose of player interaction on top of that.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;ve heard many experienced games being somewhat lukewarm on <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> after a game or two. I obviously don&rsquo;t want to deny them their opinions, but I believe some of them aren&rsquo;t quite open to the wonderful journey that the game takes you on as you explore the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> deeper and deeper. During the first game, you might just be happy to draw some cards and build some trees. Then you discover the synergies and create a more efficient engine. Finally, you realise how ever decision you make affects the other players and become fiercely competitive.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;ve played dozens of games on <a href="https://boardgamearena.com/gamepanel?game=livingforest">Board Game Arena</a> and I&rsquo;m still looking forward to many more!</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win-1">Who will win?</h2>
<p>Again, I think it&rsquo;s pretty clear from the above that my money is on <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> to win <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span>. It just hits the sweet spot of a fairly approachable game that offers enough challenges for those who are ready for a bit deeper experience. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a> are clearly very strong games in their own right, but both the jury&rsquo;s and my own enthusiasm quite clearly point towards <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a>.</p>
<p>So it appears that for both awards I picked the nominee the community considers the least likely. We&rsquo;ll know more on July 16. This award ceremony will actually mark the first time it&rsquo;s being held on a Saturday evening and I have the immense honour to be in Berlin for the event. Needless to say, I&rsquo;m very excited about this. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkusRShepherd">Twitter</a> for some live coverage! 😎</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2022 nominations</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/</link>
<pubDate>Tue, 24 May 2022 17:04:17 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p><a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/aktuelle-preistraeger-2022/">Nominations are out</a>! The jury selected a total of fifteen games for their longlist, nine for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and six for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Out of these games, three games each are nominated for the two awards and can hope to get the coveted meeple added to their covers on July 16.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s dive straight into the nominations and recommendations, before we discuss how good (or bad) <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/">my predictions</a> were and if the agreed with our <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</a>.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2022span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/sdj-2022_hu5e3fdd001a190ae36adaf7998bfd8a92_125358_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame295947-stylefont-variant-small-capscascadiaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–45 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.9), 53% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/295947_hu04e55d578b6de23601c41937f2780f66_214784_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cascadia"
	 />

<p>It&rsquo;s probably safe to say this was the most mentioned game for a nomination. The question wasn&rsquo;t so much <em>if</em> <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> would be nominated, but <em>where</em>: our algorithm classified it as a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> (just about, more on this below), but the jury put it on the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> list in the end. The game has been discussed now so much that many consider it the favourite for the win, but I think the competion is very strong.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame291453-stylefont-variant-small-capsscouta"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 15 minutes, 9+ years, light (1.4), 98% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/291453_huc6043064bb7a8bf9432f1ca230259f6d_176736_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="SCOUT"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a> was one of the game I really had to mention because there were some strong reviews, but the algorithm didn&rsquo;t quite pick it up. (It was #39 on my <a href="predictions.csv">predictions list</a>.) Availability seems very patchy and a significant number of commentators could have seen it on the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> list instead, so this getting nominated is still a bit of a surprise in the end.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300905-stylefont-variant-small-capstop-tena"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a></h2>
<p><em>4–9 players, 30 minutes, 14+ years, light (1.1), 98% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/300905_huad40c1b976a285eebab8c45000699f50_94771_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Top Ten"
	 />

<p>While not entirely new in its core concept, the jury&rsquo;s reviews of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a> were so strong that I was the most certain about this one being nominated. There&rsquo;s plenty of people who seem unhappy about the prospect of &ldquo;yet another party game&rdquo; winning <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, but I&rsquo;m sure the jury has a much better insights into what the market craves for than anybody else.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/346703" style="font-variant: small-caps;">7 Wonders: Architects</a>: One of the more expected recommendations. A crowd pleaser without being very exciting or new either.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342207" style="font-variant: small-caps;">echoes: The Dancer</a>: I&rsquo;ve definitely had this series on my radar (if you pardon the pun), but the algorithm put <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342210" style="font-variant: small-caps;">echoes: The Cocktail</a> as the highest bet on #46. By the way: this recommendation &ldquo;proves&rdquo; that the jury doesn&rsquo;t shy away from app assisted games. They care much more about spreading board gaming to wider circles than gatekeeping &ldquo;the pure lore&rdquo;.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/303669" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Magic Rabbit</a>: Every year, the jury has some surprises in store, and this is definitely one of them. According to BGG, it was first released in 2020, and the lack of mentioning it elsewhere meant that our algorithm completely missed it. 🤷 A super quick co-operative deduction game does sound like an intriguing proposition though.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/331571" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My Gold Mine</a>: The other big surprise on the list. It seems on the border to <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span>, which might partially explain why the algorithm placed it only at #49.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/329839" style="font-variant: small-caps;">So Clover!</a>: I even saw this as a candidate for a nomination, so the recommendation is well expected.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/303672" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trek 12: Himalaya</a>: At #15 on the predictions, I&rsquo;d call this a near miss. The jury has given the spotlight to many roll &amp; write games over the year, and it appears this one offers enough new ideas to the genre for a recommendation.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2022span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/ksdj-2022_hu0f3c9f87fd3a7a0e3cb48d0f81b65cf5_115738_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame246784-stylefont-variant-small-capscryptida"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a></h2>
<p><em>3–5 players, 30–50 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 74% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/246784_hu07b869925c3a03ba58a2368c21062dcd_159187_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cryptid"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a> was the #1 candidate for the algorithm, so the nomination does not come as a surprise from that perspective, though deduction games haven&rsquo;t received that much recognition by the jury lately.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame316554-stylefont-variant-small-capsdune-imperiuma"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.0), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/316554_hu56e70c39946616a262ba448642ee2ecc_68346_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Dune: Imperium"
	 />

<p>The possibility of a nomination for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a> was heavily discussed beforehand, but less because of the actual game and more about the question if the jury would give recognition to a game with a strong franchise. Indeed, this hasn&rsquo;t really happened since <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/823" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Lord of the Rings</a> more than two decades ago, so this alone speaks volumes to the quality of this game.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame328479-stylefont-variant-small-capsliving-foresta"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 40 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 77% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-nominations/328479_hu70dfef88591deb7e0d4efa019afc5358_375287_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Living Forest"
	 />

<p>Following the enthusiastic reviews by jury members, anything but a nomination for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> would have been a surprise. As it stands, these praises also make it the early favourite to win <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, but there&rsquo;s still plenty of time until the final decision in July.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a>: As expected, this heavyweight got the &ldquo;<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/251247" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Barrage</a> treatment&rdquo; – a place on the longlist, but the jury made it clear that this game is outside the scope of a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299684" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Khôra: Rise of an Empire</a>: While frequently mentioned by other pundits, our algorithm only gave it outsider chances at #38. The theme seems quite bland, but that never stopped the jury before.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318560" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Witchstone</a>: At #11 on the predictions list, I&rsquo;m going to call this one a <em>very</em> near miss. It&rsquo;s been on many other lists too, so no surprise it got recommended by the jury.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="how-good-were-the-predictions">How good were the predictions?</h1>
<p>This really is a drama in three acts: the decision of <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> or not, the algorithm picking the longlist, and finally my guts picking the shortlist.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspielspan-score"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</h2>
<p>Out of fifteen games on both longlists, our algorithm classified fourteen in agreement with the jury – that&rsquo;s 93% accurate. Only <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> was marked incorrectly as a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, but its score was merely 53%. So really, the algorithm considered this as a coin toss, as did most commentators, so I&rsquo;d say that&rsquo;s a pretty good result for the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score.</p>
<h2 id="longlist">Longlist</h2>
<p>Overall, I called nine out of fifteen games on the longlist correctly, which matches the result of <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/">two years ago</a> and is two short of <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/">last year</a>. Five out of nine correct for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> (four if you don&rsquo;t count <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> on the wrong list, or even only three since <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a> didn&rsquo;t come out of the algorithm) and four out of six for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> is a fine result, but clearly this year was less predictable than last.</p>
<h2 id="shortlist">Shortlist</h2>
<p>Just like the past two years, I predicted four out of six nominations correctly in total – I think 67% accurate is a result to celebrate. Even if you don&rsquo;t count <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a>, 50% is still pretty good and I&rsquo;m glad it worked out fine – when I saw the longlist with its numerous surprises, I was afraid I&rsquo;d be way off this year. 😅</p>
<p>That&rsquo;s it for now, we&rsquo;ll be back in July with a little more in-depth analyses on the six nominees and their chances of winning an award.</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2022 predictions</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/</link>
<pubDate>Mon, 16 May 2022 18:40:51 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span> is around the corner! (Has it really been a year already since we last spoke with each other? 😅) We&rsquo;re blessed with another strong year full of wonderful games that all compete for the most prestigious awards in board gaming. As in the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">previous</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/">years</a>, I&rsquo;ll try to predict what games have the best shot at ending up on the longlist (aka <em>recommendations</em>) and the shortlist (aka <em>nominations</em>) when the jury announces their picks on May 23rd.</p>
<p>Even more so than in previous years, I didn&rsquo;t have much time (thanks, kids 👨👩👧👧), so I&rsquo;ve mostly used the same algorithmic approach as last year. First, I took all eligible<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> games and separated them into two lists: one for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and one for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, depending on their <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</a>.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> Then I ranked those games in a couple of different ways, and finally combined those into the final result:</p>
<ul>
<li>Recommend.Games <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2021&amp;yearMax=2022&amp;excludeOwned=false&amp;playerCount=4&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=120&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=16&amp;playerAgeType=box">recommendation algorithm</a> (50% ranking, 25% score). This has proven to be a powerful and reliable method to capture the jury&rsquo;s taste, but it&rsquo;s slow to recommend new games with few ratings.</li>
<li><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> probability (10%). Similar to the model that calculates the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score, I&rsquo;ve trained a model that tries to predict a game&rsquo;s chances to end up on the jury&rsquo;s longlist. This is particularly designed to unearth candidates with few votes, but it&rsquo;s still rudimentary at this point.</li>
<li>Average BoardGameGeek rating (5%). Let the gamers speak! In order to give new games a chance, we&rsquo;ll take a look at the simple average rating.</li>
<li>Geek score (aka <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">Bayesian average</a>, 5%). This score starts out at 5.5, and gets closer to the actual average the more ratings come in. It&rsquo;s more reliable, but also strongly favours games that have been around for longer and hence gathered more ratings.</li>
<li>Recommend.Games ranking (5%). We introduced a new default ranking on R.G a couple of months ago, which seems to pick up new games shooting up the hotness a little faster than on BGG, so let&rsquo;s give it a shot as part of these predictions. 🤓</li>
</ul>
<p>You can find the <a href="predictions.py">detailed analysis here</a> and <a href="predictions.csv">complete results here</a>. But without further ado, here are the favourite games to win <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2022span">Candidates for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/sdj-2022_hu5e3fdd001a190ae36adaf7998bfd8a92_125358_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame355483-stylefont-variant-small-capsdie-wandelnden-türmea">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/355483" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Die wandelnden Türme</a></h2>
<p><em>2–6 players, 30 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (2.0), 96% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/355483_hufab71b47e93571e4d64c6bb9a30d15a9_87539_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Die wandelnden Türme"
	 />

<p>Well, this is something of a surprise prediction since <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/355483" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Die wandelnden Türme</a> doesn&rsquo;t even have an English title yet and only a handful of ratings on BGG. There must be something about this game if the algorithm could still pick it up amongst the crowd.</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame329839-stylefont-variant-small-capsso-clovera">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/329839" style="font-variant: small-caps;">So Clover!</a></h2>
<p><em>3–6 players, 30 minutes, 10+ years, light (1.1), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/329839_hu74902ad490408f1075b4685fc0bcbfa0_261296_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="So Clover!"
	 />

<p>A cooperative word–association game by publisher Repos Production, in many ways reminiscent of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winner <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/254640" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Just One</a>. The jury generally doesn&rsquo;t mind repeating themselves, so <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/329839" style="font-variant: small-caps;">So Clover!</a> is definitely in the running.</p>
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300905-stylefont-variant-small-capstop-tena">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a></h2>
<p><em>4–9 players, 30 minutes, 14+ years, light (1.1), 98% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/300905_huad40c1b976a285eebab8c45000699f50_94771_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Top Ten"
	 />

<p>Another cooperative party game, light and with an immediate hook – exactly what the jury is looking for.</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame327831-stylefont-variant-small-capslost-cities-roll--writea">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/327831" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Cities: Roll &amp; Write</a></h2>
<p><em>2–5 players, 30 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.1), 97% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/327831_huea4a8b92700f7ed55662177606f0eff0_251562_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Lost Cities: Roll &amp; Write"
	 />

<p>This is an interesting one: While the jury completely ignored the original <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/50" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Cities</a> (now considered a classic), it did pin the main award on <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/34585" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Keltis</a> (essentially the board game version). Will they come back to the same system for the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/327831" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Roll &amp; Write</a> version?</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300753-stylefont-variant-small-capscross-cluesa">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300753" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cross Clues</a></h2>
<p><em>2–6 players, 5–10 minutes, 7+ years, light (1.0), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/300753_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_219313_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cross Clues"
	 />

<p>…and another cooperative word–association party game… I sense a pattern! 😅 Does <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300753" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cross Clues</a> have what it takes to set itself apart from its competitors?</p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame342927-stylefont-variant-small-capsfire--stonea">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342927" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fire &amp; Stone</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 45–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.0), 86% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/342927_hu72f5c1e80eaf946fc24812aa641fe57a_407643_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Fire &amp; Stone"
	 />

<p>The latest game by &ldquo;Mr. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/822" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Carcassonne</a>&rdquo;, so this fact alone makes <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342927" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fire &amp; Stone</a> an interesting game to watch.</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame330174-stylefont-variant-small-capsexplorersa">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330174" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Explorers</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 20 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (1.8), 98% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/330174_hu4d58db29387d666ac15bc6f540d844b1_180304_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Explorers"
	 />

<p>Phil Walker-Harding has built an impressive portfolio of award winning games over the past years, so <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/330174" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Explorers</a> could be his next shot at winning <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame346703-stylefont-variant-small-caps7-wonders-architectsa">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/346703" style="font-variant: small-caps;">7 Wonders: Architects</a></h2>
<p><em>2–7 players, 25 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.4), 99% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/346703_hu79e8c18b9b04e47390421ad390b5fad2_100122_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="7 Wonders: Architects"
	 />

<p>The little sibling of the inaugural <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winner already won the 2022 As d&rsquo;Or, the French equivalent of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, so this is definitely one to watch.</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame328859-stylefont-variant-small-capshula-hooa">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328859" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hula-Hoo!</a></h2>
<p><em>2–6 players, 10–20 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (2.0), 95% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/328859_hu1b35f1d5f86ed62092d258cb7a68015c_477429_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Hula-Hoo!"
	 />

<p>There&rsquo;s been many cute and/or ugly animal themed light games by Jacques Zeimet that were often well received by the jury, so <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328859" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hula-Hoo!</a> could be the next in that line.</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame338628-stylefont-variant-small-capstrailsa">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/338628" style="font-variant: small-caps;">TRAILS</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 20–40 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.8), 93% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/338628_hu6c5e5e5ffe2a050e6ff8318f572176be_62851_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="TRAILS"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266524" style="font-variant: small-caps;">PARKS</a> wasn&rsquo;t as well received in Germany as it was internationally, so maybe its successor <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/338628" style="font-variant: small-caps;">TRAILS</a> will fare better.</p>
<h2 id="my-two-cents">My two cents</h2>
<p>Alrighty, so these were the top ten candidates for a recommendation as determined by our algorithm. As always, I&rsquo;ll add my personal best guess for the three nominees:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/327831" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Cities: Roll &amp; Write</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/329839" style="font-variant: small-caps;">So Clover!</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300905" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Top Ten</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2022span">Candidates for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/ksdj-2022_hu0f3c9f87fd3a7a0e3cb48d0f81b65cf5_115738_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2022"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame246784-stylefont-variant-small-capscryptida">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a></h2>
<p><em>3–5 players, 30–50 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 74% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/246784_hu07b869925c3a03ba58a2368c21062dcd_159187_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cryptid"
	 />

<p>A bit of a latecomer to Germany, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a> already gathered a lot of momentum internationally and hence is an easy recommendation for our algorithm.</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame295947-stylefont-variant-small-capscascadiaa">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–45 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.9), 53% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/295947_hu04e55d578b6de23601c41937f2780f66_214784_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cascadia"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a> is another international favourite that was met with positive reviews, though most find it soothing rather than exciting. Also, it seems to be just on the border between the two awards, so could end up on either list.</p>
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame342942-stylefont-variant-small-capsark-novaa">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 90–150 minutes, 14+ years, medium heavy (3.7), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/342942_hu7a31577c904f821d3bb71789e52c3a6f_1958681_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Ark Nova"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/342942" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ark Nova</a> is <em>the</em> heavy eurogame of the season and has a good shot at a spot on the longlist. It&rsquo;s way too heavy for a nomination though.</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame279537-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-search-for-planet-xa">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/279537" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Search for Planet X</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60 minutes, 13+ years, medium light (2.3), 98% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/279537_hu8f0b1e88f664f972f07d6232fd456c18_100307_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Search for Planet X"
	 />

<p>Just like <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/246784" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cryptid</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/279537" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Search for Planet X</a> is a deduction game that gained a lot of recognition internationally and now could receive its share of fame in Germany.</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame314491-stylefont-variant-small-capsmeadowa">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/314491" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Meadow</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–90 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 97% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/314491_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1949993_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Meadow"
	 />

<p>Another non–controversial game with a soothing animal theme. I don&rsquo;t have more to say about <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/314491" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Meadow</a>.</p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame316554-stylefont-variant-small-capsdune-imperiuma">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 14+ years, medium (3.0), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/316554_hu56e70c39946616a262ba448642ee2ecc_68346_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Dune: Imperium"
	 />

<p>My feeling is that games with a strong franchise generally are somewhat outside the jury&rsquo;s scope: While strongly drawing in the enthusiastic fan base, it leaves the majority of the audience rather distance. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a> might just be the exception to the rule since the reviews were really strong.</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame227224-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-red-cathedrala">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/227224" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Red Cathedral</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 80 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.8), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/227224_hu997eec4bd10704bce5cb3e27c0dcffa7_249538_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Red Cathedral"
	 />

<p>Another game that was available internationally and has recently seen a German release from Kosmos, who certainly know how to win awards with their games.</p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame290236-stylefont-variant-small-capscanvasa">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/290236" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Canvas</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 30 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (1.7), 88% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/290236_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1977784_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Canvas"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/290236" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Canvas</a> definitely has some stunning artwork, though the critical response to the gameplay was rather lackluster…</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame341048-stylefont-variant-small-capsfree-ridea">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/341048" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Free Ride</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 50–90 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.7), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/341048_hu5f0590dfe1e25c5ec96abc5b7d8bd26b_254268_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Free Ride"
	 />

<p>Friedemann Friese&rsquo;s venture into the train game genre. It&rsquo;s been a while since the jury was really excited by one of his creations.</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame328479-stylefont-variant-small-capsliving-foresta">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 40 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 77% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2022-predictions/328479_hu70dfef88591deb7e0d4efa019afc5358_375287_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Living Forest"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a> is the latest <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> hotness. It got quite recently released and hasn&rsquo;t received a lot of ratings yet, but is definitely on the jury&rsquo;s radar.</p>
<h2 id="my-two-cents-1">My two cents</h2>
<p>Same procedure as for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, here are my three top picks for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> nomination:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295947" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cascadia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/316554" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dune: Imperium</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/328479" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Living Forest</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="honourable-mentions">Honourable mentions</h1>
<p>This is always the section where I squeeze in a few more title in order to increase my chance of covering the whole list. There&rsquo;s plenty of strong games I could mention, but I&rsquo;ll restrict myself to two additional candidates for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> that the algorithm just wouldn&rsquo;t quite pick up:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/346482" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Voll verplant</a> (internationally known as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/248861" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Metro X</a>): A simple to learn, yet very difficult to master flip &amp; write subway building game.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291453" style="font-variant: small-caps;">SCOUT</a>: A highly celebrated ladder–climbing game from highly celebrated publisher Oink Games.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>Looking through the list of games, there&rsquo;s two trends I see:</p>
<ol>
<li>Games arriving late to Germany. More so than in previous years, there&rsquo;s plenty of titles with release date 2020 or earlier in the BGG database which have become only available in the past 12 months to the German market. Of course, there&rsquo;s a bias towards these games in the algorithm since they received more ratings than brand new titles, but there might also be some release delays due to the ongoing effects of COVID–19.</li>
<li>Nature. Maybe this is the legacy of smash hit <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266192" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wingspan</a> or maybe it&rsquo;s people looking for comfort. But there are definitely <em>a lot</em> of animals, plants, parks, etc, on the covers of this list.</li>
</ol>
<p>Will the jury agree and follow my predictions? We&rsquo;ll see on Monday, May 23. I can&rsquo;t wait! 🤩</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>As every year, it&rsquo;s not straightforward to determine what games are eligible for the awards. Generally speaking, it&rsquo;d be those games release between April 2021 and March 2022 into German retail. Hence, filtering by BGG release year will exclude games that were released earlier elsewhere, but only recently in Germany, and likewise let some games pass that have not seen a German release in that time window. I did my best to catch what I could, but there&rsquo;s always some that get away.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>I&rsquo;ll trust the algorithm and the scores it outputs blindly. As every year, it&rsquo;ll be an interesting validation of the Kennerspiel score to see whether the jury agrees or not.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Recommend.Games ranking explained</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-ranking/</link>
<pubDate>Tue, 22 Feb 2022 22:02:22 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-ranking/</guid>
<description><p>We have some pretty exciting news! 🤩 Since 2022-02-22, we&rsquo;ve been using a new and improved ranking as the default sorting for our front page at <a href="https://recommend.games/">Recommend.Games</a>.</p>
<p>… What do you mean, you haven&rsquo;t noticed there&rsquo;s a R.G ranking? You know, that thing that&rsquo;s referenced in the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/stats">statistics</a>? … You haven&rsquo;t ever opened that view?!? 😱</p>
<p>OK, let&rsquo;s back up for a second. R.G&rsquo;s primary purpose is a recommendation engine, that is, finding personalised game recommendations based on a user&rsquo;s preferences (in this case as expressed through their <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/">BoardGameGeek</a> ratings). But we want to show some games to the users immediately when they load the start page, before entering their user name. Think of these games as recommendations for… anyone. What games would you recommend to a person if you didn&rsquo;t know anything about their taste? This is the implicit purpose of any &ldquo;Top X entities&rdquo; list. Since this is a recommendation site, we&rsquo;d like to make this claim explicit, so the R.G ranking has always been those &ldquo;recommendations for everyone&rdquo;. What&rsquo;s changed is the way those recommendations are calculated.</p>
<p>Recommendations are based on a technique known as collaborative filtering. Basically, the algorithm tries to learn the users&rsquo; preferences based on their ratings, find users with similar tastes, and then recommend new games that user might like. R.G uses Apple&rsquo;s implementation <a href="https://github.com/apple/turicreate">Turi Create</a> for its recommendations, which does a lot of magic 🪄 under the hood. One of those magic tricks is that it offers recommendations for users it doesn&rsquo;t know anything about. The algorithm treats those users as new and offers some default recommendations that should be a good starting point for anybody, without any particular context. It&rsquo;s exactly those recommendations that R.G has been using for years as our ranking and default sorting.</p>
<p>So, why change this and create a new ranking? There&rsquo;s a number of problems with the old ranking. For one, it&rsquo;s really swingy.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> Seriously, just take a look at the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/history/fac">history</a>:<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p><a href="history_full.png">
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-ranking/history_crop_hu7f8881c2ae59177d1401aee3088d48ad_239973_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Ancient history"
	 />
</a></p>
<p>Maybe more importantly, the exact algorithm to determine those recommendations for new users is extremely obscure. There&rsquo;s been a <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/board-game-recommender/-/issues/38">long-standing ticket</a> to find out what&rsquo;s going on. The answer isn&rsquo;t documented anywhere, but you can find it somewhere in <a href="https://github.com/apple/turicreate/blob/30eced4508bf86c4c59a1fef96bd0b23363db283/src/toolkits/recsys/models/itemcf.cpp#L194">these lines of code</a>. Let me know if you can make sense of them, I&rsquo;ve simply given up at some point.</p>
<p>Instead, I wanted to create a new ranking which I can at least explain. So here goes:</p>
<p><strong>The basic idea is to calculate the recommended games for all users, and then average those rankings. Those averages would become the Recommend.Games rankings.</strong></p>
<p>That sounds simple and intuitive, but, as the saying goes, the devil is in the details. For starters, there are over 100,000 games in the BoardGameGeek database, and <a href="https://twitter.com/recommend_games/status/1498184269402980355">over 400,000 users</a> with at least one rated game. Calculating <em>all recommendations</em> for <em>all users</em> would therefore mean over 40 billion user–game pairs. That&rsquo;s a lot. 😅 But really, we don&rsquo;t care if a game is the 1,000th, 10,000th or 100,000th highest rated game. Instead, we only recommend the top 100 games for each user. The highest game on that list receives 100 points, the next 99, and so on, until the 100th game receives a single point from that user. All other games will be awarded 0 points. The we can simply average those points across all users, and voilà, those scores become the R.G rankings. 🤩</p>
<p>… Except that&rsquo;s still not the whole story. I wasn&rsquo;t happy about the idea of a user who fifteen years ago left a single rating being equally important as someone who played and rated hundreds of board games over two decades of BGG history. That&rsquo;s why I tried to model the &ldquo;trust&rdquo; we should put in different users&rsquo; ratings. The idea here would be that we should trust a user&rsquo;s rating more if two things are true:</p>
<ul>
<li>They are a regular contributor to BGG, i.e., rate, log plays etc at least once a month over a long period of time.</li>
<li>They should rate games with a reasonable distribution, i.e., on a nice bell curve.</li>
</ul>
<p>For the first point we count each calendar month that the user was active on BGG (e.g., rated a game, logged a play, updated their collection). Then we take the logarithm (base 2) of that number – this means the score will rise quite rapidly in the first year of BGG activity, but then flatten out quite quickly. The goal is not to treat newcomers too harshly. Note that \(\log_2 1 = 0\), so new users with only one month of activity will start with zero trust and consequently not be considered in the rankings calculations.</p>
<p>The second point is a little trickier. Mathematically speaking, we want to assess how closely a user&rsquo;s ratings follow a normal distribution. There are a couple of neat statistical tests that do that, the one that&rsquo;s considered best is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapiro%E2%80%93Wilk_test">Shapiro–Wilk test</a>. What we care about is a number between 0 and 1 that somehow measures how much a user&rsquo;s rating distribution resembles a bell. Take, for instance, Tom Vasel&rsquo;s ratings. He clearly users a nice spread for his ratings:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/recommend-games-ranking/tomvasel_hu8122f04d0f9b00836ce5a39d456e5117_119633_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Tom Vasel&#39;s ratings"
	 />

<p>If on the other hand a user only ever rates games with a 10, never any other score, their factor would be 0, and again, they wouldn&rsquo;t take part in the R.G rankings calculations.</p>
<p>So, long story short, we have those two factors that are supposed to describe how much we can trust a user&rsquo;s ratings. We can now multiply them with each other, and the higher the score, the higher will be our trust in their ratings, and consequently, the more weight their &ldquo;vote&rdquo; will have when calculating the R.G ranking.</p>
<p>But before we go there, what users <em>do</em> we trust the most? Many of the highest scores actually belong to pretty random users, so I&rsquo;m not comfortable exposing them here, but it&rsquo;s interesting to compare some of the &ldquo;celebrities&rdquo; in the hobby (and yours truly):</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">User</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Rank</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Trust</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/w%20eric%20martin">W Eric Martin</a> (BGG news)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">21</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.376</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/engelstein">Engelstein</a> (Ludology)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">77</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.227</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/tomvasel">Tomvasel</a> (Dice Tower)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">312</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.009</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/aldie">Aldie</a> (BGG founder)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1889</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.544</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/jameystegmaier">Jameystegmaier</a> (Stonemaier)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">3213</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/jonpurkis">Jonpurkis</a> (Actualol)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">3628</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.296</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/bohnanzar">Bohnanzar</a> (Uwe Rosenberg)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">8801</td>
<td style="text-align:right">5.848</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/markus%20shepherd">Markus Shepherd</a> 🤓</td>
<td style="text-align:right">16207</td>
<td style="text-align:right">5.453</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/quinns">Quinns</a> (SU&amp;SD)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">16958</td>
<td style="text-align:right">5.421</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/phelddagrif">Phelddagrif</a> (Richard Garfield)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">67960</td>
<td style="text-align:right">3.981</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/cephalofair">Cephalofair</a> (Isaac Childres)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">75010</td>
<td style="text-align:right">3.833</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/elizharg">Elizharg</a> (Elizabeth Hargrave)</td>
<td style="text-align:right">108248</td>
<td style="text-align:right">3.156</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>My opinions on board games having more weight than Quintin Smith&rsquo;s sure feels good. 🧐</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>In case you&rsquo;re curious: The reason why the recommendations are so swingy is because they aren&rsquo;t precisely calculated, but merely approximated by an algorithm called <a href="https://recommend.games/#/faq#the-1-game-keeps-changing-cant-you-make-up-your-mind">stochastic gradient descent</a>, which is inherently non-deterministic.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>And this is even a smoothed version of the rankings: It uses the average score of one week to determine the ranking in that plot.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2021 winners</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-winners/</link>
<pubDate>Tue, 27 Jul 2021 00:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-winners/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-winners/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>The cat&rsquo;s out of the bag and the winners <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/spiel-des-jahres-und-kennerspiel-des-jahres-2021-stehen-fest/">have been announced</a>! This article is more than a week overdue, but I&rsquo;ve been on my first trip<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> abroad since, you know… (In a sense that was the first time in a year and a half I <em>wasn&rsquo;t</em> abroad. 🤷) So without further delays, here are the winners of <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>!</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2021span"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-winners/sdj-2021_hu05290c4da6e652367aa01dca4ed97bc5_47382_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame318977-stylefont-variant-small-capsmicromacro-crime-citya"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 15–45 minutes, 10+ years, light (1.1)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-winners/318977_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1030234_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="MicroMacro: Crime City"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> was the favourite for many people, <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/">myself included</a>. From the first day this was announced, it was clear that this game is special. The perfect blend of artwork and gameplay, the immediate access, the whimsical characters and storytelling… As I&rsquo;ve mentioned before, I believe this game will be a great ambassador for the hobby. A deserving winner.</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2021span"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-winners/ksdj-2021_hu382e9ea6f16f1a7a5042837da46fdcb0_45562_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300531-stylefont-variant-small-capspaleoa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.6)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-winners/300531_huc85032f06db4ac6edbe0b59c0ce904bd_86684_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Paleo"
	 />

<p>Within the geek community, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a> was considered the favourite for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> (perhaps unsurprising, given how it shot up the rankings), but for me <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/recommend_games/status/1331118405810786311?s=20">has long been the frontrunner</a>. I&rsquo;ve praised before how important every single turn feels, but how quickly they play regardless. The excitement might wane a little after you&rsquo;ve explored all modules, but the <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterRustemeyer/status/1415003698883928067?s=20">first big expansion has been announced</a>, so there&rsquo;s always something new in the stone ages. 😎</p>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>First of all, my humble brag: I did it again – I called both awards correctly. 😌 In the end, they went to the two games I had in mind for months, but it really wasn&rsquo;t as obvious as it appears since all the nominees were exceptionally strong in my opinion.</p>
<p>As I like to point out, I really try to do these predictions &ldquo;by the numbers&rdquo;, i.e., let data and algorithms speak, not my personal taste. However, in this case, both winners were games that I grabbed and played through as soon as I could get my hands on them. So I feel like I &ldquo;won&rdquo; twice this year: not only did I predict both awards correctly, I also thoroughly enjoyed playing both winners. And I do believe these games will bring a lot of joy to the people who follow the jury&rsquo;s recommendation and buy them for their families and friends.</p>
<p>So long, we&rsquo;ll see each other again for my <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2022</strong></em></span> predictions – hopefully COVID–19 will be nothing but a bad memory by then! 🦠</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>It&rsquo;s weird to think that in a way, for the past 18 months or so, we had nothing to do but sit at home, but still I managed to be on the move during both livestreams last year (in a supermarket) and this (on a playground). I wonder what people where thinking of me when I was commenting and cheering into my phone… 🧐&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2021 predictions – Part 2!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/</link>
<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jul 2021 00:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>It&rsquo;s time! On Monday, July 19, we will finally know which games won <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>. I really think this is an exciting year with six very strong nominees that all have a lot of arguments going for themselves (and a few against). Even after following the whole year releases very closely, I&rsquo;m still torn as to who&rsquo;d be the favourites to win. Algorithms won&rsquo;t be much help here either – the sample is just too small. So I&rsquo;ll have to go with my instincts instead… 🤷</p>
<p><a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/">Last year</a> I manage to call both awards correctly. Quite a bar to clear again.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s check out the nominees!</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2021span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/sdj-2021_hu05290c4da6e652367aa01dca4ed97bc5_47382_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<p>Before we dive into the individual games, let&rsquo;s look at some numbers to see some objective measures for them – as far as this is possible. What we&rsquo;ve got at our disposal are the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2021&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;include=223040,300531,310448,312484,318977,326494&amp;excludeRated=false">recommendations to the <code>S_d_J</code> bot</a>, BoardGameGeek&rsquo;s average rating, and the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">Bayesian rating</a>. Additionally, I&rsquo;ve created a <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2690216/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2021-kennerspiel-des-jahres">poll on BGG</a> where the geeks could have their say:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2021&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;include=310448,318977,326494&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2690216/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2021-kennerspiel-des-jahres">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>6.9</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>61%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Adventures of Robin Hood</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.1</td>
<td style="text-align:right">32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/310448" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Zombie Teenz Evolution</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">2.4</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Overall, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> seems to be favourite, but will it survive our own scrutiny?</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame318977-stylefont-variant-small-capsmicromacro-crime-citya"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 15–45 minutes, 10+ years, light (1.1)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/318977_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1030234_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="MicroMacro: Crime City"
	 />

<p>As has been discussed many times, possibly the greatest strength is the immediacy of this game. Better than no rules required: not even opening the box is required. Genius. Also, the jury emphasises that the winner should be ambassador for the hobby board gaming. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> would definitely broaden many people&rsquo;s perception of what a modern board game can be. On top of that, it also made quite the impression amongst the more hardcore gamers, which shows its universal appeal.</p>
<p>But before we get too excited, there are some important caveats. The crime theme might be the most obvious – murder and other quite mature topics might not be everyone&rsquo;s idea of family entertainment. The publisher certainly struggles with this: my edition says 8+ years on the box, later editions seem to say 12+. They also introduced some form of content warning for the successor, so parents can stay clear of cases that might not be suitable for their offspring. Overall, judging by their statements, the jury seems to have little objections to some comic figures being murdered, so this might not be an obstacle to the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red meeple</strong></em></span> after all.</p>
<p>The other issue is player count. The box claims that this game is for 1 to 4 players, but the jury &ldquo;corrected&rdquo; this in their announcement to 1 to <em>3</em> players. Those who played the game know that sometimes even two players can be a crowd, so this game wouldn&rsquo;t really be one to be enjoyed by the whole family around the Christmas tree – and candles definitely won&rsquo;t provide enough light to read the details off that giant map… 🕯</p>
<p>Let me take this opportunity to address the &ldquo;it&rsquo;s not a game, it&rsquo;s a puzzle&rdquo; faction. First off, even if this were true, the jury clearly wouldn&rsquo;t care: Already in their second year, in 1980, they awarded a special prize for the Rubik&rsquo;s Cube, which undoubtably is a solitaire puzzle. An experience someone who loves games would enjoy? Bring it on…</p>
<p>Still, I&rsquo;d like to make the argument that this <em>is</em>, in fact, a game. The standard version, where the game asks you to answer one question about the case after another, might present itself as a series of puzzles, with no player decisions to influence the course of the game at all. But I&rsquo;d urge anyone playing this game to quickly switch to the advanced version. There, players are presented with the crime, but are then left alone to investigate the full story on their own. No guiding hand by the game, no feedback if the investigation is complete. The group needs to <em>decide</em> for themselves in what order to investigate the different scenes and when to call it complete. This experience differs crucially from a classic puzzle that gives you unambiguous feedback when it&rsquo;s done.</p>
<p>But then again, it <em>really</em> doesn&rsquo;t matter anyways…</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame326494-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-adventures-of-robin-hooda"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Adventures of Robin Hood</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.7)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/326494_huc78f66ad97a20685e1fe733e97c417ba_217267_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Adventures of Robin Hood"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Robin Hood</a> has been praised for its narrative experience that perfectly blends art, mechanics and storytelling. The classic tale will draw in many people for their childhood memories. Moving around freely on a game board and opening &ldquo;advent calendars&rdquo; along the way just sounds like a lot of fun, and the book looks gorgeous.</p>
<p>Keeping in mind that there is no English edition yet and consequently only very few ratings on BGG, it is actually remarkable how highly our algorithm already rates the game. By all appearances, this is a strong contender.</p>
<p>If there&rsquo;s one drawback, it might be the price point. It retails at around 50€, but will have run its course after a finite number of plays. This might not sit well with the very casual audience the award is aimed at.</p>
<p>Further, it appears the designer chose a pretty traditional set of characters. This might please fans of the original stories, but for my taste I&rsquo;d appreciated the courage for a more diverse representation in 2021. The jury wants to award a game for <em>everyone</em>, so any player should be able to see themselves in the game.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame310448-stylefont-variant-small-capszombie-teenz-evolutiona"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/310448" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Zombie Teenz Evolution</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 15–25 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.3)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/310448_hu2fe4974468916459fd684827ea6a14ff_481756_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Zombie Teenz Evolution"
	 />

<p>There&rsquo;s no way around it, this is the dark horse amongst the nominations. Neither the core mechanics nor the zombie theme seem terribly exciting for hardcore gamers, but for many people that haven&rsquo;t played dozens of zombie games, this is actually surprisingly appealing. The legacy elements promise an interesting and engaging story, and unlike <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Robin Hood</a>, this game has been praised for its diverse cast, including a wheelchair on the cover. I imagine this must mean the world for a lot of kids who feel very empowered by this image.</p>
<p>The numbers don&rsquo;t look very good for this game, but then again, it had just been released and it doesn&rsquo;t really seem to be targeted at BGG&rsquo;s core demographics. But there is a serious obstacle to winning the main award: both the cartoon artwork and the &ldquo;teenz&rdquo; in the title suggest that this is a family game. And while many people will refer to the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red award</strong></em></span> as the &ldquo;family game of the year&rdquo;, the jury will go through great length to avoid this term since, again, the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is meant to be for <em>everyone</em> and that includes groups without children. Pinning the award on what appears to be a game for a young audience might exclude some loyal fans.</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win">Who will win?</h2>
<p>I&rsquo;ve been going back and forth on this – as you can tell, there&rsquo;s pros and cons for each of the nominees. In the end though, my money is on <strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></strong> to win <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>, ahead of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Adventures of Robin Hood</a> on close second, with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/310448" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Zombie Teenz Evolution</a> in a respectable, but slightly more distant third place. The immediate access of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> and potential shift in the perception what a game can be is just too enticing to pass.</p>
<p>Still, any of the potential outcomes on July 19 wouldn&rsquo;t surprise me. It&rsquo;ll be exciting!</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2021span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/ksdj-2021_hu382e9ea6f16f1a7a5042837da46fdcb0_45562_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<p>Let&rsquo;s take a look at the same metrics as above, but for the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> nominees:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2021&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;include=223040,300531,312484&amp;excludeRated=false">R.G</a></th>
<th style="text-align:right">Average</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Bayes</th>
<th style="text-align:right"><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2690216/poll-spiel-des-jahres-2021-kennerspiel-des-jahres">Poll</a></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.8</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.5</td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>8.1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>79%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right"><strong>7.6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align:right">7.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6.8</td>
<td style="text-align:right">16%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>This promises an even closer race – the numbers certainly don&rsquo;t yield any clear favourites. 🤷</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame223040-stylefont-variant-small-capsfantasy-realmsa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a></h2>
<p><em>3–6 players, 20 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (1.7)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/223040_hud044617e8fd0e9546f53b5e78f279fc8_462970_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Fantasy Realms"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a> has been around internationally for some time and has garnered a loyal fanbase, though it failed to make a huge impact so far. Winning <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> could change that.</p>
<p>It certainly has a lot going for itself. A quick card game with lots of winning combinations to be discovered sounds like something the jury always appreciates, in particular since they clearly lean towards simpler games for both awards. The fast playing time and wide player count could make it the ideal &ldquo;step up&rdquo; for those who seeks the next challenge after enjoying a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winner.</p>
<p>There is the issue of its bland theme and artwork. It doesn&rsquo;t have to be a negative though, as a generic setting might just mean lots of people will be open to playing a particular game. In this particular case, the artwork does feel pretty old-fashioned, including some of the more problematic tropes of the genre. When drawing in new gamers, appealing artwork is very important, so I really think this game could be a winner with better artwork.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame312484-stylefont-variant-small-capslost-ruins-of-arnaka"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–120 minutes, 12+ years, medium (2.8)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/312484_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_370584_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Lost Ruins of Arnak"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Arnak</a> certainly is a fan favourite (currently #63 on BGG, and climbing) – choosing this game could make the skeptical crowd on the &lsquo;geek very happy. Probably unsurprisingly, it&rsquo;s also by far the most selected option in the poll. The game does come with a broadly appealing theme, a successful merging of two evergreen mechanics (<em>deck building</em> and <em>worker placement</em>), and great development work that makes playing the game very intuitive.</p>
<p>It <em>is</em> on the pretty heavy side for the award though. There&rsquo;s a lot going on in terms of different tiles, tracks, effects… If a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> is meant to be <em>one</em> step up, this game might really be <em>two</em> steps.</p>
<p>It also seems to draw some lukewarm responses from critics. While the execution of the design is generally praised, it doesn&rsquo;t seem to do anything special. On the other hand, this comes from people who have played hundreds of games and chase that next big innovation, while the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> award is targeted at people who might have never played a worker placement nor deck building game and might really enjoy those mechanics here.</p>
<p>On that note: I&rsquo;ve heard there&rsquo;s another Indiana Jones movie in the making – I smell a branded version of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Arnak</a> soon… 🤠</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300531-stylefont-variant-small-capspaleoa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.6)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions-part-2/300531_huc85032f06db4ac6edbe0b59c0ce904bd_86684_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Paleo"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a> was for me an <a href="https://twitter.com/recommend_games/status/1331118405810786311?s=20">early favourite</a> and hasn&rsquo;t disappointed so far. While it&rsquo;s not exactly a &ldquo;fresh&rdquo; theme, the prehistoric setting hasn&rsquo;t worn out yet, the graphics are clean and inviting and the mammoth on the cover definitely makes we want to explore more. But maybe most importantly the mechanics are the most innovative amongst the nominees – without leaving less experienced players lost. Every turn offers a quick but always interesting decision. As the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> nominees prove, co-operative games are in higher demand than ever, and this one has the whole table involved from the first to the last card in your deck.</p>
<p>As you can tell, I quite enjoyed playing <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a> and think it&rsquo;s very much worthy of the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> trophy. But it&rsquo;s not just my enthusiasm, the critical response was very positive and might get second time designer Peter Rustemeyer&rsquo;s hopes up.</p>
<p>Before we get ahead of ourselves, let&rsquo;s consider what could get in the way of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a>&rsquo;s victory. First off, the often criticised rule book. The jury is <em>very</em> harsh when it comes to judging rule books – rightfully so, as badly written rules are the biggest obstacle in the way of players enjoying a game. But they wouldn&rsquo;t have even <em>recommended</em> <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a> if they thought the rules as printed are too obtuse, so I doubt it&rsquo;s a concern now.</p>
<p>The game is also on the heavier side of what&rsquo;s usually consider for the award, but for me it&rsquo;s about the same complexity as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266192" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wingspan</a> – if anything easier to approach as a co-operative campaign game. Talking of which, the different modules and levels make it feel somewhat finite, but then again the levels are fairly replayable and the jury doesn&rsquo;t seem to mind too much anyways.</p>
<p>One last sticking point might be player count. It&rsquo;s well compatible with usual <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> metrics <em>as printed on the box</em>, but the rules start by saying that under no circumstances should you try this game for the first time with four players. That first play is really critical for a game that&rsquo;s supposed to reach a wide audience, so this caveat could prove costly.</p>
<h2 id="who-will-win-1">Who will win?</h2>
<p>I&rsquo;ll contradict the BGG crowd and say that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Arnak</a> has the lowest chance of winning <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> – despite all its quality there seems to be no &ldquo;hook&rdquo; that would draw new players in. On the other hand, judging by the jury&rsquo;s statements, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a> would make a fabulous winner – if it came with a fresher, more appealing look… So, after all my praises, it&rsquo;s no surprise <strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></strong> is my favourite to win <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>. However, I really do believe that all three nominees are very strong and have a realistic chance of winning.</p>
<p>That&rsquo;s all for now – I feel like I need to apologise since it took me over two thousand words just to express &ldquo;they&rsquo;re all pretty good…&rdquo; 🤷 Anyways, all this makes me just more excited for the announcement on July 19. 🤓</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2021 nominations</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/</link>
<pubDate>Tue, 18 May 2021 23:25:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p><a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/aktuelle-preistraeger-2021/">Nominations are out</a>! The jury selected a total of fifteen games for their longlist, eight for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and seven for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Out of these games, three games each are nominated for both awards and can hope to get the coveted meeple added to their covers on July 19.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s dive straight into the nominations and recommendations, before we discuss how good (or bad) <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/">my predictions</a> were and if the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</a> is any good.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2021span">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/sdj-2021_hu05290c4da6e652367aa01dca4ed97bc5_47382_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame318977-stylefont-variant-small-capsmicromacro-crime-citya"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 15–45 minutes, 10+ years, light (1.1)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/318977_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1030234_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="MicroMacro: Crime City"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> was a strong favourite of many pundits, so it is no surprise to see it nominated. The proposition of jumping straight into the game – before even unwrapping the box – is clearly something the jury values highly.</p>
<p>Kudos also to the publisher for timing the <a href="https://twitter.com/spielwiese/status/1394285352660176898?s=20">announcement</a> of the sequel <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/338834" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Full House</a> perfectly! Interestingly, the next installment will include a form of content warning that should enable parents to decide if a particular case is suitable for their children. This system might remove the main obstacle for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> to claim <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame326494-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-adventures-of-robin-hooda"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Adventures of Robin Hood</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.7)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/326494_huc78f66ad97a20685e1fe733e97c417ba_217267_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Adventures of Robin Hood"
	 />

<p>Another game that was on everybody&rsquo;s mind. It looks as though <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=11825">Michael Menzel</a> managed to capture the essence of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/127398" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Andor</a>&rsquo;s narrative game experience with a system simple enough for the <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red award</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame310448-stylefont-variant-small-capszombie-teenz-evolutiona"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/310448" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Zombie Teenz Evolution</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 15–25 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.3)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/310448_hu2fe4974468916459fd684827ea6a14ff_481756_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Zombie Teenz Evolution"
	 />

<p>This game completely eluded me (as pretty much everybody else) – our algorithm placed it in 345th position. 😳 In all fairness, it received very few ratings so far. Further, its younger target audience is not well represented in BoardGameGeek&rsquo;s user base, so the algorithm struggles to pick up the signal amongst the noise.</p>
<p>Looking at the three nominations it&rsquo;s worth noticing that they are all co-operative. While it may seem plausible that people seek a bonding experience while they&rsquo;re locked inside due to a raging pandemic, these games have of course been in the development for years. Generally, co-operatives have been on the rise for years now, so those three nominations shouldn&rsquo;t come as a surprise, but the natural crescendo of a long term trend.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318195" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Biss 20</a>: This one was at least #30 on the predictions list. Another light co-operative game, very much in keeping with this year&rsquo;s theme!</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/267378" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Chakra</a>: Completely missed this one – BGG&rsquo;s release year is 2019, but the German edition just came out, so it slipped under my radar.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274960" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Point Salad</a>: Sometimes, when I see a game, I get the immediate impression: &ldquo;This is <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> material!&rdquo; <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274960" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Point Salad</a> was one of these games…</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/317311" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Switch &amp; Signal</a>: I even had this one down as a nomination – for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Another co-operative, of course.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/322039" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Key: Sabotage at Lucky Llama Land</a>: I had its two other cousins on my nominations list who have more ratings and hence are much more visible to the recommender. I&rsquo;d like to learn the jury&rsquo;s reasoning for picking this game in particular out of a series of three. (And counting?) 🤷</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2021span">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/ksdj-2021_hu382e9ea6f16f1a7a5042837da46fdcb0_45562_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame223040-stylefont-variant-small-capsfantasy-realmsa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a></h2>
<p><em>3–6 players, 20 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (1.7)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/223040_hud044617e8fd0e9546f53b5e78f279fc8_462970_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Fantasy Realms"
	 />

<p>Our algorithm was 100% sure <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a> wasn&rsquo;t a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. 😅 (More on that below.) After publishing my predictions, I read more praise by jury members, and realised how well it suits their criteria, so in the end it wasn&rsquo;t a surprise to see it nominated – just on this particular list.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame312484-stylefont-variant-small-capslost-ruins-of-arnaka"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–120 minutes, 12+ years, medium (2.8)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/312484_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_370584_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Lost Ruins of Arnak"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a> has already made its way into the BGG&rsquo;s top 100, and the jury clearly agrees with this assessment. While it&rsquo;s quite heavy for one of the awards, it&rsquo;s still lighter than some previous winners (though that hasn&rsquo;t happened since 2013&rsquo;s <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/127398" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Andor</a>), so don&rsquo;t write if off just yet.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300531-stylefont-variant-small-capspaleoa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.6)</em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-nominations/300531_huc85032f06db4ac6edbe0b59c0ce904bd_86684_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Paleo"
	 />

<p>Not to brag, but I called this one <a href="https://twitter.com/recommend_games/status/1331118405810786311?s=20">months ago</a>. 🧐 The jury did complain about many rule books this year not being properly tested, and while they didn&rsquo;t mention <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a> specifically, after all the discussions before the announcements that one was clearly on their mind. In the end, the game&rsquo;s strengths clearly outweight those obstacles.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/191189" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Aeon&rsquo;s End</a>: This game has been around for some time and earned itself a strong fan base, so a recommendation by the jury was a fairly safe bet.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/251247" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Barrage</a>: Definitely on the <em>very</em> heavy side even for a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, yet <a href="https://rezensionen-fuer-millionen.blogspot.com/2021/02/wasserkraft.html">Udo Bartsch&rsquo;s high praises</a> left no doubt about a recommendation.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion</a>: Similar to the previous entry, I had a good feeling about a recommendation, but didn&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;d be actually considered for the award.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291859" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Riftforce</a>: I completely missed this one, as did the algorithm, placing it at position 81. At least it classified it correctly as a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> – with 51% confidence. 😰 The only pure two-player-game on either list, this proves how hard it is for lower player counts, even during a pandemic induced shortage of playmates.</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="how-good-were-the-predictions">How good were the predictions?</h1>
<p>This really is a drama in three acts: the decision of <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> or not, the algorithm picking the longlist, and finally my guts picking the shortlist.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspielspan-score"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</h2>
<p>When I introduced the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</a> a couple of months ago, I didn&rsquo;t really have a good validation set to evaluate my model against. Now I do!</p>
<p>Out of the fifteen games on the longlist, the algorithm classified thirteen correctly. One was predicted wrong on either side of the line: The model saw <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a> as a <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/317311" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Switch &amp; Signal</a> as a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, but the jury saw it reversed. 87% accuracy is actually pretty decent for such a simple model trained on a small dataset, but it&rsquo;s still a nagging feeling just how far off the score for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a> was.</p>
<p>Anyways, <em>we live and we learn</em>, and the model has already been updated with the jury&rsquo;s latest decisions, so hopefully next year it&rsquo;ll work even better!</p>
<h2 id="longlist">Longlist</h2>
<p>I called eleven out of fifteen overall, with five out of eight for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and six out of seven for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. I reward myself a point for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/322039" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Key: Sabotage at Lucky Llama Land</a> as I always treated them as a series. 🔑 Likewise I consider <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/191189" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Aeon&rsquo;s End</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/251247" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Barrage</a>, and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a> as hits. Feel free to disagree.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;d say this really is a satifying result. <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/">Last year</a>, I only called nine out of fifteen games on the longlists, so my approach is definitely moving into the right direction.</p>
<h2 id="shortlist">Shortlist</h2>
<p>Two out of three for both awards dead on, another game at least predicted for a recommendation – that&rsquo;s not too bad. 🧐 I will not deny that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/310448" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Zombie Teenz Evolution</a> bothers me though since I hadn&rsquo;t even heard of that before.</p>
<p>Still, this year&rsquo;s outcome sets quite a high benchmark to exceed next year. I&rsquo;ll take the learnings from this year and hopefully will be able to improve my methods even further. 🤓</p>
<p>All that&rsquo;s left to do is waiting. The jury will announce the winners on July 19, we&rsquo;ll be back shortly before that with the favourites for the two awards. 🏆</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Spiel des Jahres 2021 predictions</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/</link>
<pubDate>Fri, 14 May 2021 02:30:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/</guid>
<description>
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/sdj-all_huadd06905d11f3fb99b59b554926b90d9_215760_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres"
	 />

<p>It&rsquo;s our favourite time of the year again: time for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> nominations! On Monday, May 17th, the jury will once again announce their longlist (aka recommendations) and shortlist (aka nominations) for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>. Just like <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">last year</a>, I&rsquo;ll try to produce a list of the most promising games to land on the longlist for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. (I&rsquo;ll promise to get around to <span style="color: #009FE3; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span> predictions <a href="https://twitter.com/recommend_games/status/1373396030616694785?s=20">in a couple of years</a>.)</p>
<p>Unlike last year, I won&rsquo;t use hard filters though to distinguish between <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>anthracite</strong></em></span> games, but will rely on the <strong><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score</strong> I developed <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/">a couple of months back</a>. This model tries to predict if a game is a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> or not based on some key features, like complexity, play time, age recommendations and game type. The jury&rsquo;s decision this year what list a game belongs to will be the first actual test for that model too, so let&rsquo;s hope it actually made sense! 🤞</p>
<p>Even more so than the previous year, I&rsquo;ll take an algorithmic approach. That is, I do not follow my own taste or gut feelings, but I let the numbers talk. First, I took all eligible games<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> and separated them into two lists: one for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and one for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, depending on their <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score. Then I ranked those games in a couple of different ways, and finally combined those into the final result:</p>
<ul>
<li>Sorted by the Recommend.Games <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2020&amp;yearMax=2021&amp;excludeOwned=false&amp;playerCount=4&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=120&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=16&amp;playerAgeType=box">recommendation algorithm</a> (90%). This has proven to be a powerful and reliable method to capture the jury&rsquo;s taste, but it&rsquo;s slow to recommend new games with few ratings.</li>
<li><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> probability (5%). Similar to the model that calculates the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score, I&rsquo;ve trained a model that tries to predict a game&rsquo;s chances to end up on the jury&rsquo;s longlist. This is particularly designed to unearth candidates with few votes, but it&rsquo;s still rudimentary at this point.</li>
<li>Average BoardGameGeek rating (2.5%). Let the gamers speak! In order to give new games a chance, we&rsquo;ll take a look at the simple average rating.</li>
<li>Geek score (aka <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">Bayesian average</a>, 2.5%). This score starts out at 5.5, and gets closer to the actual average the more ratings come in. It&rsquo;s more reliable, but also strongly favours games that have been around for longer and hence gathered more ratings.</li>
</ul>
<p>You can find the <a href="predictions.py">detailed analysis here</a> and <a href="predictions.csv">complete results here</a>. But without further ado, here are the favourite games to win <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahres-2021span">Candidates for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/sdj-2021_hu05290c4da6e652367aa01dca4ed97bc5_47382_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame318977-stylefont-variant-small-capsmicromacro-crime-citya">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 15–45 minutes, 10+ years, light (1.1), 99% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/318977_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1030234_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="MicroMacro: Crime City"
	 />

<p>Some games can be played without reading any rules. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro</a> goes one step further: You can start playing the game right on the box. This alone makes it a strong contender. I wonder though if the jury will consider a game full of murders and crimes a pleasant pastime for families.</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame266524-stylefont-variant-small-capsparksa">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266524" style="font-variant: small-caps;">PARKS</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 88% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/266524_huc0acd639e74304c90b878115a82c972c_583039_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="PARKS"
	 />

<p>Something of a latecomer to Germany, the looks and theme of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266524" style="font-variant: small-caps;">PARKS</a> are somewhat reminiscent of the previous <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> winner <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266192" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wingspan</a>. Will this work to its advantage?</p>
<!-- ## #3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/276498" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paris: La Cité de la Lumière</a>

*2 players, 30 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (2.1), 96% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;">***Spiel***</span>*


<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/276498_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1377224_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Paris: La Cité de la Lumière"
	 />


While the algorithm ranks this highly, I still do not see a pure 2-player-game win the main award. A place on the recommendation list on the other hand is always possible. -->
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame256788-stylefont-variant-small-capsdetective-cluba">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/256788" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Detective Club</a></h2>
<p><em>4–8 players, 45 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.2), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/256788_hufc6c6ec20f92acdf9d5df15780528ab7_507419_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Detective Club"
	 />

<p>Light and social, just like the jury likes their <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>red games</strong></em></span>. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/256788" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Detective Club</a> requires at least four players though, and the jury generally wants three players as well.</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame223040-stylefont-variant-small-capsfantasy-realmsa">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fantasy Realms</a></h2>
<p><em>3–6 players, 20 minutes, 14+ years, medium light (1.7), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/223040_hud044617e8fd0e9546f53b5e78f279fc8_462970_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Fantasy Realms"
	 />

<p>Quite an old game by international standards, but it garnered its share of positive review. A breezy card game might just be what the jury is looking for!</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300327-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-castles-of-tuscanya">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300327" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Castles of Tuscany</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 45–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 89% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/300327_hu12a0304a2bcbe74411d3f9dfb05688c0_278226_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Castles of Tuscany"
	 />

<p>There&rsquo;s no doubt that the jury is a fan of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=4958">Stefan Feld</a>&rsquo;s work. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300327" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Castles of Tuscany</a> could earn him his first <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> nomination.</p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame274960-stylefont-variant-small-capspoint-salada">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274960" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Point Salad</a></h2>
<p><em>2–6 players, 15–30 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.2), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/274960_hub9953d19963a89c991228b81af29aba0_191736_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Point Salad"
	 />

<p>By all accounts, this seems to be a light and fun card game that could well be in the jury&rsquo;s wheelhouse. I love the self-ironic title, but will the average gamer get the joke?</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame283864-stylefont-variant-small-capstrails-of-tucanaa">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283864" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trails of Tucana</a></h2>
<p><em>1–8 players, 15 minutes, 8+ years, light (1.3), 100% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/283864_hu77819644fd0299a6139110eb0c579ea5_151719_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Trails of Tucana"
	 />

<p>Yet another simple roll/flip&rsquo;n&rsquo;write. It reminds me a lot of last year&rsquo;s <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/270673" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Silver &amp; Gold</a> which I had high hopes for, but was completely ignored by the jury. Might not be the best omen for <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283864" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trails of Tucana</a>.</p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame299172-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-key-murder-at-the-oakdale-cluba--a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame299171-stylefont-variant-small-capstheft-at-cliffrock-villaa">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299172" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Key: Murder at the Oakdale Club</a> &amp; <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299171" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Theft at Cliffrock Villa</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 15–20 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (2.0), 99% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/299172_hu26145297907ba764d40b949085597d29_182818_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Key: Murder at the Oakdale Club"
	 />

<p>One year after his smash hit <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=45563">Thomas Sing</a> might reach for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> this time. A real-time deduction game sure sounds like a winning combo!</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300877-stylefont-variant-small-capsnew-york-zooa">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300877" style="font-variant: small-caps;">New York Zoo</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.0), 96% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/300877_hub7a172eed62bd03509640813f9a13dce_1125674_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="New York Zoo"
	 />

<p>Another puzzle game by <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=10">Uwe Rosenberg</a>, this time filled to the brim with cute animals. Who could resist this proposition?</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame326494-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-adventures-of-robin-hooda">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Adventures of Robin Hood</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (1.7), 99% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/326494_huc78f66ad97a20685e1fe733e97c417ba_217267_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Adventures of Robin Hood"
	 />

<p>As a very recent release, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Robin Hood</a> doesn&rsquo;t have many ratings yet, so it&rsquo;s hard for the algorithm to pick up. But by all appearances, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?designer=11825">Michael Menzel</a> of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/127398" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Andor</a> fame pulled off another great story game.</p>
<!-- ## #12: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274841" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cóatl</a>

*1–4 players, 30–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.0), 98% <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;">***Spiel***</span>*


<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/274841_huc36e53cc9a6ffabec90765cc068587dc_661870_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Cóatl"
	 />


<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274841" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cóatl</a> -->
<h2 id="my-two-cents">My two cents</h2>
<p>Alright, that&rsquo;s what the algorithms say. But just like last year, I&rsquo;d like to let my guts have some say as well. These are the three games I consider having the best shot at ending up on the jury&rsquo;s shortlist:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></strong></li>
<li><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/326494" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Adventures of Robin Hood</a></strong></li>
<li><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299172" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Key: Murder at the Oakdale Club</a> &amp; <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299171" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Theft at Cliffrock Villa</a></strong></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahres-2021span">Candidates for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/ksdj-2021_hu382e9ea6f16f1a7a5042837da46fdcb0_45562_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021"
	 />

<h2 id="1-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame281259-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-isle-of-catsa">#1: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/281259" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Isle of Cats</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–90 minutes, 8+ years, medium light (2.3), 94% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/281259_hu25e19462e20600fc6469abdd13405d01_394440_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Isle of Cats"
	 />

<p>The Internet loves cats, and, apparently, so does the BGG crowd. Card drafting and tile laying combined with lots of cats – what&rsquo;s there not to like?</p>
<h2 id="2-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame283155-stylefont-variant-small-capscalicoa">#2: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283155" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Calico</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–45 minutes, 13+ years, medium light (2.2), 62% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/283155_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_306571_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Calico"
	 />

<p>More cats, more puzzling – I sense a theme here. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283155" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Calico</a> is held in high regards as well, even for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> by some. It&rsquo;ll be exciting to see if the jury has it on their list, and, if so, on which.</p>
<h2 id="3-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame312484-stylefont-variant-small-capslost-ruins-of-arnaka">#3: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 30–120 minutes, 12+ years, medium (2.8), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/312484_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_370584_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Lost Ruins of Arnak"
	 />

<p>This game seems to be on everybody&rsquo;s mind, and even though nobody seems excited by it, the consensus is that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a> perfectly executes its combination of deckbuilding and worker placement.</p>
<h2 id="4-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame224517-stylefont-variant-small-capsbrass-birminghama">#4: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 14+ years, medium heavy (3.9), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/224517_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_231720_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Brass: Birmingham"
	 />

<p>Certainly a fan favourite, it climbed to #3 on BGG before it finally received a German release. It&rsquo;s definitely way too heavy to win <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, but that wouldn&rsquo;t stop the jury from recommending it.</p>
<h2 id="5-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame283294-stylefont-variant-small-capsyukon-airwaysa">#5: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283294" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Yukon Airways</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 60–90 minutes, 14+ years, medium (2.7), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/283294_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1235554_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Yukon Airways"
	 />

<p>The only thing on my mind about this game: Would the jury really award a game about flying after we&rsquo;ve been collectively grounded for over a year?</p>
<h2 id="6-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame317311-stylefont-variant-small-capsswitch--signala">#6: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/317311" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Switch &amp; Signal</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 45 minutes, 10+ years, medium light (2.2), 83% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/317311_hud383272a48625eadbf3a21bcab3d8797_227635_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Switch &amp; Signal"
	 />

<p>Train games have a long tradition in board gaming, but <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/317311" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Switch &amp; Signal</a> is the first one I know of to approach the topic co-operatively. Colour me intrigued.</p>
<h2 id="7-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame300531-stylefont-variant-small-capspaleoa">#7: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></h2>
<p><em>1–4 players, 45–60 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.6), 88% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/300531_huc85032f06db4ac6edbe0b59c0ce904bd_86684_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Paleo"
	 />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a> already received so much love for the game, and so much criticism for the rule book. The jury is known to exclude games when they just put an undue burden on the players to learn, but in this case the qualities of the game probably win.</p>
<h2 id="8-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame281075-stylefont-variant-small-capswelcome-to-new-las-vegasa">#8: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/281075" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Welcome to New Las Vegas</a></h2>
<p><em>1–50 players, 35 minutes, 10+ years, medium (2.9), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/281075_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_796199_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Welcome to New Las Vegas"
	 />

<p>The jury ignored the original <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/233867" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Welcome To…</a>, but will it notice this more complex version set in Nevada?</p>
<h2 id="9-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame286096-stylefont-variant-small-capstapestrya">#9: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/286096" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tapestry</a></h2>
<p><em>1–5 players, 90–120 minutes, 12+ years, medium (2.9), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/286096_hu08829497e2f546972599f9b6b8e8e60e_668074_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Tapestry"
	 />

<p>Stonemaier Games sure knows how to put out beautful products, but I think in the case of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/286096" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tapestry</a> the result is just too big and too expensive for a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h2 id="10-a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame282954-stylefont-variant-small-capsparisa">#10: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/282954" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paris</a></h2>
<p><em>2–4 players, 90 minutes, 12+ years, medium (2.7), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span></em></p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/282954_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_106933_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Paris"
	 />

<p>The K&amp;K of board gaming show no signs of slowing down, and their latest brain child <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/282954" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paris</a> has received a lot of love.</p>
<!-- ## #11: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/304420" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Bonfire</a>

*1–4 players, 70–100 minutes, 12+ years, medium heavy (3.6), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;">***Kennerspiel***</span>*


<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/304420_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1597263_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Bonfire"
	 />


<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/304420" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Bonfire</a> -->
<!-- ## #12: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/251247" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Barrage</a>

*1–4 players, 60–120 minutes, 14+ years, medium heavy (4.0), 100% <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;">***Kennerspiel***</span>*


<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/spiel-des-jahres-2021-predictions/251247_hu786a41fff6885072d7d88a6a7e1d3f4d_2474350_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Barrage"
	 />


<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/251247" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Barrage</a> -->
<h2 id="my-two-cents-1">My two cents</h2>
<p>Finally, here are my three top candidates for a spot on the shortlist for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/312484" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Lost Ruins of Arnak</a></strong></li>
<li><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></strong></li>
<li><strong><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/317311" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Switch &amp; Signal</a></strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Again, I think this is another year of fantastic games, so competition for the awards will be fierce. I&rsquo;m certainly looking forward to learning if the jury agrees with my (algorithm&rsquo;s) assessment!</p>
<h1 id="honourable-mentions">Honourable mentions</h1>
<p>Last but not least I want to send you off with a couple of games that didn&rsquo;t make the algorithm&rsquo;s cut, but are still interesting in their own rights and might end up amongst the recommendations:</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-e30613-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/276498" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paris: La Cité de la Lumière</a>: Highly rated by the algorithm, but no chance for the main award as a two-player-game.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295948" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Aqualin</a>: Ditto.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/319114" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Krazy Pix</a>: Not many party games on this list, so here&rsquo;s one.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/302260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Abandon All Artichokes</a>: Such a fresh and unexpected theme, would make a great entry level deckbuilder.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/325555" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cantaloop: Book 1 – Breaking into Prison</a>: Point-and-click adventures as a board game could draw in a lot of new gamers.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/288169" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Fox in the Forest Duet</a>: The competitive version has been recommended last year, so maybe the co-operative version has a chance this year.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4a-text-shadow--1px--1px-0-fff-1px--1px-0-fff--1px-1px-0-fff-1px-1px-0-fffkennerspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/251247" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Barrage</a>: A heavy-weight that might receive a recommendation.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/293014" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nidavellir</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/271324" style="font-variant: small-caps;">It&rsquo;s a Wonderful World</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/301716" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Glasgow</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion</a>: This lighter and more approachable version of BGG&rsquo;s #1 might be a candidate for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/306735" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Under Falling Skies</a>: The jury loves to cover all aspects of gaming, so here&rsquo;s a solo game that received a lot of praises.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283317" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The 7th Continent: Classic Edition</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318983" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Faiyum</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/298069" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cubitos</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/311193" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Anno 1800</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/314040" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 0</a>: The jury has a well-documented love for this series, so it seems unlikely they&rsquo;ll say goodbye silently.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/191189" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Aeon&rsquo;s End</a>: Another <em>very</em> late arrival to Germany. Thematically probably outside the jury&rsquo;s comfort zone, but they do love their deckbuilders and co-ops…</li>
</ul>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>As every year, it&rsquo;s not straightforward to determine what games are eligible for the awards. Generally speaking, it&rsquo;d be those games release between April 2020 and March 2021 into German retail (though because of COVID–19 hitting in March last year we might see a few latecomers this year). Hence, filtering by BGG release year will exclude games that were released earlier elsewhere, but only recently in Germany, and likewise let some games pass that have not seen a German release in that time window. I did my best to catch what I could, but there&rsquo;s always some that get away.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>What makes a Kennerspiel?</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/</link>
<pubDate>Mon, 22 Feb 2021 22:34:57 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/</guid>
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<p><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span> nominations might still be a couple of months away, but I thought now is still a good time to return to one of the harder questions in <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">my predictions post from last year</a>: What exactly makes a game a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>? By that I don&rsquo;t mean the qualities that earn a game the award, but the distinction between the more casual <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and the more complex <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> categories.</p>
<p>This question was particularly pertinent in 2020 when four out of the six nominees for the two adult awards straddled the line between <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers</a>, and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a> could all have landed in either category. Jury member Udo Bartsch wrote a <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/rot-oder-anthrazit-spiele-im-grenzbereich/">very interesting essay</a> about the very topic of this article, giving some insight into the reasoning behind the jury&rsquo;s decision. Basically, the distinction isn&rsquo;t so much about complexity or depth of play, but <em>approachability</em>. How many people can take the hurdles that are in the way before playing a particular game? According to Mr Bartsch, this question doesn&rsquo;t have a simple answer:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Which game is a game for everyone and which is not is unfortunately not recognised by generally applicable, precisely measurable characteristics, but only when playing with as many different people as possible.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Challenge accepted! Who needs humans when we can just deal with data instead? 🤓</p>
<h1 id="lets-look-at-the-data">Let&rsquo;s look at the data</h1>
<p>Since the introduction of <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> in 2011 there were a total of <strong>90</strong> games on the longlist for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <strong>64</strong> games for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span><sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>. It&rsquo;s not a large amount of data to make any inferences on, but we&rsquo;ll try anyways.</p>
<p>The first step is always to familiarise yourself with the task and data at hand. With <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/">BoardGameGeek</a> collecting all sorts of data about games, we know features of those jury recommendations like complexity, player age and count, play time, mechanics, themes, …</p>
<p>Why don&rsquo;t we start simple and plot the games by their complexity (also known as weight) and minimum age?</p>
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<p>You see the jury&rsquo;s favourites of the past decade lining up from simple (left) to complex (right), and from child friendly (bottom) to more mature (top). Unsurprisingly, the red <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> recommendations generally cluster in the bottom left, while the anthracite <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> games tend towards the top right. The dotted line is the one that best<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> separates <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> from <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>.</p>
<p>However, there is some significant overlap. In particular, a lot of games of either award can be found around the 10 year / complexity 2 (medium light) intersect. I&rsquo;ve marked games with squares that fall on the &ldquo;wrong&rdquo; side of the line. Some notable outliers are:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Year</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Complexity</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Age</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Award</th>
<th style="text-align:center">🤔</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/125618" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Libertalia</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2013</td>
<td style="text-align:right">2.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">14+</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>S</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">❌</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244521" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Quacks of Quedlinburg</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2018</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">10+</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">❌</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244522" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Pretty Clever!</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2018</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">8+</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">❌</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1.9</td>
<td style="text-align:right">10+</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">❌</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:right">2.0</td>
<td style="text-align:right">10+</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">❌</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:right">2.1</td>
<td style="text-align:right">10+</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>S</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">❌</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223953" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kitchen Rush</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:right">2.2</td>
<td style="text-align:right">12+</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>S</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:center">❌</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>So by all means, 2020 <em>did</em> contain a lot of games just on the border of the two awards.</p>
<p>Generally, this works pretty well for such a simple model (a linear function in two variables is first semester kind of stuff). But some games seem to really push far into the other side, e.g., <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244522" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Pretty Clever!</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223953" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kitchen Rush</a>. Are there some other characteristics of those games that explain the jury&rsquo;s classification?</p>
<h1 id="can-we-do-better">Can we do better?</h1>
<p>Complexity and minimum age make a pretty powerful pair, but the only reason I picked two features is because we can nicely visualise everything in 2D. I don&rsquo;t know about you, but my brain can only handle three dimensions – on a good day…</p>
<p>Mathematics to the rescue! Higher dimensions pose no challenge to our old friend, and we can throw as many variables at it as we want. So let&rsquo;s add some more features to our model:<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<ul>
<li><em>complexity</em> (weight between 1 and 5),</li>
<li><em>minimum age</em> (between 6 and 16 years),</li>
<li><em>minimum</em> and <em>maximum play time</em> (between 1 minute 🏃 and 3 hours),</li>
<li><em>player count</em> (between 1 and 100 👀 players),</li>
<li><em>cooperative</em> or <em>competitive</em> game,</li>
<li>types (e.g., <em>family</em>, <em>strategy</em>, or <em>party game</em>),</li>
<li>categories (e.g., <em>card</em>, <em>economic</em>, or <em>medieval</em> game), and</li>
<li>mechanics (e.g., <em>hand management</em>, <em>set collection</em>, or <em>worker placement</em>).</li>
</ul>
<p>Using the same set of games, but incorporating all those values, we can go through the same process that produced the separating line in the plot above (multivariate logistic regression, in case you&rsquo;re curious). This time, that dividing line would rather be a <em>hyperplane</em> in high dimensional space, but don&rsquo;t worry about that. In fact, we can do better that just a yes/no classification: We can estimate our <em>confidence</em> that a certain game is in fact a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>.</p>
<p>This model classifies a whooping <strong>150 out of 154 games</strong> correctly as either <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> or <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> – that&rsquo;s <strong>97.4%</strong> accurate. 🤯 So much for not being measurable, Mr Bartsch!</p>
<p>So, let&rsquo;s take a look back at our problem games from before and check how much confidence our model has that the respective game is for connoisseurs:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Year</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Award</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Kennerspiel?</th>
<th style="text-align:center">🤔</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/125618" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Libertalia</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2013</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>S</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:right">91.2%</td>
<td style="text-align:center">🤬</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244521" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Quacks of Quedlinburg</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2018</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:right">65.3%</td>
<td style="text-align:center">✅</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244522" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Pretty Clever!</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2018</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:right">51.8%</td>
<td style="text-align:center">✅</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:right">84.7%</td>
<td style="text-align:center">✅</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>K</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:right">41.7%</td>
<td style="text-align:center">😕</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>S</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:right">36.0%</td>
<td style="text-align:center">✅</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223953" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kitchen Rush</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2020</td>
<td style="text-align:center"><span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>S</strong></em></span></td>
<td style="text-align:right">37.4%</td>
<td style="text-align:center">✅</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>You can find the <a href="results_post_2011.csv">full results list here</a>.</em></p>
<p>This picture certainly has improved, and we&rsquo;re even classifying games like <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244522" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Pretty Clever!</a> (just about) and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223953" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kitchen Rush</a> right that caused us a lot of headaches before. However, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a> still eludes correct classification, and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/125618" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Libertalia</a> is so far off that I&rsquo;d argue the jury simply got that one wrong…</p>
<h1 id="but-how-does-the-model-work">But how does the model work?</h1>
<p>Our model takes the different features of a game as described above as input, multiplies each with a certain weight it learned by looking at all the games from previous year, sums those values up, and then yields a prediction in the form of a confidence (0–100%) score.</p>
<p>To make things a little more concret, let&rsquo;s look at the ten most important features and how they impact the outcome:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/shap_summary.svg"
	alt="Summary of feature importance"
	 />

<p><em>You can find the <a href="shap_summary_full.svg">full plot of all features here</a>.</em></p>
<p>As you can see, the <em>complexity</em> is the most important feature: the higher the value (blue = 1, red = 5), the higher our confidence that the game in question is a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. This makes a lot of sense. Likewise, the next features are equally intuitive: the higher <em>play time</em> and <em>minimum age</em> are, the more likely it is we&rsquo;re dealing with a games for experts. And of course, in a way <em>strategy games</em> are much more frequently found in the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> column. (Here, red means strategy game, blue means not.)</p>
<p>Somewhat more confusing is the player count though. Pay close attention to whether a game is playable with five or six players. Again, red means that game is playable with that head count, while blue means it is not. So a game that is playable with five players is <em>more</em> likely to be a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, while a game for six players is <em>less</em> likely. This certainly is a little confusing, and might well be an artifact of our small sample size. Still, there&rsquo;s a system to this madness: whilst the vast majority of games accomodate three and four players, <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> candidates often either stop at that count to keep components and costs down, or are for a much larger audience anyways and really shine with six, eight, or even more players. A <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> on the other hand can be a little more luxurious, and hence often includes components for a fifth player by default, but their more strategic nature limits the scalability beyond that point.</p>
<p>Lastly, we have some mechanics in the top 10. While it&rsquo;s probably no surprise that solo modes are more common amongst more strategic games, the other mechanics are less intuitive. As it turns out, rolling dice is more prevalent in a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, whilst hand management and worker placement are indicative of a lighter <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>. But of course, all those different features and weights interact with each other in a little more subtle ways and often balance each other out.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s make things more concret and visualise how our model scored some of those difficult to classify games above, starting from <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a>:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/shap_295486.svg"
	alt="My City force plot"
	 />

<p>This so called force plot shows how some values push the score up, while some pull it down. In this case, complexity, strategy, and player count push the score towards <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, while a tile laying game playable in 30 minutes pull it towards <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>. In the sum, our model and the jury agree: this game falls on the red side of the line.</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/shap_244522.svg"
	alt="That&#39;s Pretty Clever! force plot"
	 />

<p>We contrast this with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244522" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Pretty Clever!</a> Again, its play time of 30 minutes with players from 8 years old smell like a lighter game, but soloable dice rolling clearly push the needle (very narrowly) over the line of a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>.</p>
<p>In the end, our evidence is a little thin – even after a decade of <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> winners and nominees, the patterns aren&rsquo;t very clear, and of course the jury&rsquo;s fickle opinion might drift over time as well. So while I&rsquo;m pretty confident in the predictions our model makes, they still need to be taken with a grain of salt.</p>
<p>&ldquo;Not so fast!&rdquo;, you might say. &ldquo;Aren&rsquo;t you simply overfitting here?&rdquo; Why, yes, you&rsquo;re right. The dataset is so small that there&rsquo;s a high risk of fine tuning the model too much for the data we&rsquo;re seeing. And of course, it&rsquo;s <strong>bad bad bad</strong> to assess your model&rsquo;s performance with items it was trained on – that&rsquo;s just cheating. So let&rsquo;s test the model on some games it hadn&rsquo;t seen yet!</p>
<h1 id="what-about-old-games">What about old games?</h1>
<p>Pre-2011 <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners and nominees make a marvellous test set for this model. A lot of those games would be considered a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> by today&rsquo;s standards, so let&rsquo;s find out which ones.</p>
<p>Again, we&rsquo;ll start with the simple model that takes the two input variables <em>complexity</em> and <em>minimum age</em>. We can then plot those 70 games and check what side of the line they fall on:</p>
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<p>We observe a pretty similar spread along those two axes as in the plot above, so apparently the jury covered games of a broad variety already before 2011, but under the single <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> brand.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s dive deeper and check what <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> scores our more complex model assigns to some of the more noteworthy <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners and nominees:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:center">Year</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Kennerspiel?</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/93" style="font-variant: small-caps;">El Grande</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1996</td>
<td style="text-align:right">100.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/2511" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1985</td>
<td style="text-align:right">99.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Catan</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1995</td>
<td style="text-align:right">99.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/54" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tikal</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">1999</td>
<td style="text-align:right">96.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/36218" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dominion</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2009</td>
<td style="text-align:right">87.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/21790" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Thurn and Taxis</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2006</td>
<td style="text-align:right">77.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2009</td>
<td style="text-align:right">69.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/6249" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Alhambra</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2003</td>
<td style="text-align:right">24.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/9209" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2004</td>
<td style="text-align:right">12.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/822" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Carcassonne</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2001</td>
<td style="text-align:right">8.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/39856" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dixit</a></td>
<td style="text-align:center">2010</td>
<td style="text-align:right">0.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<!-- | <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/3076" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Puerto Rico</a> | 2002 | 100.0% |
| <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/34635" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Stone Age</a> | 2008 | 99.5% |
| <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/88" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Torres</a> | 2000 | 97.9% |
| <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Citadels</a> | 2000 | 95.3% |
| <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/9217" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Saint Petersburg</a> | 2004 | 94.5% |
| <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/37380" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age</a> | 2010 | 90.7% |
| <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30869" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Thebes</a> | 2007 | 21.5% |
| <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/9674" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ingenious</a> | 2004 | 5.4% | -->
<p><em>You can find the <a href="results_pre_2011.csv">full results list here</a>.</em></p>
<p>On the one hand, it&rsquo;s weird to see games like <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Catan</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/30549" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic</a> so firmly in the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> column when they are considered some of the quintessential modern gateway games. On the other hand, their complexity clearly does exceed by far what the jury demands of the average gamer these days. It&rsquo;s also worth observing that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/13" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Catan</a> did pave the way for some pretty complex games in the second half of the 90s, when the <em>euro revolution</em> was in full swing.</p>
<p>As far as validating the model goes: I&rsquo;d agree with every single one of the model&rsquo;s assessments, though I&rsquo;m a little surprised that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Citadels</a> got a score of 95.3%. I see good reasons for putting this one into the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> camp, but would do so with far more uncertainty.</p>
<p>Overall, according to our model, <strong>9 out of 32</strong> <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners between 1979 and 2010 should really be considered a <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> now. I wonder how many people trusted the red meeple, bought what they thought to be a welcoming game, only to get frustrated by 12 densely filled A4 pages<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup> of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/93" style="font-variant: small-caps;">El Grande</a> rules? Or did people really have much longer attention spans in the pre-smartphone era? We might never know…</p>
<!-- 
<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/shap_30549.svg"
	alt="Pandemic force plot"
	 />



<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/what-makes-kennerspiel/shap_6249.svg"
	alt="Alhambra force plot"
	 />
 -->
<h1 id="kenner-spiel-des-jahres-2021">(Kenner-)Spiel des Jahres 2021</h1>
<p>I&rsquo;ll send you off with a teaser for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>. I&rsquo;ve taken some of the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?for=S_d_J&amp;yearMin=2020&amp;yearMax=2021&amp;excludeOwned=false&amp;playerCount=4&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=120&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=16&amp;playerAgeType=box">hottest contenders for the 2021 awards</a> (as of the time of writing), and sort them by their <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> score for your convenience.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left">Game</th>
<th style="text-align:right">Kennerspiel?</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">100.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318553" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Rajas of the Ganges: The Dice Charmers</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">80.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300531" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paleo</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">77.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300877" style="font-variant: small-caps;">New York Zoo</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">63.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/300327" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Castles of Tuscany</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">39.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/297895" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Divvy Dice</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">4.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/301767" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mysterium Park</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/318977" style="font-variant: small-caps;">MicroMacro: Crime City</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299171" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Key: Raub in der Cliffrock Villa</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/319114" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Krazy Pix</a></td>
<td style="text-align:right">0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>I think this makes a pretty interesting early list of six candidates for <span style="color: #E30613; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span> and four candidates for <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>, don&rsquo;t you think? Stay tuned!</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>In 2011, there was no separate recommendation list for the two awards, so I only included the nominees for 2011. I also added the special award winners <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/18602" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Caylus</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/31260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Agricola</a>, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/43528" style="font-variant: small-caps;">World Without End</a>, and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/221107" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 2</a> to the <span style="color: #193F4A; text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> list.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Using logistic regression with F1–score as target metric. Other definitions of &ldquo;best line&rdquo; of course might yield different results.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>It&rsquo;s worth noticing that some of those values can be unreliable. <em>Complexity</em> and <em>game type</em> depend on user votes which often only a handful of contributors. Even more so, <em>categories</em> and <em>mechanics</em> are quite wonky taxonomies which are frequently applied inconsistently. Finally, <em>player count</em> and <em>age</em> as well as <em>play time</em> are taken from the publishers who do not hesitate to lie about these things if it helps sell their games.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>Yes, I did pull out my old copy and counted. You&rsquo;re welcome. 🤓&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Reverse engineering the BoardGameGeek ranking – Part 2!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/</link>
<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jan 2021 22:24:00 +0200</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/</guid>
<description><p><em>This is the second part of a series explaining and analysing the BoardGameGeek rankings. Read the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">first part here</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/">Last time</a> I left you with the nice result that <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/">BoardGameGeek (BGG)</a> calculates its ranking by taking users&rsquo; ratings for a particular game and then add around <strong>1500-1600 dummy ratings of 5.5</strong>. This so-called <em>geek score</em> is used to sort the games from best (<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a>) to worst (<a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/11901" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tic-Tac-Toe</a>).</p>
<p>One detail however we touched on in passing, but did not resolve, is how that number of dummy ratings develop over time. When the current calculation method was introduced, BGG founder <a href="https://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/103639/new-game-ranking-system">Scott Alden mentioned</a> that this number would be pegged to the number of total ratings, but did not reveal any details. Challenge accepted!</p>
<p>In order to tackle this question, we need to compare that dummy number to the total number of ratings over time. Fortunately, thanks to the scraping done for <a href="https://recommend.games/">Recommend.Games</a>, we have access to the <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2287371/boardgamegeek-games-and-ratings-datasets">BGG games data</a> over the past year or so. Using these snapshots, we observe how the number of games and ratings in the database has grown:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/games.svg"
	alt="Number of games and ratings on BGG over time"
	 />

<p>We can now repeat the exact same calculation we did in the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/#optimisation">previous post</a>: For each point in time, the algorithm searches for the number of dummy ratings that yields an estimated geek score closest to the actual score. Now, we have a bunch of data points that correlate the total number of ratings with the number of dummies used at that time. Here&rsquo;s what it looks like:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/ratings.svg"
	alt="Number of total ratings vs dummy ratings"
	 />

<p>We get a pretty nice straight line – the dashed line in the plot is fitted with linear regression, i.e., the straight line that most closely fits our data. Its formula is:</p>
<p>\[ \textrm{number of dummies} \approx 0.0000997 \cdot \textrm{total number of ratings}. \]</p>
<p>This means that for every rating entered into the BGG database, the number of dummy ratings is increased by 0.0000997. That number might look a bit opaque, but it&rsquo;s actually very easy to interpret once you put the question to its head: How many ratings have to be entered for the number of dummies to increase by 1? You get the answer to that by taking the inverse of that factor, which happens to be about 10,032. This number is way to close to 10,000 to be a coincidence! We can conclude the exact formula for the number of dummy ratings:</p>
<p>\[ \textrm{number of dummies} = \frac{\textrm{total number of ratings}}{10\,000}. \]</p>
<p>As of the time of writing, there are 17,287,904 ratings (give or take) in the BGG database, so there will be around 1729 dummy ratings of 5.5 added to the regular ratings.</p>
<p>As the number of BGG users <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2585742/happy-21st-birthday-geek">rises steadily</a>, this number of dummy ratings also keeps increasing. This is part of the reason why older games (particularly those with a newer edition) tend to drop in the rankings. When users stop adding new ratings, a game&rsquo;s average rating more or less freezes. But because more and more dummy votes are added, the geek score decreases every time it gets recalculated, and so the older games drop in the rankings, while the latest hotness gets all the fresh votes, and shoots up to the top.</p>
<p>The circle of hype.</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Reverse engineering the BoardGameGeek ranking</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/</link>
<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 2020 08:42:51 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/</guid>
<description><p><em><strong>TL;DR</strong></em>: <em>BoardGameGeek calculates its ranking by adding around <strong>1500-1600 dummy ratings of 5.5</strong> to the regular users&rsquo; ratings. They called it their geek score, statisticians call it a Bayesian average. We use this knowledge to calculate some <a href="#alternative-rankings">alternative rankings</a>.</em></p>
<p>I often describe <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/">BoardGameGeek (BGG)</a> as &ldquo;the <a href="https://www.imdb.com/">Internet Movie Database (IMDb)</a> for games&rdquo;. Much like its cinematic counterpart, the biggest board game database not only collects all sorts of information obsessively, but also allows users to rate games on a scale from 1 (<em>awful - defies game description</em>) to 10 (<em>outstanding - will always enjoy playing</em>). These ratings are then used to rank games, with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a> occupying the top spot since December 2017.</p>
<p>While BGG founder Scott Alden admitted in a recent interview on the excellent <a href="https://fivegamesfordoomsday.com/2020/07/06/scott-alden/">Five Games For Doomsday</a> podcast that he doesn&rsquo;t care all that much about the rankings, gamers around the world certainly do. They would discuss heatedly any movement in the rankings, question why games <em>X</em> is up there while game <em>Y</em> is missing, and generally criticise the selection for either having <em>too many</em> or <em>not enough</em> recent releases.</p>
<p>Reason enough for me to take a closer look at how the rankings work and some of the maths behind it.</p>
<p>Generally speaking, we want to rank a game higher the better its score is. The first instinct would be to just sum up all the ratings users gave to that particular game, divide by the number of ratings, and rank games from highest to lowest. What I just described would be the <em>arithmetic mean</em> (or just <em>average</em> if you feel less fancy) of the ratings, which is simple and intuitive, but suffers from a sever defect: a game with a single rating of 10 would always sit on top of the ranking, well ahead of much beloved games with thousands of votes that couldn&rsquo;t possibly be all 10s.</p>
<p>The easiest fix is filtering out games with less than a certain number of ratings, say 100.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> That&rsquo;s a decent enough approach, and yields the following top 5 games as of the time of writing:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/261393" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Dungeon Universalis</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/219217" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Arena: The Contest</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/240271" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Core Space</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/209877" style="font-variant: small-caps;">World At War 85: Storming the Gap</a></li>
</ol>
<p>Notably, those are all very recent games with relatively few ratings.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> Some might consider this a feature, not a bug, but when your intention is to create a list of the best board games, you probably do want to give a nod to proven classics, and not just the latest hotness. How to balance out these ends of the spectrum is in the end a choice you have to make, and no matter what it is, People on the Internet™ will not like it.</p>
<p>The way both IMDb and BGG chose to tackle this issue is by essentially not trusting the ratings – at least not too much. The method boils down to assigning a new item in the database (be it movie or game) a predefined average by default, and only gradually trusting the ratings&rsquo; average as thousands and thousands of users have cast their votes. More concretely the rankings are calculated by adding a number of dummy ratings with a chosen average value, say 5.5, to each game&rsquo;s regular ratings. The result is that initially each game will have a score close to 5.5, but as more users rate the game, that score will move closer and closer to the conventional mean.</p>
<p>BGG calls this their <strong>geek score</strong>. Mathematically speaking, it is a <em>Bayesian average</em>, and calculates as follows:</p>
<p>\[ \textrm{geek score} = \frac{\textrm{sum of ratings} + \textrm{number of dummies} \cdot \textrm{dummy value}}{\textrm{number of ratings} + \textrm{number of dummies}}, \]</p>
<p>where <code>sum of ratings</code> can be calculated either by, well, summing up all ratings or via <code>number of ratings</code> ⋅ <code>average rating</code>. Don&rsquo;t worry too much about the details though – <em>adding dummy ratings</em> is really all you need to understand.</p>
<p>OK, so that&rsquo;s the concept, but crucially that&rsquo;s not all the details. You still need to choose <em>how many</em> dummy ratings you want to add and <em>what value</em> they should take. Since People on the Internet™ who disagree with your ranking will try to manipulate it in whatever way they can, sites are usually very cagey about said details. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMDb#Rankings">IMDb used to be more transparent</a>, <a href="https://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/103639/new-game-ranking-system">as was BGG</a>, but now we have to dig a little deeper.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s start from the easier of the two, the value of the dummy ratings. It is commonly chosen to represent some <em>prior mean</em>, i.e., some decent estimate of the rating a new game in the database would have. A frequent choice would be to use the average rating across <em>all</em> games. It&rsquo;s a fair assumption – without further information about a game, we don&rsquo;t know if it&rsquo;s any better or worse than the average game. However, Scott Alden actually gave away the answer in that interview from the beginning: BGG chose the dummy value to be <strong>5.5</strong>. Their rationale is that ratings range from 1 through 10, so 5.5 is the midpoint. Of course, people tend to rather play and rate much more the games they like, and so the average rating is around 7. Opting for the lower value here is part of the design of the ranking: it means a new game would enter the ranking rather at the end of the pack. On the other hand, using the mean as the dummy value means a new game is placed more or less in the middle. It is worth mentioning that IMDb does use the mean (or at least used to), but they only ever publish the top 250 movies, and don&rsquo;t care about the crowd behind.</p>
<p>The other value, the <em>number</em> of dummy ratings, requires more work. Because some of the details and data are unknown, we cannot actually pin down the exact number that BGG is using. Instead, we&rsquo;ll try three different approaches, and compare their results.</p>
<h1 id="formula">Formula</h1>
<p>On the surface, this should be super easy to solve: in the formula above, we know every single value but the number of dummy ratings. BGG publishes the number of ratings, their arithmetic mean, and the &ldquo;geek score&rdquo; or Bayesian average for every game, and we know that the dummy value is 5.5. With a little high school algebra we solve the formula for <em>number of dummies</em>:</p>
<p>\[ \textrm{number of dummies} = \textrm{number of ratings} \cdot \frac{\textrm{average rating} - \textrm{geek score}}{\textrm{geek score} - \textrm{dummy value}} \]</p>
<p>Now we should be able to plug in those values for any given game, say <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/199478" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Flamme Rouge</a>, and get the result. With 10,936 ratings that average 7.562, and a geek score of 7.266, this yield:</p>
<p>\[ \textrm{number of dummies} = 10936 \cdot \frac{7.562 - 7.266}{7.266 - 5.5} \approx 1830. \]</p>
<p>So, there&rsquo;s about 1830 dummy ratings, end of story. Right? Unfortunately, not quite. When computing this formula for different games, the results vary <em>wildly</em>, as you can see from this histogram over the results for the same calculation with other games:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/num_dummies_hist.svg"
	alt="Histogram over the number of dummy ratings calculated by explicit formula"
	 />

<p>And this plot is even cropped, the results vary from -1.4 million to +810 thousand, though some 90% lie within the above range, with a mean of around 1604 and a median of around 1590.</p>
<p>What&rsquo;s going on, why are the results so inconsistent? The problem is the ranking&rsquo;s <em>secret sauce</em>. Both IMDb and BGG stress is that they only consider <em>regular</em> voters for their rankings. That&rsquo;s the most mysterious part of the system as it&rsquo;s the easiest to manipulate, so we&rsquo;ll just have to take their word for it. For this investigation it means that the average rating BGG publishes includes all the ratings, but the geek score might <em>not</em>.</p>
<p>Still, clearly something is happening around the <strong>1600 ratings</strong> mark, so we are at least getting closer to an answer. If exact calculations won&rsquo;t work, maybe we can approximate the correct value instead?</p>
<h1 id="trial--error">Trial &amp; error</h1>
<p>Let&rsquo;s take a step back here. What we&rsquo;re really trying to achieve here is not finding the exact formula for that mysterious &ldquo;geek score&rdquo;, but rather recreate the BGG ranking. That is, we want to find the values in the above formula, such that the resulting ranking matches BGG&rsquo;s ranking as closely as possible. Luckily, statistics has all the tools we need. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spearman%27s_rank_correlation_coefficient">Spearman correlation</a> measures rank correlation – just what we need. This will be 1 if both rankings sort in exactly the same way, 0 if there&rsquo;s no relation, and -1 if they sort exactly the opposite way. Again, don&rsquo;t worry about the details, just trust the maths.</p>
<p>What we can do now is fairly simply and quickly compute the rankings for different number of dummy ratings, and pick the value with the highest Spearman correlation. Without further ado, here are the results:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking/num_dummies_corr.svg"
	alt="Spearman correlation for different number of dummy ratings"
	 />

<p>The best correlation of around 0.996 is achieved with <strong>1488 dummy ratings</strong>. However, it is worth noticing that the changes in the correlation are very, <em>very</em> small throughout the range we examined here (1000 to 2500), so let&rsquo;s dig still a little deeper.</p>
<h1 id="optimisation">Optimisation</h1>
<p>What we have here at hand is actually a classic optimisation task: a real valued function in one unknown (or two if we allow a variable dummy value as well) which we&rsquo;d like to maximise. This is a well-studied field, with many fast and simple implementations that provide us the solution in no time. Unsuprisingly, we get the same result as above: the best possible correlation is 0.996 with around <strong>1488 dummy ratings</strong>.</p>
<p>But since we made it this far, let&rsquo;s take it one step further. So far, we tried to optimise the correlation in order to recreate BGG&rsquo;s ranking. However, we can also try to recreate the actual <em>geek scores</em>. That is, we can look for the number of dummy ratings that will yield the closest to the actual geek score with our calculations. What exactly we mean by &ldquo;closest&rdquo; is up to us to define. A common metric is the <em>mean squared error</em>.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup> It&rsquo;s not worth getting into the maths here either, but the general idea is that we want to punish outliers in our estimates more (qudratically so) the further away they lie from the actual datapoint. Long story short, this yields a minimum for around <strong>1636 dummy ratings</strong>.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s take one last swing and see what happens if we don&rsquo;t fix the dummy value at 5.5 but allow that to be variable as well. This is no problem for the optimisation algorithm and yields the following results:</p>
<ul>
<li>the best correlation with <strong>1942 dummy ratings of 5.554</strong>, and</li>
<li>the least squared error with <strong>1616 dummy ratings of 5.494</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Either of those improvements in the performance metrics are hardly noticable (in fact insible after rounding), but they do confirm nicely a dummy value of 5.5.</p>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>All things consider, we can be confident that BoardGameGeek calculates their rankings by adding around <strong>1500 to 1600 dummy ratings of 5.5</strong> to the regular users&rsquo; ratings. What exactly constitutes a regular user, and what ratings might be discarded due to shilling, remains a well guarded secret though. Note that the number of dummies is pegged to the overall number of ratings, so this is a moving target, and the calculations would change as time passes.</p>
<p>Now I must applaud anybody who actually made it all the way through this pretty dry and technical article. The real reason why I dwelled so much on the ratings, and how they are compressed into the BGG rankings, is to get a feeling of what&rsquo;s going on behind the scenes, what the can express, and what they cannot or even <em>do not try to</em> express. Another major take-away is that any of these decisions are choices that need to be made and that come with certain tradeoffs – like them or not.</p>
<p>In this particular case, I have the feeling that both the Cult of the New™ and connoisseurs of classic games are equally unhappy about the BGG top 100, which one should probably consider a compliment.</p>
<h1 id="alternative-rankings">Alternative rankings</h1>
<p>I&rsquo;ll send you off with some rankings that were obtained by making different choices for the two values that we discussed throughout this article: the number of dummy ratings and their value.</p>
<h2 id="using-the-ratings-average-as-dummy-value">Using the ratings average as dummy value</h2>
<p>I&rsquo;ve mentioned before that the average rating across all games is around 7 – a little<sup id="fnref1:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> more precisely 7.08278. What if we chose that as the dummy rating, but left their number at 1600? The result should be a ranking that is a little friendlier to newer titles with fewer ratings as their score isn&rsquo;t dragged all the way down to 5.5 in the beginning.</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/233078" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Imperium (Fourth Edition)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/55690" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kingdom Death: Monster</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167791" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terraforming Mars</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/220308" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gaia Project</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/182028" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/187645" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Star Wars: Rebellion</a></li>
</ol>
<p>Sure enough, the brand new <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Jaws of the Lion</a> with less than 3000 ratings already shows up in the top 10. The other game that sticks out here is <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/55690" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kingdom Death: Monster</a>. This Kickstarter success story clearly attracted a lot of enthusiasts, but not necessarily the mass.</p>
<h2 id="using-the-top-250-number-of-ratings">Using the top 250 number of ratings</h2>
<p>Just like IMDb publishes only their top 250 movies, we can consider the same and crank up the number of dummy ratings. A good number seems to be the 250th most rated game on BGG, which has been rated 12,014 times. Using BGG&rsquo;s standard dummy value of 5.5, we obtain a ranking that is much more skewed towards proven classics:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167791" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terraforming Mars</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/169786" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Scythe</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/173346" style="font-variant: small-caps;">7 Wonders Duel</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/3076" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Puerto Rico</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/84876" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Castles of Burgundy</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/31260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Agricola</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/120677" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terra Mystica</a></li>
</ol>
<p>The most recent release on this list is <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a>, but we also meet again old BGG #1&rsquo;s: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/3076" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Puerto Rico</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/31260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Agricola</a>.</p>
<h2 id="combining-both">Combining both!</h2>
<p>Finally, let&rsquo;s do what IMDb does (or used to do), and add to each game&rsquo;s ratings 12,014 dummy ratings of 7.08278:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/161936" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pandemic Legacy: Season 1</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167791" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terraforming Mars</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/169786" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Scythe</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12333" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Struggle</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/224517" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Brass: Birmingham</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/182028" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/187645" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Star Wars: Rebellion</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/193738" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Great Western Trail</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/173346" style="font-variant: small-caps;">7 Wonders Duel</a></li>
</ol>
<p>The effects of more, but higher dummy ratings seem to almost cancel each other out. Compared to BGG&rsquo;s actual top 10, only <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/233078" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Twilight Imperium</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/220308" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gaia Project</a> are missing, otherwise this ranking looks very familiar. Turns out, BGG did a pretty good job designing its ranking!</p>
<p><em>Read the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek-ranking-part-2/">second part here</a> where we nail down the number of dummy ratings to the dot.</em></p>
<p><em><strong>PS</strong></em>: You can find the notebook I used to do all the calculations <a href="https://www.kaggle.com/mshepherd/reverse-engineering-the-boardgamegeek-ranking">on Kaggle</a>.</p>
<p><em><strong>PPS</strong></em>: Turns out that <a href="https://godatadriven.com/blog/reverse-engineering-boardgamegeek/">GoDataDriven did almost the same calculation</a> three years ago – even with the same title! Back then, they estimated that BGG added 725 dummy ratings. <a href="https://www.kaggle.com/jorgenieva/bayes-algorithm">Jorge Nieva replicated their analysis</a> with a more recent dataset, which thankfully yielded a very close match to our result: 1594 dummy ratings.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Throughout this article I only considered games with at least 100 ratings, mostly to ensure that the very long tail of games with few ratings won&rsquo;t unduely skew the results. However, most of the calculations would only change in some negligible decimals when including all games.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a>&#160;<a href="#fnref1:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/291457" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Jaws of the Lion</a> is something of an exception here and will undoubtably shoot into the BGG top 10 very soon. In fact, it might be the only game with the potential to unseat <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/174430" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Gloomhaven</a> as the number 1.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>It&rsquo;s probably even more common to use the <em>root</em> mean squared error, but for boring mathematical reasons, it doesn&rsquo;t make a difference when it comes to optimisation. In fact, we could even drop the word <em>mean</em> from our metric and still obtain the same optimal point, so let&rsquo;s not dwell on this.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>And the Spiel des Jahres 2020 goes to… Part 4!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/</link>
<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2020 14:42:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/</guid>
<description><p>After months of waiting, we finally <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/die-gewinner-2020-stehen-fest/">know what games won</a> this year&rsquo;s <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>! Without further ado, I&rsquo;ll present the winners along with a comment on how the predictions went.</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahres-2020span"><span style="color: #E30613;"><em>Spiel des Jahres 2020</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/sdj-2020_huad507e6f34717ce578bd95f63866e0e8_408481_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284108-stylefont-variant-small-capspicturesa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/284108_hu9ca5c167760da58cc5156745c38f4acf_1528579_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Pictures"
	 />

<p>Reading through the comments on the interweb most players seem surprised about the winner of the red meeple. Not me! It was on my list <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">from the very beginning</a> as probably the strongest contender. Despite nominating the fairly complex <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a> along with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a>, in the end the jury went – again – for the super simple and approachable game.</p>
<p>Inevitable, there are those who complain that one year after <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/254640" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Just One</a> there&rsquo;s yet another party game taking home the main award. I really think the BoardGameGeek crowd needs to rethink their definition of a party (and probably why they&rsquo;re never invited to any). Not every &ldquo;light&rdquo; game is automatically a party game, and I believe neither this nor last year&rsquo;s winner would be considered party games by the average gamer. At the end of the day, if you&rsquo;re hanging out on board gaming sites all day long, you&rsquo;re not the target audience of <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. The award is meant to guide people who might purchase one game a year to have a good time with a quick and approachable experience.</p>
<p>By all accounts, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a> seems to fit that description perfectly, so I say congratulations to Daniela and Christian Stöhr for winning the most prestigious award in board gaming with their first (or second) design!</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-193f4akennerspiel-des-jahres-2020span"><span style="color: #193F4A;"><em>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/ksdj-2020_huabbfac70d4d236c608c8474b59f0dafe_404506_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284083-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-crew-the-quest-for-planet-ninea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/284083_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_382666_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine"
	 />

<p>Unlike the winner of the red meeple, virtually everybody agreed that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a> will win an award, though not necessarily <em>which one</em>. I&rsquo;ve discussed at length in the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/">previous</a> <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/">articles</a> why I agree with the jury&rsquo;s classification of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a> as a <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>.</p>
<p>One last thing to mention is that <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a>&rsquo;s predictable win wasn&rsquo;t down to a lack of competition. By all accounts, both <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/245655" style="font-variant: small-caps;">King&rsquo;s Dilemma</a> are highly regarded and would have deserved the award. As gamers, we can be excited that it&rsquo;s not only the quantity of games being released that&rsquo;s rising, but also the quality, throughout the spectrum.</p>
<h1 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h1>
<p>The jury explicitly pointed out the quality of this year&rsquo;s games in all of this hobby&rsquo;s facets. When you look back through the different games discussed in this series, I&rsquo;m sure you&rsquo;ll agree with them, and it&rsquo;ll get you excited for all the games yet to be published.</p>
<p>I certainly had a ton of fun reading reviews, following discussions, crunching numbers, and distilling everything into my predictions. The outcome makes me quite proud and I&rsquo;m already thinking about next year&rsquo;s awards, so be sure to check back in for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span>!</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>And the Spiel des Jahres 2020 goes to… Part 3!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/</link>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2020 10:15:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/</guid>
<description><p><span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners are due to be announced on Monday, July 20. I promised <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/">last time</a> I&rsquo;d be back with more detailed analyses and predictions. So here we go!</p>
<p>Out of hundreds of games published in 2019 and 2020, the jury selected a total of fifteen games they recommend, six of which they nominated for the two main awards. But who is the favourite? Who is the dark horse? Let&rsquo;s find out!</p>
<h1 id="span-stylecolor-e30613spielspan-or-span-stylecolor-193f4akennerspielspan"><span style="color: #E30613;"><em>Spiel</em></span> or <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em>Kennerspiel</em></span>?</h1>
<p>One of the main conclusions of my <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">original article</a> was that <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners tend to be ever lighter and faster. Concretely, no red meeple was pinned on a game whose complexity exceeded <strong>2</strong> on BoardGameGeek&rsquo;s complexity scale (<em>medium light</em>) since 2012, so I drew a hard line and claimed that no game would be nominated if it broke that pattern.</p>
<p>I was wrong.</p>
<p>Out of the six nominees, four could have been nominated for either award. Jury member <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/rot-oder-anthrazit-spiele-im-grenzbereich/">Udo Bartsch wrote an interesting article</a> explaining why the jury decided one way or another. I think the main takeaway is that BGG&rsquo;s complexity rating is just too crude a measure. To their credit, they admit as much and only make a <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/wiki/page/Weight">half-hearted attempt</a> in defining what they even mean by weight or complexity. In essence, the tension lies between how hard it is to <em>learn</em> a game vs how hard it is to <em>master</em> it.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> The ancient game of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/188" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Go</a> provides an excellent example: while the rules are very quickly explained, playing the game <em>well</em> easily fills a lifetime. Consequently, the complexity ratings spread over the whole scale from 1 through 5.</p>
<p>Back in 2020, we still are no closer to quantifying what games qualify for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> or <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. According to Udo Bartsch, it&rsquo;s about the barrier that needs to be taken to immerse oneself in the experience. It&rsquo;s about that <em>Aha!</em> moment when the penny finally drops and the game behind all the cardboard shines through. I&rsquo;m not sure we&rsquo;ll ever find an objective measure for that.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahresspan">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em>Spiel des Jahres</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/sdj-2020_huad507e6f34717ce578bd95f63866e0e8_408481_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<p>I already introduced the nominees in the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/">previous article</a>, along with their characteristics and a brief assessment of their respective chances of winning an award, so here I&rsquo;ll focus on the pros and cons why that game might win the red meeple.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame295486-stylefont-variant-small-capsmy-citya"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/295486_hu1ae5fcb9ebe5110ebe46ae9029865921_222503_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="My City"
	 />

<h3 id="pros">Pros</h3>
<ul>
<li>Reiner Knizia is en vogue again.</li>
<li>Legacy / campaign format allows players to ease into the experience.</li>
<li>Highest average rating on BGG (<strong>7.55</strong>).</li>
<li>Has been consistently highly recommended to the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?yearMin=2019&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;complexityMax=2.5&amp;for=S_d_J"><code>S_d_J</code> bot</a></li>
</ul>
<h3 id="cons">Cons</h3>
<ul>
<li>Still very complex (<strong>2.14</strong>) for a <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</li>
<li>That&rsquo;s it, really…</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284435-stylefont-variant-small-capsnova-lunaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/284435_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_894803_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Nova Luna"
	 />

<h3 id="pros-1">Pros</h3>
<ul>
<li>Uwe Rosenberg has <em>always</em> been en vogue.</li>
<li>The fan favourite so far with the highest geek rating (<strong>6.34</strong>) and leading in <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2457916/poll-predict-2020-winner-spiel-des-jahres-and-kenn">this poll</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="cons-1">Cons</h3>
<ul>
<li>Fairly abstract.</li>
<li>On the heavy side of <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284108-stylefont-variant-small-capspicturesa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/284108_hu9ca5c167760da58cc5156745c38f4acf_1528579_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Pictures"
	 />

<h3 id="pros-2">Pros</h3>
<ul>
<li>Super simple and quick.</li>
<li>Typical <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> material.</li>
<li>Highly recommended to the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?yearMin=2019&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;complexityMax=2.5&amp;for=S_d_J"><code>S_d_J</code> bot</a> <em>sometimes</em> – the recommendations tend to be rather volatile.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="cons-2">Cons</h3>
<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/254640" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Just One</a> we had a somewhat similar winner last year.</li>
<li>In its simplicity, it might not have the same staying power as the other nominees.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="who-will-win">Who will win?</h2>
<p>Honestly, the numbers don&rsquo;t yield any clear favourite. If I had to make a guess, I&rsquo;d still put my money on the quick and simple <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a> ahead of the legacy game <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a>, with the abstract <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a> further behind. But overall, the field really seems open. We&rsquo;ll know more on Monday!</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4akennerspiel-des-jahresspan">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em>Kennerspiel des Jahres</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/ksdj-2020_huabbfac70d4d236c608c8474b59f0dafe_404506_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<p>Same procedure, let&rsquo;s assess each game&rsquo;s chances of winning the award!</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame263918-stylefont-variant-small-capscartographers-a-roll-player-talea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers: A Roll Player Tale</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/263918_hudfa114f90da6f9569a524202244c0da1_5808045_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Cartographers: A Roll Player Tale"
	 />

<h3 id="pros-3">Pros</h3>
<ul>
<li>Roll and write games have been on the rise for some time, with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/131260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Qwixx</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244522" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Pretty Clever</a> receiving nominations.</li>
<li>The highest rated game in the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?yearMin=2019&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;complexityMax=2.5">Recommend.Games ranking</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="cons-3">Cons</h3>
<ul>
<li>It might not have enough meat for a <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> in the end.</li>
<li>While there are lots of positive opinions, none seem to be <em>excited</em>.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284083-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-crew-the-quest-for-planet-ninea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/284083_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_382666_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine"
	 />

<h3 id="pros-4">Pros</h3>
<ul>
<li>Already on its way into the BGG top 100 (#124 at the time of writing).</li>
<li>Consistently and by far the highest recommendation to the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?yearMin=2019&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;complexityMax=2.5&amp;for=S_d_J"><code>S_d_J</code> bot</a>.</li>
<li>Runaway leader in <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2457916/poll-predict-2020-winner-spiel-des-jahres-and-kenn">the poll</a> I quoted above.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="cons-4">Cons</h3>
<ul>
<li>Too obvious choice?</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame245655-stylefont-variant-small-capskings-dilemmaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/245655" style="font-variant: small-caps;">King&rsquo;s Dilemma</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/245655_hudd532c42d9858da6f860467040e2d59b_18754599_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="King&#39;s Dilemma"
	 />

<h3 id="pros-5">Pros</h3>
<ul>
<li>Probably the most innovative game on the list with lots of hype from the community.</li>
<li>Highest average rating on BGG (<strong>8.12</strong>).</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="cons-5">Cons</h3>
<ul>
<li>Can you imagine a game about intrigue and backstabbing being played around the Christmas tree?</li>
<li><em>Very</em> lowly ranked in the recommendations for the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?yearMin=2019&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;complexityMax=2.5&amp;for=S_d_J"><code>S_d_J</code> bot</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="who-will-win-1">Who will win?</h2>
<p>Hands down, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a> is the high favourite, and any other outcome would be a big surprise. This game seems to appeal to reviewers, the community, and the wider market alike. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers</a> just doesn&rsquo;t have the same pull, and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/245655" style="font-variant: small-caps;">King&rsquo;s Dilemma</a> seems too specific for an award that&rsquo;s supposed to reach hundreds of thousands of German <em>average</em> gamers.</p>
<p>I hope you&rsquo;re as excited as I am about Monday&rsquo;s announcements. We&rsquo;ll be back with the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/">final conclusions</a> for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span>!</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>This is one of the many things the BoardGameGeek competitor <a href="https://www.boardgameatlas.com/">Board Game Atlas</a> gets right: they measure both <em>learning</em> and <em>strategy</em> complexity.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>And the Spiel des Jahres 2020 goes to… Part 2!</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2020 18:31:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/</guid>
<description><p>With <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/aktuelle-preistraeger-2020/">nominations out</a> (setting aside the <span style="color: #009FE3;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel</strong></em></span> again), it&rsquo;s time to look at the nominees and to check how I did in <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/">my predictions</a>.</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahresspan">Nominated for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em>Spiel des Jahres</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/sdj-2020_huad507e6f34717ce578bd95f63866e0e8_408481_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<p>As every year, the jury nominated three games for the main award, one of which will receive the red meeple in July. In addition to that, there are six games the jury <em>recommends</em>. Do these games match the criteria I <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/#summary-of-criteria">stipulated last time</a>? Let&rsquo;s see!</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame295486-stylefont-variant-small-capsmy-citya"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/295486_hu1ae5fcb9ebe5110ebe46ae9029865921_222503_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="My City"
	 />

<p>First off, congratulation to Reiner Knizia for the third <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> nomination in four years! Looks like he shows no sign of slowing down…</p>
<p>This title completely slipped under my radar. Not like it wasn&rsquo;t on my mind (sure, <em>anyone</em> can claim that), but its complexity is rated at 2.44, <em>heavier than any of the three <span style="color: #193F4A;"><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></span> nominees</em>. Granted, there aren&rsquo;t all that many votes for many of the nominees yet (9 in this particular case), but even with wider opinions, it seems unlikely to end up under the magical mark of 2 I drew as a hard line for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</p>
<p>Of course, the jury just doesn&rsquo;t take to BoardGameGeek to classify a game for either <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> or <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, but of course draws their own conclusions. Still, it&rsquo;s a notable outlier. How come?</p>
<p>The best explaination I&rsquo;ve got is the game&rsquo;s legacy / campaign format. The advantage this genre has is that it can build up its narrative and unfold the rules as the players progress. This can significantly improve a game&rsquo;s accessibility, which of course is the real feature the jury is after.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284435-stylefont-variant-small-capsnova-lunaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/284435_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_894803_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Nova Luna"
	 />

<p>This one was on my shortlist, albeit for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. Its complexity is just short of 2, so it did technically meet that criterion, but the jury&rsquo;s draw towards the <em>very</em> light games put <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a> rather outside the sphere of <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> for me. Further, the maximum playing time is stated at 60 minutes, another break of pattern. As I mentioned before, the jury <em>hates</em> to be predictable…</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284108-stylefont-variant-small-capspicturesa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/284108_hu9ca5c167760da58cc5156745c38f4acf_1528579_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Pictures"
	 />

<p>The one nominee for the main award I got dead right. Everything about this game looks and feels like a typical <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. For these reasons and the rather unusual competitors, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a> should be an early favourite to take home the coveted red meeple.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #E30613;"><em>Spiel des Jahres</em></span> recommendations</h2>
<p>In addition to the three nominees, there&rsquo;s also six games on the jury&rsquo;s long list or recommendation list.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/223742" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Colour Brain</a>: One of those latecomers to Germany, it doesn&rsquo;t seem to have had an impact outside of it <em>either</em>…</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/221965" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Fox in the Forest</a>: Another latecomer, yet I&rsquo;m annoyed at myself for missing it since there&rsquo;s been some excellent reviews by jury members. The only two-player-game mentioned, as expected.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/264055" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Draftosaurus</a>: As predicted recommended, but not nominated.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/241266" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Little Town</a>: Another latecomer, another game above the medium light complexity. Maybe the jury <em>does</em> want to highlight more complex games this year, who knows…</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/287938" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kitchen Rush</a>: I called this one, but again for the wrong award due to its complexity. I&rsquo;ll admit I was a little surprised to see it on the list in the end as there were some pretty negative reviews by some jury members.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/299169" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Spicy</a>: What&rsquo;s going on with this game&rsquo;s complexity rating? Is it an <em>easy to learn, hard to master</em> situation that makes this a <em>light</em> game for two thirds, and a <em>heavy</em> game for the other third of the players? Or is it trolling?</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="how-good-were-the-predictions">How good were the predictions?</h2>
<p>Time to compare the predictions with reality! As mentioned, I called two out of three nominations, though one for the wrong award. Depending on how strict you are, this makes for a 50% or even 66% success rate, which I am really proud of, given the jury&rsquo;s infamous unpredictability.</p>
<p>However, when looking at the long list of nominations plus recommendations, I only called four out of its nine titles (two of them on the wrong list). I&rsquo;ll try better next year…</p>
<h1 id="nominated-for-span-stylecolor-193f4akennerspiel-des-jahresspan">Nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em>Kennerspiel des Jahres</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/ksdj-2020_huabbfac70d4d236c608c8474b59f0dafe_404506_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<p>Again, there&rsquo;s three nominations, along with three recommendations, so we&rsquo;ll take a look at each of them.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame263918-stylefont-variant-small-capscartographers-a-roll-player-talea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers: A Roll Player Tale</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/263918_hudfa114f90da6f9569a524202244c0da1_5808045_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Cartographers: A Roll Player Tale"
	 />

<p>Another correctly called, but incorrectly classified. I very much had <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers</a> as &ldquo;probably nominated, but dunno what list&rdquo;, so it ended up nominated for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. I cannot offer any insights as to why it is a <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> with a complexity of 1.9, while <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a> at 2.0 and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a> at 2.4 are on the <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span> list.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284083-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-crew-the-quest-for-planet-ninea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/284083_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_382666_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine"
	 />

<p>While I was confident about the nomination for this one, I had some doubts about the classification as <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. Its complexity says so, but then again this metric doesn&rsquo;t seem to predict the jury&rsquo;s classification very well. Also, as a campaign game it can ease the player into the game (cf <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/295486" style="font-variant: small-caps;">My City</a>), and traditional trick-taking games are <em>very</em> common in Germany, the land of <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/6819" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Skat</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/9364" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Doppelkopf</a>, so I might have been wrong again. As it stands, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew</a> seems to be the favourite to win <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h2 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame245655-stylefont-variant-small-capskings-dilemmaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/245655" style="font-variant: small-caps;">King&rsquo;s Dilemma</a></h2>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/245655_hudd532c42d9858da6f860467040e2d59b_18754599_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="King&#39;s Dilemma"
	 />

<p>I&rsquo;ll be honest, I&rsquo;m probably more excited about this nomination that any other, and the community seems to agree, judging by their reactions. I kinda excluded <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/245655" style="font-variant: small-caps;">King&rsquo;s Dilemma</a> for no good reason other than having a high age recommendation (and even higher when asking the community). It&rsquo;s great to see a more demanding game on the list, but I will say that the jury nominated (relative) heavyweights like <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/227789" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Heaven &amp; Ale</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/167791" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terraforming Mars</a> in the past, but didn&rsquo;t give them the award in the end, so I&rsquo;d think this one will be an <em>also-ran</em> as well.</p>
<h2 id="span-stylecolor-193f4akennerspiel-des-jahresspan-recommendations"><span style="color: #193F4A;"><em>Kennerspiel des Jahres</em></span> recommendations</h2>
<p>There&rsquo;s three more games that didn&rsquo;t make the cut, but that received a recommendation.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266810" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paladins of the West Kingdom</a>: I was confident that this one would receive a recommendation because of <a href="https://rezensionen-fuer-millionen.blogspot.com/2020/03/paladine-des-westfrankenreichs.html">Udo Bartsch&rsquo;s glowing review</a>, but also confident it&rsquo;s too complex for a nomination.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/262712" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Res Arcana</a>: One of the hottest candidate, no surprise to see it on the list.</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/247763" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Underwater Cities</a>: This one slipped under my radar as a release from the previous year. Also pretty heavy, so a recommendation is the best possible outcome.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="how-good-were-the-predictions-1">How good were the predictions?</h2>
<p>I was <em>pretty</em> happy about my predictions for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, I am <em>very</em> happy with how the <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> turned out. Of the six title on the long list, I missed only one, and I (pretty much) called all three nominations, even though one on the wrong list, and one for a recommendation, not nomination. Still, this is a good outcome, both for my predictions, and for the hobby gaming in general because I think the jury made a fine selection of games that showcase so much of what games have to offer to new players.</p>
<p>This concludes the discussion of this year&rsquo;s nominations for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. I had a lot of fun with it, and I hope so did you. I&rsquo;ll be back in July with <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/">more detailed analyses of the nominees and predictions for the winners</a>!</p>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>And the Spiel des Jahres 2020 goes to…</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/</link>
<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2020 15:35:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/</guid>
<description><p><em><strong>For the impatient</strong></em>: <em>If you don&rsquo;t care about the analysis of previous winners and all you&rsquo;re interested in are the candidates for this year&rsquo;s awards, jump <a href="#candidates-for-span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahresspan">straight to the list</a>…</em></p>
<p>It&rsquo;s that time of year again when the whole board game scene takes a deep look into their crystal balls: On Monday, May 18, the jury <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.com/"><span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></a> will announce the nominees for the game of the year award in Germany. There&rsquo;s a myriad of awards in tabletop gaming, but the <em>red meeple</em> is the one everbody is really after. Even international publishers often prioritise releasing their game in Germany before their home country just so it&rsquo;d be eligible for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. It is <strong>that</strong> important!</p>
<p>Consequently, there are <a href="https://brettspielpoesie.de/spiel-des-jahres-2020-prognose-13298/">many</a> <a href="https://www.abenteuer-brettspiele.de/brettspiel-empfehlungen/spiel-des-jahres-2020-kennerspiel-des-jahres-2020">lists</a> <a href="https://spiele.tips/alle-spiel-des-jahres-2020-brettspiele-im-vergleich">floating</a> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/fyc7xu/what_are_your_predictions_for_spiel_kennerspiel/">all</a> <a href="https://www.brettspielbar.de/bsb049-einstimmung-spiel-des-jahres-2020/">around</a> <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/geeklist/269444/spiel-des-jahres-2020-speculation">the</a> <a href="https://www.boardgameatlas.com/forum/j89cRJl518/what-are-your-spielkennerspiel-des-jahres-2020-predictions">Internet</a> trying to predict this year&rsquo;s nominees. And this is one of them! Most lists are based on the author&rsquo;s experience and taste, but here we try to take a data driven approach: We&rsquo;ll look at the previous winners, try to derive the jury&rsquo;s (implicit or explicit) criteria, and check what current games that meet those criteria have been rated highly.</p>
<p>You&rsquo;ll actually get two for the price of one: since 2011, in addition to the traditional main award <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> that is targeted at casual gamers, there is also the <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> for those who are ready for a (little) more complex game, i.e., &ldquo;connoisseur gamers&rdquo;. There&rsquo;s also a third award <span style="color: #009FE3;"><em><strong>Kinderspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> for children&rsquo;s games, but since the author of these lines doesn&rsquo;t know the first thing about this sector (give it another four or five years), we won&rsquo;t talk further about it.</p>
<p>This is a drama in three acts: First, we&rsquo;ll take a look at <a href="#analysis-of-past-winners">previous winners</a> in order to understand what kind of games the jury likes to honour. Second, we use those criteria to find <a href="#candidates-for-span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahresspan">candidates for this year&rsquo;s <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></a>. And lastly, we&rsquo;ll do the same for the <a href="#candidates-for-span-stylecolor-193f4akennerspiel-des-jahresspan"><span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span></a>. Let&rsquo;s go!</p>
<h1 id="analysis-of-past-winners">Analysis of past winners</h1>
<p>It&rsquo;s worth recalling what the mission statement of <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> is. The target audience are people that buy maybe one game a year which ends up under the Christmas tree and is meant to be played that very evening with the family. This means a game hoping to decorate itself with the red meeple needs to be accessible in every possible way: affordable price point, short rules, quick play time, yet fun for grandchildren and grandparents alike. Luckily for us, BoardGameGeek quantifies about every aspect of games, so let&rsquo;s look in more details into previous winners and how they scored in those criteria.</p>
<h2 id="does-the-community-like-span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahresspan-winners">Does the community like <span style="color: #E30613;"><em>Spiel des Jahres</em></span> winners?</h2>
<p>First, there&rsquo;s the question if the community at BoardGameGeek and the jury <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> are aligned at all. After all, the former is full of mostly US-centric hardcore gamers, while the latter is exclusively concerned with casual gamers in Germany. Still, when we look at how the BGG crowd has rated the award winners over the last years, the jury seems to have done a good job:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/bayes_rating.svg"
	alt="Geek ratings for Spiel des Jahres and Kennerspiel des Jahres winners"
	 />

<p>While not every single game was a hit with the geeks, many <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners score highly, and particularly there&rsquo;s a clear upwards trend visible over the past decade or so. Granted, this is also the case with recent releases in general, but the point remains that German families and American geeks might agree on some games after all.</p>
<p>With that out of the way, let&rsquo;s examine some of our candidates&rsquo; particular features.</p>
<h2 id="how-difficult-can-it-be">How difficult can it be?</h2>
<p>BoardGameGeek quantifies a game&rsquo;s weight or complexity on a scale from 1 (<em>light</em>) to 5 (<em>heavy</em>). Naturally, the accessibility of a <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> pushes them towards the lighter side, though over the years, the jury selected some more complex games as well:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/complexity.svg"
	alt="Complexity of Spiel des Jahres and Kennerspiel des Jahres winners"
	 />

<p>However, recent years have seen a strong trend towards the <em>very</em> light games. In fact, since the introduction of <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> in 2011, only 2012&rsquo;s winner <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/107529" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kingdom Builder</a> exceeded a complexity rating of 2 (<em>medium light</em>) – by 0.07 points. Even said <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>, whose first few winners hovered around a weight of 3 (<em>medium</em>), is drawn more and more towards the 2 mark.</p>
<p>From this we can conclude that the <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span> will have a complexity rating below <strong>2</strong>, whilst the <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span> will not exceed 3 in its compexity, or let&rsquo;s say <strong>3.5</strong>, in case the jury wants to go experimental.</p>
<h2 id="how-long-can-it-take">How long can it take?</h2>
<p>In addition to short rules (start quickly), a <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> should also have a short playing time (play quickly). Again, the data confirm this perception:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/time.svg"
	alt="Playing times of Spiel des Jahres and Kennerspiel des Jahres winners"
	 />

<p>Here, the bands indicate the span of the playing time indicated on the games&rsquo; boxes, while the dashed lines denotes the mean. Playing times are tricky because publishers <em>always</em> lie about them. I suppose they simply don&rsquo;t want to scare away people whose attention spans become ever shorter (thanks for still being with me by the way) with the prospect of sitting through an hour of some ultra nerdy activity. But since everybody lies the same way, we can at least compare games with each other. And again, it becomes obvious how import immediate accessibility is to the jury: The last winner that admitted to having a playing time of more than 45 minutes was 2006&rsquo;s <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/21790" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Thurn and Taxis</a>, and none has exceeded the hour mark since 1999&rsquo;s <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/54" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tikal</a>.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the jury seems to have no problem with longer playing times for a <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. The sweet spot still seems to be around 60 minutes, but even 90 or 120 minutes on the box do not exclude a game from the connoisseurs&rsquo; award.</p>
<p>In conclusion, the <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span> will be playable in under <strong>1 hour</strong>, probably even 45 minutes, whilst the <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span> might take up to <strong>2 hours</strong>.</p>
<h2 id="how-many-players-can-take-part">How many players can take part?</h2>
<p>The <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel</strong></em></span>&rsquo;s character as a family or rather group activity becomes obvious when looking at the supported player counts:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/players.svg"
	alt="Player counts of Spiel des Jahres and Kennerspiel des Jahres winners"
	 />

<!-- TODO: add recommended counts as well? -->
<p><em>Every single winner of either award was playable with 3 and 4 players.</em> It&rsquo;s just what a typical German family looks like, so there&rsquo;s no way the jury will deviate from this pattern. In fact, there&rsquo;s only two games that were even nominated with a different player count, both pure 2-player-games: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/118048" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Targi</a> in 2012 and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/12002" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Jambo</a> in 2005.</p>
<p>Therefore, without a doubt, both <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span> will have to be playable with <strong>3 and 4 players</strong>. (Of course, it&rsquo;s a bonus if a game <em>also</em> works with lower or higher player counts, but 3 and 4 are a <strong>must</strong>.)</p>
<h2 id="how-old-do-they-have-to-be">How old do they have to be?</h2>
<p>As I mentioned above, a <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> should bring together children with their grandparents, yet, somewhat surprisingly, publishers don&rsquo;t always seem to trust their games with the younger audience:</p>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/age.svg"
	alt="Age recommendations of Spiel des Jahres and Kennerspiel des Jahres winners"
	 />

<p>Here the solid line is what&rsquo;s printed on the box, whilst the dotted line is what the community thinks. Similar to playing time, age recommendations are tricky and publishers often have a different opinion on it than players, but usually <em>in the other direction</em>. (It&rsquo;s worth noticing though that often there aren&rsquo;t all that many players that &ldquo;vote&rdquo; on the age recommendations, so take them with a pinch of salt.)</p>
<p>What stands out in this graphic is that <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners often have a recommended age of 12+. Notably, 2016&rsquo;s winner <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/178900" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Codenames</a> has 14+ printed on the box, while the community thinks it&rsquo;s fine to play with children from 10 years of age. Unsurprisingly, the more complex <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> often has a slightly higher age recommendation, although all winners so far stay below the mark of 12 years.</p>
<p>All of this makes it hard to draw a conclusion. <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> winners can typically be played with 8 to 10 year old children, while a <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> can usually be found in the age range from 10 to 12 years. But because of the somewhat erratic age recommendations, we only stipulate a limit of <strong>14 years</strong> for both <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span> and <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span>. Still, one can confidently exclude any game that includes adult topics or themes that might put off the younger or older audience.</p>
<h2 id="summary-of-criteria">Summary of criteria</h2>
<p>OK, now we&rsquo;ve got an understanding of what a game needs to look like if it hopes to win the coveted awards. A <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> needs to</p>
<ul>
<li>have a complexity rating of <strong>2</strong> (<em>medium light</em>) or less and</li>
<li>be playable in under <strong>60 minutes</strong> (better 45 minutes)</li>
<li>by (at least) <strong>3 to 4 players</strong></li>
<li>with a minimum age of at most <strong>14 years old</strong> (better yet 12 or even 10 years old).</li>
</ul>
<p>A <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> needs to</p>
<ul>
<li>have a complexity rating of <strong>3.5</strong> (<em>medium</em>), better 2.5 or less and</li>
<li>be playable in under <strong>120 minutes</strong> (better 90 minutes)</li>
<li>by (at least) <strong>3 to 4 players</strong></li>
<li>with a minimum age of at most <strong>14 years old</strong> (better yet 12).</li>
</ul>
<p>Further, we need to talk about a game&rsquo;s release date. It&rsquo;s actually not that easy to exactly pinpoint which games are eligible for the award as the jury would generally consider games that were released between April 2019 and March 2020<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> <em>into wider German distribution</em>. BoardGameGeek keeps record of the year of first release, which could be a limited first print run in a different market. A game that was released years ago in its homecountry might be nominated for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> years later when it hits the German market. This happened with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/219215" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Werewords</a> which was first released in 2017, but saw a German edition only in early 2019 and was nominated that year. So by simply filtering on the year in the BGG database we might miss some releases, but <em>c&rsquo;est la vie</em>…</p>
<p>Without further ado, let&rsquo;s find some games that meet all those criteria!</p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-e30613spiel-des-jahresspan">Candidates for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em>Spiel des Jahres</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/sdj-2020_huad507e6f34717ce578bd95f63866e0e8_408481_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Spiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<h2 id="gamers-choices">Gamers&rsquo; choices</h2>
<p>First, we&rsquo;ll look at games released in 2019 and 2020, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?complexityMax=2&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;ordering=bgg&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;yearMin=2019">sorted by their rating on BoardGameGeek</a>. When you click on that link, the list you&rsquo;ll see might be very different from what I worked with if some time has passed, so don&rsquo;t be confused if the names you read here are very different. Also, I&rsquo;ll skip any games that are ineligible for one reason or another.</p>
<p>Note that you get essentially the same list when looking at the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?complexityMax=2&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;yearMin=2019">Recommend.Games ratings</a>.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame263918-stylefont-variant-small-capscartographers-a-roll-player-talea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers: A Roll Player Tale</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/263918_hudfa114f90da6f9569a524202244c0da1_5808045_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Cartographers: A Roll Player Tale"
	 />

<p>A roll and write game that can be found on pretty much every list, hence a strong candidate for a nomination. However, its complexity is similar to <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244522" style="font-variant: small-caps;">That&rsquo;s Pretty Clever</a>, so this one might end up on the <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> list instead.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame262543-stylefont-variant-small-capswavelengtha"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/262543" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wavelength</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/262543_huc8957d9edd49512950497af5f6cbbe14_10610770_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Wavelength"
	 />

<p>As a simple and immediate party game, this one is right up the jury&rsquo;s alley when we look at the past years. Some say that a game targeted at large gatherings might be a tough sell while COVID–19 continues to rage, but on the other hand, <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/262543" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Wavelength</a> has proven itself something of a darling for playing via video chat, so I wouldn&rsquo;t discard it. Interestingly, this is another game where the publisher and the players can&rsquo;t agree on the age: the former recommends the game to player of 14 years and up, while the latter believe it&rsquo;s fine for 8-year-olds!</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame270673-stylefont-variant-small-capssilver--golda"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/270673" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Silver &amp; Gold</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/270673_hu8599d2394fd6232fa98ca956489dd584_630989_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Silver &amp; Gold"
	 />

<p>I don&rsquo;t have much information on this one, but theme, weight, and play time all seem <em>very</em> compatible with a <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame264055-stylefont-variant-small-capsdraftosaurusa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/264055" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Draftosaurus</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/264055_hue6ac61244abcd7cecc036d53358947c6_231561_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Draftosaurus"
	 />

<p>As with <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/270673" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Silver &amp; Gold</a>, this game seems almost designed with <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> in mind. Antoine Bauza certainly has quite a collection of big wooden meeples already!</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame273477-stylefont-variant-small-capsobscurioa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/273477" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Obscurio</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/273477_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1217096_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Obscurio"
	 />

<p>This looks very much like <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/181304" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mysterium</a> with a traitor. Both this twist and it&rsquo;s fairly high complexity make it somewhat of a dark horse in the running.</p>
<h2 id="recommended-to-the-jury">Recommended to the jury</h2>
<p>Instead of looking at the community at large, we really want to know what games specifically fit the jury&rsquo;s taste. The best way to achieve this is to feed previous winners, special awards, nominees, and recommendations into <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?complexityMax=2&amp;complexityMin=1&amp;for=S_d_J&amp;playTime=60&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;yearMin=2019">Recommend.Games&rsquo;s engine</a> and see what falls out of this black box! Note that in the list below I skip those games that we already covered above.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284108-stylefont-variant-small-capspicturesa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/284108_hu9ca5c167760da58cc5156745c38f4acf_1528579_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Pictures"
	 />

<p>This game sounds almost like a sandbox full of toys that could engage the whole family. Definitely <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> material!</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame285533-stylefont-variant-small-capsmiyabia"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/285533" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Miyabi</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/285533_hu5140f7ff1e17c7d3400aa367bf026a17_783937_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Miyabi"
	 />

<p>I got very little on this one, but Michael Kiesling sure knows how to design a <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, so why not?</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame283649-stylefont-variant-small-capsdeep-bluea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283649" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Deep Blue</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/283649_hu2cf0dc7276d79115bf044f4c9fc126dc_5220351_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Deep Blue"
	 />

<p>Publisher Days of Wonders can pride themselves with one of the most iconic winners: <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/9209" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Ticket to Ride</a>. This game could mark their return to the nomination list.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame263155-stylefont-variant-small-capsone-keya"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263155" style="font-variant: small-caps;">One Key</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/263155_hu809eb19cd29ed5cf3ca178a145d45f45_89413_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="One Key"
	 />

<p>From the same team as <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/273477" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Obscurio</a>, this one might be a little lighter, a little faster, a little more different, i.e., a stronger contender.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame268620-stylefont-variant-small-capssimiloa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/268620" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Similo</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/268620_hu86edc82d76108b12e7d26bcdf8d2239a_260586_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Similo"
	 />

<p>Another quick and easy game, in this case also very afforable and portable. Overall this could make it a very welcoming introduction into the wonderful world of board games.</p>
<h2 id="my-two-cents">My two cents</h2>
<p>I tried to be as objective as possible with the selection above and let the data do the talking. But let me conclude this list with the three games that I personally think have the highest chance of receiving a nomination for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span>:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284108" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Pictures</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/270673" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Silver &amp; Gold</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/268620" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Similo</a></li>
</ul>
<p>So, those were the ten (plus three) games that, according to the data, should be the most likely to receive a nomination for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. Will the jury be this predictable? We will find out soon! For now, let&rsquo;s move on to the connoisseurs&rsquo; games.</p>
<h1 id="candidates-for-span-stylecolor-193f4akennerspiel-des-jahresspan">Candidates for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em>Kennerspiel des Jahres</em></span></h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/ksdj-2020_huabbfac70d4d236c608c8474b59f0dafe_404506_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020"
	 />

<h2 id="gamers-choices-1">Gamers&rsquo; choices</h2>
<p>As for the main award, we find the community&rsquo;s favourites by looking at the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?complexityMax=3.5&amp;complexityMin=1.5&amp;ordering=bgg&amp;playTime=120&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;yearMin=2019">BoardGameGeek</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?complexityMax=3.5&amp;complexityMin=1.5&amp;playTime=120&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;yearMin=2019">Recommend.Games</a> ratings, which yield similar results.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame262712-stylefont-variant-small-capsres-arcanaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/262712" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Res Arcana</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/262712_hu35e4b380f3ce1570e5366c8c39ff6d21_861221_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Res Arcana"
	 />

<p>While fantasy isn&rsquo;t necessarily the jury&rsquo;s favourite theme, it didn&rsquo;t stop them from giving the award to <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/127398" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Legends of Andor</a> in 2013. Reviewers hold <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/262712" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Res Arcana</a> in high regard, so this is one to watch.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284083-stylefont-variant-small-capsthe-crew-the-quest-for-planet-ninea"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/284083_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_382666_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine"
	 />

<p>This cooperative trick-taking game is pretty much on <em>every</em> list, but usually for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>. However, its complexity clocks in at at 2.2, well beyond what the jury would generally consider for the main award. I believe most experienced gamers underestimate how difficult the concept of trick-taking is to new players, so this game has much higher chances to win <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame265736-stylefont-variant-small-capstiny-townsa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/265736" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tiny Towns</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/265736_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_1355896_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Tiny Towns"
	 />

<p>Another game that appears to be on everybody&rsquo;s mind. Play time and complexity certainly qualify it for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>. Bonus: the characters on the cover practice exemplary social distancing! <sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame269144-stylefont-variant-small-capshadaraa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/269144" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Hadara</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/269144_hued76982870d0836e2537950d63a17c9a_21855_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Hadara"
	 />

<p>Game studio Hans im Glück sure won their share of <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> awards. Could this be their first <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>?</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame241724-stylefont-variant-small-capsvillagersa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/241724" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Villagers</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/241724_hu159a63653b3205ba1f558f160b37c2c6_4913470_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Villagers"
	 />

<p>I don&rsquo;t have much to say about this game either, but the fact that Kosmos recently released a German edition won&rsquo;t harm its chances for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span>.</p>
<h2 id="recommended-to-the-jury-1">Recommended to the jury</h2>
<p>Now let&rsquo;s look at games <a href="https://recommend.games/#/?complexityMax=3.5&amp;complexityMin=1.5&amp;for=S_d_J&amp;playTime=120&amp;playTimeType=max&amp;playerAge=14&amp;playerAgeType=box&amp;playerCount=3&amp;playerCountType=box&amp;yearMax=2020&amp;yearMin=2019">recommended to the jury</a> based on their previous choices, again skipping those that were already mentioned above.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame275467-stylefont-variant-small-capsletter-jama"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/275467" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Letter Jam</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/275467_huac9b8bcc40d9704ef8edb1ad38827231_206261_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Letter Jam"
	 />

<p>This is a tricky one. While it&rsquo;s been lauded as an innovative word game, its many rules and details push its complexity into the realm of <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, while the word / party game genre clearly belongs with <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> (where it&rsquo;s arguably over-represented).</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame277597-stylefont-variant-small-capsfast-slothsa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/277597" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Fast Sloths</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/277597_hu4a1c05ff23d101c624a569d48ef9c6f3_295462_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Fast Sloths"
	 />

<p>The jury clearly is a fan of designer Friedemann Friese&rsquo;s work as evident but many recommendations, but didn&rsquo;t find a game worthy of the big meeple yet. Could this <em>pick me up and deliver me</em> game change their mind?</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame284435-stylefont-variant-small-capsnova-lunaa"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/284435_hu5438825b9b6d1014226d20d231e650c2_894803_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Nova Luna"
	 />

<p>Uwe Rosenberg is another favourite designer for both the community and the jury. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/31260" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Agricola</a> kinda won <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel</strong></em></span> before it even existed (special award &ldquo;Complex Game&rdquo; in 2008), but he&rsquo;s been waiting for a main award ever since. <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a> could be his shot, though abstract games tend to have a hard time with the jury.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame287938-stylefont-variant-small-capskitchen-rusha"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/287938" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Kitchen Rush</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/287938_hu87b54797c8a5edd17fdcb4d2559c4eb5_444363_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Kitchen Rush"
	 />

<p>A real time cooperative worker placement game sounds like a winning combination right from the start, so this is another one to watch. However, theme and premise seem to fit better with <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres</strong></em></span>, but for that it&rsquo;s just too complex.</p>
<h3 id="a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame267813-stylefont-variant-small-capsadventure-games-the-dungeona--a-hrefhttpsrecommendgamesgame267814-stylefont-variant-small-capsmonochrome-inca"><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/267813" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Adventure Games: The Dungeon</a> / <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/267814" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Monochrome Inc.</a></h3>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to/267813_hu5ee8f8a8535ab56170d67de36ffe990b_486374_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpg"
	alt="Adventure Games: The Dungeon"
	 />

<p>Everything about this pair reminds us of the <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/203420" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Exit</a> <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/203417" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Game</a> <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/203416" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Series</a> that won <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres</strong></em></span> in 2017. Hard to tell if that&rsquo;s to the games&rsquo; advantage or disadvantage…</p>
<h2 id="my-two-cents-1">My two cents</h2>
<p>Again, let&rsquo;s wrap this up with my personal daring prediction of the three nominees for <span style="color: #193F4A;"><em><strong>Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020</strong></em></span>:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284083" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/265736" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tiny Towns</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/284435" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nova Luna</a></li>
</ul>
<p>To be honest, I think <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/263918" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cartographers</a> also seems to be a very strong contender, I just cannot decide for which list!</p>
<p>This concludes our list of ten candidates for both awards. I&rsquo;m truly excited to see what we got right and where the jury will surprise us. What games do you think we missed? Is there a <em>very</em> recently released game that might fly under everyone&rsquo;s radar? Let us know and discuss in the comments below!</p>
<p><em>Read <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-2/">Part 2</a> for the actual nominations and how I did with my predictions. Read <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-3/">Part 3</a> for analyses of the nominees and my predictions for the winners. Read <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/posts/and-the-spiel-des-jahres-2020-goes-to-part-4/">Part 4</a> for the winners and conclusion.</em></p>
<p><em>PS</em>: You can find the notebook I used for the graphs and most of the analysis I did above <a href="https://www.kaggle.com/mshepherd/spiel-des-jahres-2020-predictions">on Kaggle</a>.</p>
<h1 id="honourable-mentions">Honourable mentions</h1>
<p>I&rsquo;ll leave you with few games that didn&rsquo;t make it to the lists above for one reason or another, but are still worth keeping an eye on. Some might show up in the recommendations, some in next year&rsquo;s edition. Stay tuned!</p>
<h2 id="latecomers">Latecomers</h2>
<p>Games that were release <em>just</em> before the deadline last year. They might get a second chance (see what I did there?) this year if the year is short on other candidates due to COVID–19.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/269595" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Copenhagen</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/265683" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Second Chance</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="late-to-germany">Late to Germany</h2>
<p>Like I said, it&rsquo;s hard to include in our analysis games that were released earlier, but just arrived to Germany. One sticks out though:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/199042" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Harry Potter: Hogwarts Battle</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="just-outside-the-criteria"><em>Just</em> outside the criteria</h2>
<p>Here I mention some games that didn&rsquo;t make the cut because they are outside one or more of the jury&rsquo;s (hypothetical) criteria. These might still end up on the recommendation lists.</p>
<h3 id="too-special">Too &ldquo;special&rdquo;</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/253344" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Cthulhu: Death May Die</a>: <em>very</em> expensive, plus the horror theme doesn&rsquo;t strike well with the jury</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/245655" style="font-variant: small-caps;">King&rsquo;s Dilemma</a>: 16+ according to the community, just a little too mature</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/275870" style="font-variant: small-caps;">TEAM3 GREEN</a> and <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/247694" style="font-variant: small-caps;">PINK</a>: not quite a general interest game, but already received a <a href="https://www.spiel-des-jahres.de/team-3-bauen-mit-perspektivwechsel/">favourable mention</a> on the jury&rsquo;s website</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="too-complex">Too complex</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/276025" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Maracaibo</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266810" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Paladins of the West Kingdom</a></li>
</ul>
<h3 id="two-player-only">Two player only</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/264241" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Mandala</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/244191" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Nagaraja</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/280132" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Robin of Locksley</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274364" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Watergate</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="comebacks">Comebacks</h2>
<p>While the jury has awarded games before that were reimplementations of previously published games (e.g., <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/6249" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Alhambra</a> in 2003), it still feels less likely, particularly when the new version is very close to the previous release, or it has been on the recommendation list already. But then again, the jury does like a surprise…</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/287954" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Azul: Summer Pavilion</a> (reimplements <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/230802" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Azul</a>)</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/269725" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Corinth</a> (reimplements <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/22345" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Yspahan</a>)</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/270844" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Imperial Settlers: Empires of the North</a> (reimplements <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/154203" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Imperial Settlers</a>)</li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/285894" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Noch mal so gut!</a> (reimplements <a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/206931" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Encore!</a>)</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="too-late">Too late</h2>
<p>There&rsquo;s many games that already stirred quite some interest internationally and can be found on many prediction lists, but that haven&rsquo;t had a German release in time, so won&rsquo;t be eligible this year. It&rsquo;s worth keeping an eye on them for next year though!</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/282524" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Horrified</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/271324" style="font-variant: small-caps;">It&rsquo;s a Wonderful World</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/269385" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-earth</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/285774" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Marvel Champions: The Card Game</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/242529" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Medium</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/269752" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Noctiluca</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/251412" style="font-variant: small-caps;">On Tour</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266524" style="font-variant: small-caps;">PARKS</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274960" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Point Salad</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/266830" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Q.E.</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/274093" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Quirky Circuits</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/267319" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Roam</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/271869" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Sushi Roll</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/264220" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/286096" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tapestry</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/270138" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Terror Below</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/283864" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Trails of Tucana</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/281259" style="font-variant: small-caps;">The Isle of Cats</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/257614" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Tussie Mussie</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recommend.games/#/game/247342" style="font-variant: small-caps;">Village Pillage</a></li>
</ul>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The jury has <a href="https://kulturgutspiel.de/panorama/corona-trifft-spiel-des-jahres-jury-ist-arbeitsfaehig/">stated</a> that the COVID–19 pandemic does not alter the schedule for this year&rsquo;s awards. However, they may not be able to thoroughly test some games that were released close to the March deadline, so those might be considered for <span style="color: #E30613;"><em><strong>Spiel des Jahres 2021</strong></em></span> instead.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>This joke was stolen from <a href="https://rezensionen-fuer-millionen.blogspot.com/2020/04/tiny-towns.html">Udo Bartsch</a>. It was too good to be omitted!&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>About</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/page/about/</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2020 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/page/about/</guid>
<description><h1 id="recommendgames">Recommend.Games</h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/page/about/logo_hu1054fe405cc69d21f02b65a4be3b7355_14244_0x300_resize_box_3.png"
	alt="Recommend.Games"
	style="background-color: white; border-radius: 50%;" />

<p><a href="https://recommend.games/"><strong>Recommend.Games</strong></a> strives to recommend the best board games for you. We take the user ratings from <a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/">BoardGameGeek</a> (BGG), apply some black magic, and present recommendations that suit you. Check out its own <a href="https://recommend.games/#/about">About page</a> to learn more about the details!</p>
<p>If you enjoy our work, please check out the <a href="https://recommend-games.github.io/page/donations/">Donations</a> page or tell your friends about us.</p>
<h1 id="analysis-paralysis">Analysis Paralysis</h1>
<p>This blog takes the data we collect for <a href="https://recommend.games/">Recommend.Games</a> and tries to answer insteresting questions with them (at least we think they are interesting). Everything we do is open source including work in progress, so you can get a sneak peek at upcoming articles on <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/blog">GitLab</a>. Better yet, you can contribute by fixing typos, suggesting new topics or even performing some analyses yourself!</p>
<h1 id="markus-shepherd">Markus Shepherd</h1>

<img
	src="https://recommend-games.github.io/page/about/markus_hu723b16ea8bcd2caa181be474d119d126_169646_0x300_resize_q75_box.jpeg"
	alt="Markus Shepherd"
	style="border-radius: 50%;" />

<p>My name is <a href="https://www.riemannhypothesis.info/about/me/">Markus Shepherd</a> (né Schepke) and I&rsquo;m a mathematician 🧮 turned AI developer 👨🔬 and board game enthusiast 🎲 from 🇩🇪 Germany living in 🇫🇮 Finland with my wife 👩⚕️ and our daughters Stella ✨ und Luna 🌝.</p>
<p>I&rsquo;m all over the internet, so if you want to get in touch, you have a choice of platforms where I will probably forget to respond. Please don&rsquo;t take it personally. 🤷</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://boardgamegeek.com/user/Markus%20Shepherd">BoardGameGeek</a></li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/MarkusRShepherd">Twitter</a></li>
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<li><a href="https://gitlab.com/mshepherd">GitLab</a></li>
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<li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/markusschepke">LinkedIn</a></li>
<li><a href="https://wise.com/pay/me/markuss1">Wise</a></li>
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</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>Donations</title>
<link>https://recommend-games.github.io/page/donations/</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2020 12:00:00 +0300</pubDate><author>[email protected] (Recommend.Games)</author>
<guid>https://recommend-games.github.io/page/donations/</guid>
<description><p><a href="https://recommend.games/#/">Recommend.Games</a> and <a href="https://blog.recommend.games/">Analysis Paralysis</a> always have been and always will be 100% open source and free from paywalls, ads or tracking. If you find some value in what we&rsquo;re doing and your finances allow you to support us with server costs etc, you can do so by donating through any of the links below (Wise and PayPal allow us to keep most of your donation):</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://wise.com/pay/me/markuss1">Wise</a></li>
<li><a href="https://paypal.me/mschepke">PayPal</a></li>
<li><a href="https://patreon.com/mshepherd">Patreon</a></li>
<li><a href="https://ko-fi.com/mshepherd">Ko-fi</a></li>
<li><a href="https://liberapay.com/mshepherd/">Liberapay</a></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/sponsors/MarkusShepherd">GitHub sponsors</a></li>
</ul>
<p>If you&rsquo;d rather donate to a charity of your choice, why not give some money to an organisation that promotes a more diverse, sustainable and loving world on our behalf?</p>
<p>Finally, you can always support us for free by sharing our content, giving feedback or contributing to our projects on <a href="https://gitlab.com/recommend.games/">GitLab</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Thank you for your support!</strong> 🙏</p>
</description>
</item>
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